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Old 01-10-2009, 12:47 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,553,414 times
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The government isn't the one using that comparison, rather people in the media.
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Old 01-10-2009, 12:50 PM
 
Location: Seattle, WA
209 posts, read 548,905 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid View Post
Yes the article gives shadowstats some credibility which is precisely the problem, in much the same way they gave used house sales men credibility. Both don't deserve it.

Regarding the government figures, what is there not to believe? They tell you precisely how they collect the data. There is no deception, unless of course you think the government doesn't collect data in the way they suggest they do.

On the other hand is shadowstats forth coming with their methodology? No, because its idiotic. They use the government data and simply pad it percentage wise to come up with the "alternative". You'll notice now ironically the "alternative data" follows the official data, modulo a certain percentage.
But, hey good conspiracies apparently sell subscriptions.
Are you saying the U.S. government is not expanding the money supply at a rate that is much greater than reported or that the U.S. government would get no benefit from giving watered down statistics in a time of crisis?
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Old 01-10-2009, 06:55 PM
 
242 posts, read 673,688 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
Finally the MSM is waking up and posting some "real" numbers as calculated before the government added their "modifications".

Great Depression jobs parallel may not be far flung | U.S. | Reuters

snippet:
"Figures collected for Reuters by John Williams, from the electronic newsletter Shadowstats.com, suggest that, while we are not there yet, the comparison is not as outlandish as it might initially seem.

By his count, if unemployment were still tallied the way it was in the 1930s, today's jobless rate would be closer to 16.5 percent -- more than double the stated rate."

and they never mention it took two years for unemployment to get to 20%...2 years. Even at 7.2% it is higher than it was back then.
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Old 01-11-2009, 12:43 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,553,414 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BankREO View Post
Are you saying the U.S. government is not expanding the money supply at a rate that is much greater than reported or that the U.S. government would get no benefit from giving watered down statistics in a time of crisis?
What the FED is doing with the money supply is reported. The US has no real benefit from giving watered down statistics in a time of crisis, because if anybody found out it would create great mistrust that would make matters worse.

Its possible to have effective monetary policy/fiscal policy without reliable information.
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Old 01-11-2009, 12:01 PM
 
Location: Seattle, WA
209 posts, read 548,905 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid View Post
What the FED is doing with the money supply is reported. The US has no real benefit from giving watered down statistics in a time of crisis, because if anybody found out it would create great mistrust that would make matters worse.

Its possible to have effective monetary policy/fiscal policy without reliable information.
Okay, I'll give you the first point, but for the record, they do not publish M3 (MZM is the sort of close) and at this point, that would be helpful information.

On your second point, I do not believe we are using "effective" monetary policy at this point so that data could be rubbish to make the problem not look so bad (if that is possible?). Also, the policy being administered clearly has not been to help the US but more to help the banking system that should of been left to fail so the prudent banks would rise. As long as we throw good money at bad banks, you prevent good banks from taking their place. (That's in Lombard Street the book BTW)
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Old 01-11-2009, 12:58 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
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Originally Posted by BankREO View Post
... they do not publish M3 (MZM is the sort of close) and at this point, that would be helpful information.
They don't publish it because they don't think its useful. I don't think its useful either, it really doesn't indicate anything. What is it a leading indicator of? Inflationary problems? no....recession? no...then what?
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Old 01-11-2009, 01:45 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 74,672,087 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid View Post
They don't publish it because they don't think its useful. I don't think its useful either, it really doesn't indicate anything. What is it a leading indicator of? Inflationary problems? no....recession? no...then what?
M3 tells you the total amount of all money in the system. Just because you don't think it's useful doesn't mean others can't make use of it. All the Fed "printing of money" shows up in M3.

Money supply - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
snippet:
M3: M2 + large time deposits, institutional money-market funds, short-term repurchase agreements, along with other larger liquid assets
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Old 01-11-2009, 01:56 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,553,414 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
Just because you don't think it's useful doesn't mean others can't make use of it.
Great, so what is it useful for? And by that I mean what is it a leading indicator for?

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
All the Fed "printing of money" shows up in M3.
You don't need M3 to know what the FED is doing with the money supply. And this is the irony with the people that claim that they stopped because some sort of conspiracy to hide how much money it was creating.

They stopped because they didn't find it useful and historically it hasn't been.
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Old 01-11-2009, 01:59 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 3,553,414 times
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By the way everything the FED is doing can be found here:

Markets - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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Old 01-11-2009, 03:37 PM
 
Location: Seattle, WA
209 posts, read 548,905 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid View Post
Great, so what is it useful for? And by that I mean what is it a leading indicator for?


You don't need M3 to know what the FED is doing with the money supply. And this is the irony with the people that claim that they stopped because some sort of conspiracy to hide how much money it was creating.

They stopped because they didn't find it useful and historically it hasn't been.
Because we are issuing a debt-based currency into a fractional reserve banking system. The point is that we do not create the interest when the principle is brought into existence so when the interest has to come due, it will of come from the new issuance of currency which will create perpetual debt. Sounds like an oppressive monetary system.
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