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Thread summary:

United Sates economic recession greatest since great depression, state of US economy, great depression far worse than current economy, great depression versus current market

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Old 12-29-2008, 07:09 AM
 
28,453 posts, read 73,469,597 times
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I get a kick out of those kinds of "advisers" --

"virtually impossible to overstate the dire consequences resulting from the severity of the declines recently experienced" Uh, seems to me that is exactly what is happening -- overstatement.

"Collapses of this magnitude do not recover until after elongated periods of basing and repair" ... "which means that it will likely end in four years." Wow, four years now counts as an "elongated period"? What about 30 year bonds???

"If we have learned anything from our current predicament it is that we cannot rely on the ‘experts for guidance." Wait, does that mean the adviser is NOT an expert, or simply a new kind of expert we can rely on???

"I think it will dip to 0.2:1 which would place gold around $5000/oz which might be enough to peg currencies to account for the world's remaining wealth." Ahhh, a gold bug. That's the ticket...
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Old 12-29-2008, 08:16 AM
 
Location: Nebraska
4,178 posts, read 9,644,312 times
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I think that what few people are realizing is that the entire economy of the US is different than in the 1930's.

Manufacturing and industry were the key components of employment then. Everything from coal mining to steelworking. Farmers were the ones who 'made out' - IF the weather participated. But many city people didn't have the restrictive ordinances they have now, even folks who lived in slums and 'row houses' had the ability to grow their own vegetables. Canning, quilting, and self-sufficiency were a way of life, of making up for what one didn't have. People were ashamed to have government food provided for them. Credit was an impossible dream for most, cash was the sole qualifier for housing, food, clothing...

Instead now we have people who have lived entire generations on food stamps, with the entitlement and the "gotta have it now" mindset, whose credit is solely dependent on the fact that the government guarantees that they will always have an income. Many people have $5,000 credit or more on their maxed-out credit cards. Most of the people employed in the US are employed in service jobs, jobs that "sell" either a service like advising or caretaking or government jobs, or jobs that sell products that are not manufactured here but elsewhere. Products that have built in obsolescence and rapid deterioration. Few are self-sufficient in any sense of the word - cannot turn their old clothes into quilts, cannot grow and can their own produce, cannot even chop wood to heat their homes - their very survival is predicated on the government and/or whether or not the industries that provide for them - everything from electric and gas companies to Wal Mart - stay in business and do not escalate their prices far above what they can afford.

Not only that, but are you aware that, after three months, those on unemployment compensation fall off of the 'unemployment lists' sent to the States and the FedGov? They may be unemployed, may even still be receiving benefits, but they are no longer considered to be on the reported rolls of the unemployed? This automatically skews any "unemployment statistics".

IF there is any sudden shift - be it by a natural disaster, a pandemic, a multifaceted terrorist attack (as has been predicted), or a drastic downturn in purchasing and therefore employment in the primarily service environment in which we now live - there will be a much more severe impact in the nation's economy. An economy based on service instead of production has a more difficult time recovering, simply because there is nothing to sell and no one to whom to sell it. Those who are already maxed out on their credit will fail to pay back, which will more severely impact the banks than even the hyperactivity of the "Roaring 20's" impacted the banks of 1929. Those who cannot fend for themselves will either apply to the State for relief in such quantities that they will bankrupt an already precarious Welfare syatem - or will take to finding relief in the pockets of others, legally or illegally.

The base causes of the Depression of 1929 and the causes of the predicted 2009 Depression are very similar - overextension, overconfidence, manipulation, and fiscal hedonism. The differences will have a much more impressive impact, simply because so many lives are so precariously balanced on the pinnacles of service (non-productive) industry, government-dependent income, and high credit balances based on nothing usable or sellable. A sudden and violent impact, either natural or man-made, would have much more far-reaching consequences. Couple that with a multi-generational and widespread-across-socioeconomic-lines of entitlement, and you will see a much more devastating and long lasting fiscal impact.

The recession of the 1970s and 80's, the dot-com boom and bust, the Enron debacle, the McMansion everyone-deserves-a-home deregulation of the loan industry, and the resultant bailouts of the big three and the banking industry, were mere fiscal thunderings of the storm clouds gathering. And this storm was brought about by the gentle, loving breezes of a Congress that manipulated the shipping of our manufacturing jobs overseas, their insistence on that the few should provide for the many, and that people who did not work or earn an income based on effort and achievement, production and capability, as well as growing and expanding upon resources, were nevertheless "entitled" to whatever they wanted - from CEOs of corporations, through unions, down to the Welfare dependent generations. Meanwhile, local and State governments bought into the Federal Government's handouts and restrictions on private enterprise and development... rather than making people pay their own way, from industries to developers, they are dependent on Federal subsidies that will eventually break the "bank" - and backs of the taxpayers.

There. Bust that "doom, gloom, and rumors of boom" outlook if you will.

Last edited by SCGranny; 12-29-2008 at 08:21 AM.. Reason: Spelling as usual dangit
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Old 12-29-2008, 09:18 AM
 
28,453 posts, read 73,469,597 times
Reputation: 18485
My goodness can you people not even use google!

Nothing is hidden. The BLS reports all the details: Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
The Editor's Desk
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ils/pdf/opbils67.pdf
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Old 12-29-2008, 10:10 AM
Rei
 
Location: Los Angeles
494 posts, read 1,649,461 times
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Quote:
Shouting that real estate is over valued similarly is an effort to stampeded people into selling into a falling market. That leads to further erosion of value.
But real estate IS overpriced...
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Old 12-29-2008, 11:17 AM
 
Location: where you sip the tea of the breasts of the spinsters of Utica
8,299 posts, read 12,545,261 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
My goodness can you people not even use google!

Nothing is hidden. The BLS reports all the details: Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
The Editor's Desk
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ils/pdf/opbils67.pdf
This is interesting. U6 claims to include discouraged workers of two types plus those who involuntarily have temp employment, but Shadowstats appears to claim that there are still other discouraged workers not included in U6. Perhaps the difference is in the disabled?

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Old 12-29-2008, 02:39 PM
 
Location: Nebraska
4,178 posts, read 9,644,312 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chet everett View Post
My goodness can you people not even use google!

Nothing is hidden. The BLS reports all the details: Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
The Editor's Desk
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ils/pdf/opbils67.pdf
No, nothing is hidden. Underreported, misemphasized, and promulgated to support this, that or the other agenda - but not hidden. People criticize the evil media all of the time for their misrepresentation of the facts and even their blatant yellow journalism - but WHO stopped reading the papers until they dumbed them down first to sixth grade reading level, then fourth grade reading levels? Who only pays attention to what their chosen talking heads are raving about today, and who can't make connections from last year, much less the last decade?
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Old 12-29-2008, 02:56 PM
 
Location: Harrisonville
1,831 posts, read 2,161,241 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John1960 View Post
In the Great Depression, many Americans lined up for food and soup. In the current economic crisis, many Americans line up to shop for bargains.

Although political and economic leaders have told us the current recession is America’s greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression, the two events are not comparable.

Mobile Breaking Oklahoma News | NewsOK.com

That's right, but this has barely started.
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