U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 12-30-2008, 07:56 AM
 
458 posts, read 714,339 times
Reputation: 156

Advertisements

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106331/No-Growth-in-China-and-Other-Outrageous-Prophecies (broken link)

About the same as a 5,000 Dow...

Interesting!
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 12-30-2008, 10:49 AM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,115 posts, read 16,249,098 times
Reputation: 3705
I looked at their predictions at the end of 2007 for 2008. As figured, some stuck to the wall and some didn't....

They predicted Ron Paul would be president in 2008 (false)

They predicted 3 major homebuilders to go bankrupt (false)

They said oil would remain "firmly to the upside" at 175/barrel (false)

To the OP this is not "interesting", this is just another monkey throwing darts....
Please don't waste our time w/these baseless predictions.

Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions 2008 - Investor (http://investor.saxobank.com/blogs/investor/pages/saxo-bank-s-outrageous-predictions-2008.aspx - broken link)

Last edited by CouponJack; 12-30-2008 at 11:11 AM..
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-30-2008, 02:16 PM
 
458 posts, read 714,339 times
Reputation: 156
Quote:
Originally Posted by CouponJack View Post
I looked at their predictions at the end of 2007 for 2008. As figured, some stuck to the wall and some didn't....

They predicted Ron Paul would be president in 2008 (false)

They predicted 3 major homebuilders to go bankrupt (false)

They said oil would remain "firmly to the upside" at 175/barrel (false)

To the OP this is not "interesting", this is just another monkey throwing darts....
Please don't waste our time w/these baseless predictions.

Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions 2008 - Investor (http://investor.saxobank.com/blogs/investor/pages/saxo-bank-s-outrageous-predictions-2008.aspx - broken link)
Wow, what a busy guy! Clipping Coupons I take it?

Regarding Oil Prices, they predicted 175 when it was at 85, they were in the right direction, as was the prediction the S&P would fall.

But, you should read a little deeper into the link you posted, it says:

Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions 2008 - Investor (http://investor.saxobank.com/blogs/investor/pages/saxo-bank-s-outrageous-predictions-2008.aspx - broken link)

Remember though, these predictions are made more in an attempt to provoke thought than at accuracy!

I guess the failed in provoking anything from you, except for putting your foot in your mouth...
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-30-2008, 03:00 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,115 posts, read 16,249,098 times
Reputation: 3705
No need to get huffy because you didn't like my comments.


So, when their wrong, they claim "more in an attempt to provoke", but when their right, they should take credit????

No putting foot in anyone's mouth.

Again, useless info from a talking head.

They didn't provoke anything except wasting everyone's time w/useless info......

Point being, they are just another monkey throwing darts.....
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-30-2008, 03:16 PM
 
10,887 posts, read 8,891,138 times
Reputation: 9722
I think a 5,000 low doesn't occur next year if it occurs at all. It would likely happen when the government stimulus runs out after 2010. There's a large double top from 7400 to 14000 on the Dow. That top took 8 years to form, and it won't break down quickly.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-30-2008, 03:31 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,115 posts, read 16,249,098 times
Reputation: 3705
Ichoro, one thing I disagree w/you is that the market will have already priced in the bottom way before the stimulus runs out. If your waiting for that, you'll miss most of the big gains from the bottom.

Could the dow goto 5000? Possibly.....

The masses did not predict 8500 at the end of this year so I guess anything is possible, right?
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-30-2008, 04:33 PM
 
10,887 posts, read 8,891,138 times
Reputation: 9722
The market collapsed by 50 percent after the New Deal ended in 1937.

We've just had a 50 percent market collapse after the failure of the Bush-Greenspan-Bernanke attempt to reflate the economy after the Equity Bubble. They threw the kitchen sink at the economy including inflating a new bubble in Real Estate. They spent massively on tax cuts ($176 billion/yr), two wars ($150 billion/yr), increasing military budgets ($265 billion/yr), and domestic spending ($260 billion/3 yrs on transportation).

I expect the Obama reflation effort to boost the economy for a shorter duration, perhaps as long as two years.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-30-2008, 07:02 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,115 posts, read 16,249,098 times
Reputation: 3705
Obama isn't going to shut off the spigots fighting the Afgans (he'll probably increase spending) and he's still going to put alot of money into Iraq for the forseeable future.

Obama will also probably not let the current Bush Tax cuts sunset (because that's what he campained on, right? )

The fear that I have is that all these "infrastructure" projects will end up being like the bridge to nowhere.....if you looked at all the pork (non-infrastructure) that mayors from around the country submitted, I think I just might be right.

I haven't even gotten into the massive inflation that I fear is coming.....

I pray for our country that we get out of this mess w/o too much damage.

However, in regards to the markets, some say we've hit a bottom, some say there's still some downside left to go.....I honestly don't know in the short term.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-30-2008, 07:11 PM
 
458 posts, read 714,339 times
Reputation: 156
Quote:
Originally Posted by CouponJack View Post
No need to get huffy because you didn't like my comments.


So, when their wrong, they claim "more in an attempt to provoke", but when their right, they should take credit????

No putting foot in anyone's mouth.

Again, useless info from a talking head.

They didn't provoke anything except wasting everyone's time w/useless info......

Point being, they are just another monkey throwing darts.....

You didn't get the post and that is fine. How did you know they use monkeys?

I believe the stock market will have a 2nd wave down in the spring. We have had almost no bounce off the October lows. Very ominous. 5K is a real possibility. I would not worry about missing the next up move. When it happens it will last for several years, no hurry on that. I would worry about getting into a market with a situation much like Japan in the 1990's. Get it too early and you not get back to even for 20 years.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-30-2008, 07:44 PM
 
Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,115 posts, read 16,249,098 times
Reputation: 3705
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winkelman View Post
. How did you know they use monkeys? .
My point was the analysts at that bank you posted are no better at making predictions than a bunch of monkeys throwing darts at a dartboard...



Quote:
Originally Posted by Winkelman View Post
. I believe the stock market will have a 2nd wave down in the spring. We have had almost no bounce off the October lows. Very ominous. 5K is a real possibility. I would not worry about missing the next up move. When it happens it will last for several years, no hurry on that. I would worry about getting into a market with a situation much like Japan in the 1990's. Get it too early and you not get back to even for 20 years.

So you believe we still have another 45% to drop yet (on top of a 40% drop)? I'm not so sure about that......we'll see.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2021, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top