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Thread summary:

United Sates economic recession greatest since great depression, state of US economy, great depression far worse than current economy, great depression versus current market

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Old 12-28-2008, 01:47 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnix View Post
My grandpa is 80 years old and I asked him what this current downfall is equivlent to. He said he doesnt even remember the ones in the 70's and 80's. In the 70's and 80's he had three jobs and taught co-ed class and helped students get jobs. He compared our current to the one of the 1930's.
I mean for cripes sakes you gotta gimme something...

If he is in his 80's he was not working then and he's not working now?

Pretty weak argument, as back then he was too young to work and now I hope he does not need to.

Did his folks take in borders back then? Has he got some now?

Did his folks pull all their cash out of the bank back then when there was a run? Was he in line at the IndyMac after Chuck Schummer's comment's?


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Old 12-28-2008, 01:54 PM
 
Location: Sanford, FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
I mean for cripes sakes you gotta gimme something...

If he is in his 80's he was not working then and he's not working now?

Pretty weak argument, as back then he was too young to work and now I hope he does not need to.

Did his folks take in borders back then? Has he got some now?

Did his folks pull all their cash out of the bank back then when there was a run? Was he in line at the IndyMac after Chuck Schummer's comment's?


His parents were always employed in the 1930's and were indeed renting out families. How long do you think the great depression would have lasted if not for World War 2?
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Old 12-28-2008, 01:59 PM
 
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WWII or Presidents with sane economic policies instead of one with his thumb up his bung hole and another with a penchant for stupid make-work that lefties still long for?

Still have not heard that grandpa is renting out rooms?

Seriously, other than the fact that, if he is anything like most the oldsters I know he watches way too much of the 24 hr news stations, does he have ANYTHING solid to report about the 30's being similar to the current situation?
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Old 12-28-2008, 02:30 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,555,115 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
I don't like to cite personal situations too often, because I do post on the Chicago specific forums too, but I have relatives in various sectors that'll be fine too -- employees of municipalities, health care workers, even the broad "food maker/marketer" categories are also very resistant to decline.
What is your point?

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Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
Certain parts of even troubled segments will hold opportunity for many.
Again what is your point?

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Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
Of course if the "doomers" win alternative energy will be figuring out how tap into the survivalists latrine trenches and capture the methane not the sort of capital intensive high tech initiatives that traditionally flourish in eras of cheap money and economic disruption....
Huh? There seems to be no middle ground with you. You're filled with hyperbole on both extremes...

Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
I think I've caught humanoid mention he'd like to shop for a house once prices come down....
Yes and...?

Whenever you post its rarely clear what your point is.... Some people are doing fine right now so everything is fine? Even during the depression 70% had jobs... How auntie Sally is doing really isn't relevant... These aren't the sort of observations that are going to help you preserve your capital, these aren't the sort of observations that are going to help you in business. They are pointless as far as the general economy is concerned.
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Old 12-28-2008, 03:07 PM
 
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If you accuse me of using hyperbole to mock the "sky is falling" crowd, then yep, guilty as charged.

I think you'd have to be pretty extreme to think my accounts of real people are their real situations are overly optimistic. I have no doubt that other poster have the same sorts of friends/neighbors that really need not do anything out of the ordinary to maintain their lifestyle. It is important to hammer on that, because the danger of foolish REACTIONARY thinking COULD push many people into situations that will harm them and the broader society.

The anecdotal evidence I cite of people that I know pretty well in the Chicago region that really have no need to do anything special because of the melt down in the MBSs market and the subsequent collapse of certain firms is offered up as evidence that many individuals have experienced NO disruption to their lives. NONE.

As further OPINION I do think that there is ample evidence that SKILLS are as valuable now as ever -- just because some folks may be toiling away in an industry that is facing hard times there is every reason to believe that folks that take charge of their own skills can do take advantage of opportunities that will arise. Again, I think when there is widespread OPTIMISM people tend to move easily into alternative careers, but when times are tougher it is good to remind people that such moves STILL make sense.

This is vastly different than sitting on the sidelines fretting about the "doom that awaits us all". It is also fundamentally different than cheering on the train wreck of dropping asset prices HOPING to swoop in at a very low bottom. One strikes me as distinctly non-productive toward the broader societal good...

Convincing the Aunt Sallies of the world that their house is dropping in value like a lead balloon and their 401K is never going to recover in value is the sort of thing that HURTS not just her but anybody else that depends on / believes in real estate & personal retirement accounts.

Shouting that real estate is over valued similarly is an effort to stampeded people into selling into a falling market. That leads to further erosion of value. I tend not to mind those that "whisper" about the asset situation, nor do I make a big deal over those that state (correctly) that some markets are either stable or increasing in value, though I believe these areas are increasingly rare.

The current situation does not have enough people willing to recall that tough financial times happen fairly often. The heights to which our economy had soared after an unprecedented period of expansion DESPITE some challenges goes along way to explaining why the scale of the difficulties has been so large. Yet, even with the fall back, there ought to be HUGE confidence in the liklihood of the US remaining the best hope for people that want financial independence.

OT1H I don't feel quite the need to dismiss someone who fundamentally believes that owning a home in the US still makes a lot sense as shelter, yet OTOH some one who seems to enjoy spreading around the bad news in an effort to get prices down to where they want to get into the market seem in some ways more contemptible than fools who wants to go live off the land.

Clear enough?
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Old 12-28-2008, 03:58 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
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Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
The anecdotal evidence I cite of people that I know pretty well in the Chicago region that really have no need to do anything special because of the melt down in the MBSs market and the subsequent collapse of certain firms is offered up as evidence that many individuals have experienced NO disruption to their lives. NONE.
Yeah, and? Nobody, not even the extreme "doomers" have stated that everyone will and/or has been disrupted by the current crisis. So there are some people that haven't been disrupted, so what?

My life has yet to be disrupted by the current crisis (well, me and my wife have both seen interest rate increases/limit cuts on resolving credit but this has no direct effect on us). But so what? Doesn't mean I'm not going to make plans for a sort of worse case situation. I have already acted to preserve capital, while others were losing in the equity markets I was gaining in the bond market, CDs etc. If I took your head in the sand approach, I would've lost around 35%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
This is vastly different than sitting on the sidelines fretting about the "doom that awaits us all". It is also fundamentally different than cheering on the train wreck of dropping asset prices HOPING to swoop in at a very low bottom. One strikes me as distinctly non-productive toward the broader societal good...
People don't act towards the "broader societal good", which nowadays seems to mean protecting oldsters entitlements. I'll tell you what, us youngsters don't care about your entitlements and will gladly eat your lunch. Get ready for it...if you don't you'll be left without a lunch = )


Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
Convincing the Aunt Sallies of the world that their house is dropping in value like a lead balloon and their 401K is never going to recover in value is the sort of thing that HURTS not just her but anybody else that depends on / believes in real estate & personal retirement accounts.
Haha, yes it does doesn't it? And again, remind me why us youngsters should care? Cheap real estate benefits us long term, a crash in the stock market benefits us long term. You need to protect that sandwich....or its going to be gone before you know it. We (us younger folks) aren't going to act for your greater good, we are going to act against it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
Shouting that real estate is over valued similarly is an effort to stampeded people into selling into a falling market. That leads to further erosion of value.
Haha! So we are suppose to keep quite and let people buy overpriced houses that is going to hurt them personally for the greater good of society (err....baby boomers).


Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
OT1H I don't feel quite the need to dismiss someone who fundamentally believes that owning a home in the US still makes a lot sense as shelter, yet OTOH some one who seems to enjoy spreading around the bad news in an effort to get prices down to where they want to get into the market seem in some ways more contemptible than fools who wants to go live off the land.
I don't talk about real estate or the economy at large in some sort of effort to "get prices down to where I want". That is just absurd...really. Furthermore, if prices don't come down to what I consider a good value here locally, then no skin off my bones. I will simply move to an area where I consider housing a better value.
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Old 12-28-2008, 08:05 PM
 
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The generational stuff ain't gonna work for at least the next four years. The "entitlements" are largely non-issues with the new administration being much more hemmed in by the market realities AND the folks that brought 'em to the dance. Basically all but the real hard right types of the CATO institute have given up on major changes.

My lunch, your lunch, they are pretty much the same if productivity doesn't increase and fewer young uneducated types don't make their way into legitimate careers. This is not an age situation so much as it is a problem with those that "get it" in terms of having something to show for their work have real assets vs those that pile up debt and walk away from it.

When it comes to managing retirement savings, there are an almost limitless number of ways to move between asset classes. For somebody my age I probably have a bit more in fixed income categories than the general formula suggests, but I got there because I put proceeds from the sale of investment properties into the only thing that looked like it had no downside at the time. I have to say that it was neither "head in the sand" lack of planning nor some ultra-sophisticated analysis that got me into that, just a little bit of research at the public library. btw -- if using message boards to talk down assets is not absurd, but a sometimes effective use of time you'd be in good company: Whole Foods Is Hot, Wild Oats a Dud -- So Said 'Rahodeb' - WSJ.com
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Old 12-28-2008, 09:50 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
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Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
The generational stuff ain't gonna work for at least the next four years.
Why is that? Are oldsters not going to retire and are young people going to live in caves for the next 4 years? This isn't some big conspiracy theory....the youngsters aren't going to act in the benefit of the oldsters rather themselves.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
My lunch, your lunch, they are pretty much the same if productivity doesn't increase and fewer young uneducated types don't make their way into legitimate careers.
Certainly in some sense all generations require a functioning economy etc, but what benefits one generation may hurt another. For example high real estate hurts the younger while benefiting the older.

Ultimately the younger will eat the oldsters lunch.
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Old 12-28-2008, 10:21 PM
 
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I'd say that the same time frame the 70's recession was much worse. Much higher unempolymant and very high inflation. I don't see that with the younger genration yakin g over as that is why they want income redistribtuion. The first generation doing worse than their parents. But not all so I see a growing income gap with the middlle calss having less memebrs.
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Old 12-29-2008, 01:16 AM
 
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
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Great Depression 2009 Follows $30 Trillion Deflation :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website
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