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Seemed like lots of folks were eager to make some pretty harsh predictions last year. Fortunately not too many came into being.
Personally I rather read what other are saying, as I it more fun to throw darts then to try and catch 'em but I am game.
I will predict that the Fed will work very hard to keep working their enormously complicated schemes to maintain low rates on the the securities they use to finance our national debt. I would be shocked if short term rates move up more than 1.5% and long term rates are similarly constrained.
The ties between the rates on such Treasuries and mortgage rates are as weak as ever, but given that I see enormous political problems is mortgage rates move up I will risk saying they will be as flat as Treasuries and I suspect the average rate will remain no higher than 6% on 30 yr fixed conforming loans in 12 months time...
I guess that leaves equities and I really have a heard time understanding why so many stock prices are staying as high as they are, but with my prediction for interest rates to remain low I just don't see why anyone would sell or where they could do better SO I have to say the DJIA will probably end 2010 at at least 10,000 and quite possible as high as 12,000.
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