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I think a 5,000 low doesn't occur next year if it occurs at all. It would likely happen when the government stimulus runs out after 2010. There's a large double top from 7400 to 14000 on the Dow. That top took 8 years to form, and it won't break down quickly.
Ichoro, one thing I disagree w/you is that the market will have already priced in the bottom way before the stimulus runs out. If your waiting for that, you'll miss most of the big gains from the bottom.
Could the dow goto 5000? Possibly.....
The masses did not predict 8500 at the end of this year so I guess anything is possible, right?
The market collapsed by 50 percent after the New Deal ended in 1937.
We've just had a 50 percent market collapse after the failure of the Bush-Greenspan-Bernanke attempt to reflate the economy after the Equity Bubble. They threw the kitchen sink at the economy including inflating a new bubble in Real Estate. They spent massively on tax cuts ($176 billion/yr), two wars ($150 billion/yr), increasing military budgets ($265 billion/yr), and domestic spending ($260 billion/3 yrs on transportation).
I expect the Obama reflation effort to boost the economy for a shorter duration, perhaps as long as two years.
Obama isn't going to shut off the spigots fighting the Afgans (he'll probably increase spending) and he's still going to put alot of money into Iraq for the forseeable future.
Obama will also probably not let the current Bush Tax cuts sunset (because that's what he campained on, right? )
The fear that I have is that all these "infrastructure" projects will end up being like the bridge to nowhere.....if you looked at all the pork (non-infrastructure) that mayors from around the country submitted, I think I just might be right.
I haven't even gotten into the massive inflation that I fear is coming.....
I pray for our country that we get out of this mess w/o too much damage.
However, in regards to the markets, some say we've hit a bottom, some say there's still some downside left to go.....I honestly don't know in the short term.
No need to get huffy because you didn't like my comments.
So, when their wrong, they claim "more in an attempt to provoke", but when their right, they should take credit????
No putting foot in anyone's mouth.
Again, useless info from a talking head.
They didn't provoke anything except wasting everyone's time w/useless info......
Point being, they are just another monkey throwing darts.....
You didn't get the post and that is fine. How did you know they use monkeys?
I believe the stock market will have a 2nd wave down in the spring. We have had almost no bounce off the October lows. Very ominous. 5K is a real possibility. I would not worry about missing the next up move. When it happens it will last for several years, no hurry on that. I would worry about getting into a market with a situation much like Japan in the 1990's. Get it too early and you not get back to even for 20 years.
My point was the analysts at that bank you posted are no better at making predictions than a bunch of monkeys throwing darts at a dartboard...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winkelman
. I believe the stock market will have a 2nd wave down in the spring. We have had almost no bounce off the October lows. Very ominous. 5K is a real possibility. I would not worry about missing the next up move. When it happens it will last for several years, no hurry on that. I would worry about getting into a market with a situation much like Japan in the 1990's. Get it too early and you not get back to even for 20 years.
So you believe we still have another 45% to drop yet (on top of a 40% drop)? I'm not so sure about that......we'll see.
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