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Old 01-14-2009, 12:24 PM
 
268 posts, read 374,354 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dd714 View Post
Ohhhkay, thank you for contributing to the discussion. You can return to the politics forum now. You can post on how Bush caused the last earthquake or something.

why dont you answer the question?
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Old 01-14-2009, 01:29 PM
 
2,541 posts, read 10,527,941 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
Well demand is low and gas has dropped alot. Seems to confoirm that demand and supply determines the price more than most comodities.
How do you know the demand is low?

is there some kind of an official report in the papers about it or on the Dept of Energies website?

I have noticed a lot of people who have stopped using their cars as much as they have right after prices started to jump
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Old 01-14-2009, 01:29 PM
 
93 posts, read 236,676 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephan_K View Post
The big index and mutual funds knew exactly what they were doing. This makes it a conspiracy in my book if that's what you want to call it ! I call it price fixing of sort. Is there a difference ?

Granted, oil has a base line price driven by supply and demand, not denying that. But it hasn't traded on or near to that base line in year as it should. It is being manipulated more so than not and I think those that don't believe this are just blind to it !

Lets not forget (as Bruno_rs mentioned) oil is an essential to our lives like water and air today... the only difference is this essential is traded on a market ! What makes anyone naive enough to think it wouldn't be manipulated more so than not or that conspiracies wouldn't form around it ? Hell, our monetary system is another one of those essentials and there is never a moment that goes by that conspiracies aren't being born, conceived and growing to take advantage of it ! Economic bubbles are just that !
hey stephan,

definitely agree and i'll take it one step further... wall street is nothing BUT speculation and it's disturbing our economy is based on what these POS's think may happen in the "future", ESPECIALLY with "commodities" we need for daily survival and/or defense. to say that speculation played a small part is comical!!

who out there is going to tell me, with a straight face, this "oil run" didn't bring the subprime scheme to a head and/or put the "last nail" in our (as well as the worlds) economy? WAYYYYY too much confidence in and/or respect for those trading on "the street" and FARRRR too little accountability, when these CROOKS and THUGS in brookes brothers suits are caught with their hands in the "money jar"! i'm certainly no fan BUT... if i were martha stewart, i'd be livid!!! she did NOTHING that isn't done 24/7 by these self serving, GREEDY, money mongers. moreover, she hurt NO ONE (but herself) and did her time. now on the other hand, the "speculators" crushed our economy, totally devastated MANY unsuspecting hard working americans and what's REALLY sick is, they're allowed to continue bilking the system with a wink and a smile.

until we as a united front and/or collectively get our heads out of the "A_ _", the disastrous economy, housing debacle and UNETHICAL SPECULATION will continue to run rampant, totally out of control and eventually push us right off the cliff!! keep heading in the same direction and we (americans) will, ALL BY OURSELVES, put this once great country 6 feet under!!! furthermore with knuckleheads like we have representing us, on ALL levels, who needs alkida to put a fork in us? what don't you get? the rest of the world is watching us, the champs... or maybe chumps now, punch ourselves out. WE NEED MOVERS AND SHAKERS... NOT SNOOZERS AND TAKERS!!!

Last edited by bruno_rs; 01-14-2009 at 02:37 PM..
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Old 01-14-2009, 04:50 PM
 
Location: NW MT
1,436 posts, read 2,983,412 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruno_rs View Post
until we as a united front and/or collectively get our heads out of the "A_ _", the disastrous economy, housing debacle and UNETHICAL SPECULATION will continue to run rampant, totally out of control and eventually push us right off the cliff!! keep heading in the same direction and we (americans) will, ALL BY OURSELVES, put this once great country 6 feet under!!! furthermore with knuckleheads like we have representing us, on ALL levels, who needs alkida to put a fork in us? what don't you get? the rest of the world is watching us, the champs... or maybe chumps now, punch ourselves out. WE NEED MOVERS AND SHAKERS... NOT SNOOZERS AND TAKERS!!!
I think the word that best describes the solution you are talking about is revolution. Especially when you consider the knuckleheads representing us and united front/collectively and cliff being mentioned in the same sentence !

I'm not sure we have the ethics as a whole to get ourselves out of this mess and get us and the world headed in the right direction. Greed and desperation will fuel even more thievery as things worsen. Desperate people do desperate things in the name of greed. I think the edge of the cliff is definitely looming somewhere ahead ! And before going over it, this country will become divided on many different critical issues in many different ways. Just a bump in the road though when you consider what is going to happen when countries become divided over the similar critical issues !
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Old 01-14-2009, 06:10 PM
 
59 posts, read 77,577 times
Reputation: 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebigr View Post
It was obvious the price of oil was not supply & demand over last summer. Once congress started investigating the price spike it seemed to start going down. Just another reason I am slowly downsizing my trucking company and spending more time with trading. After paying the high prices for diesel I realized the market is a much more profitable buisness. Plus I enjoy it and I will no longer have employees. "A one man operation"
The CFTC started its investigation back in December 2007 with a focus on "futures market manipulation." The price was about $90 back then. The price of crude didn't peak until July 11, 2008 at just under $147. I don't think the timing of the investigation really supports your theory....

Probe of Crude Oil Trading Disclosed - washingtonpost.com
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Old 01-14-2009, 07:24 PM
 
Location: Fort Myers Fl
2,305 posts, read 2,751,524 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinM782 View Post
The CFTC started its investigation back in December 2007 with a focus on "futures market manipulation." The price was about $90 back then. The price of crude didn't peak until July 11, 2008 at just under $147. I don't think the timing of the investigation really supports your theory....

Probe of Crude Oil Trading Disclosed - washingtonpost.com
I said Congress investigating not the CFTC, was when prices started to decline soon after. Do you believe it was supply and demand for the rapid rise in crude prices in 08?
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Old 01-14-2009, 09:48 PM
 
93 posts, read 236,676 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephan_K View Post
I think the word that best describes the solution you are talking about is revolution. Especially when you consider the knuckleheads representing us and united front/collectively and cliff being mentioned in the same sentence !

I'm not sure we have the ethics as a whole to get ourselves out of this mess and get us and the world headed in the right direction. Greed and desperation will fuel even more thievery as things worsen. Desperate people do desperate things in the name of greed. I think the edge of the cliff is definitely looming somewhere ahead ! And before going over it, this country will become divided on many different critical issues in many different ways. Just a bump in the road though when you consider what is going to happen when countries become divided over the similar critical issues !
hey stephan,

interesting you mention the "r" word... it's gonna take a revolt of sorts to get us out of this mess. IMO these are the most serious times, this country has faced, not only since the great depression but the american revolution as well. the depression was for the most part our government failing it's people and the desperation that followed and/or lingered while the country (as a whole) attempted to pull itself up by the boot straps. on the other hand, the revolution was about (english) greed and the (american) need/desire to live free or die... at this point we're leaning HARD towards the later.

don't intend to get off topic here however, when are people going to realize the "engine" performs better and lasts longer when ALL it's parts are looked after routinely and equally. there is need for HEALTHY competition HOWEVER when it comes to finding the (necessary) happy median, at this point, not only are we no where close but not even in the same galaxy! i believe S#!T happens for a reason and as previously stated, this overall mess (IMO) is a necessary purge to rid our society of those guilty of "gluttony" on many different levels. unfortunately, some innocent people will be brought down with these self serving, ignorant, FAT CAT wanna be's.

MONEY IS NOT THE ROOT OF ALL EVIL... UTTER GREED AND TOTAL SELFISHNESS IS!!!
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Old 01-15-2009, 07:40 AM
 
Location: Visitation between Wal-Mart & Home Depot
8,308 posts, read 35,245,674 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dd714 View Post
Ohhhkay, thank you for contributing to the discussion. You can return to the politics forum now. You can post on how Bush caused the last earthquake or something.

Now to address more reasonable posts - TheBigR and BrunoRS - no argument that speculation played a big part. But I don't agree there was any conspiracy in the speculators. There is no speculator "star chamber" or illuminati running the scenes. Speculation impacts the market without any consipiracy. Look at the housing market and certain stock market crashes (caused by short selling, etc). They go above and beyond demand trends, but still reflect perceived demand.

Most oil investors, including the speculation market, are big mutual and index funds. Oil is also used as hedge funds and future contracts. Again demand or perceived demand is at the core. If they see prices go up, a company will lock in prices for several years, thus driving prices up even more, until it eventually tops out based on changing market situations. Now, with all this said, I don't argue that the government can carefully implement some legislation to lower the impact of price swings due to speculation.

Finally, with the speculation argument: Why would this speculator "star chamber" alow the prices to finally go so low? Speculators and the oil industry are now losing billions as the forces of supply and demand finally filter down to the market.
I have to agree. Looking at it from arms length and in a very basic manner, oil prices have not behaved in a manner that could be considered consistent with a wizard on a mountain somewhere pulling strings. Oil price fluctuations are more like an emergent property of a hive. It's similar to a flock of starlings moving in unison; there is no leadership or measurable organization but there are extremely complex results from the sum of the individuals behaving in their own best interest. In this case the hive is a body of investors and purchasers making very arbitrary evaluations of end user demand and actual supply. What makes oil and gas so unpredictable is that no one has any idea how much actually exists or how much is actually needed and it isn't really even possible to know how much is being produced.

No conspiracy here. Just a mindless body of investors.

I would look for oil to rebound to the $60 range by the end of 2009. Natural gas will be on its back for a while unless there is some sort of push for its utilization as a transportation fuel.
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Old 01-15-2009, 08:52 AM
 
13,059 posts, read 19,249,802 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimboburnsy View Post
No conspiracy here. Just a mindless body of investors.

I would look for oil to rebound to the $60 range by the end of 2009. Natural gas will be on its back for a while unless there is some sort of push for its utilization as a transportation fuel.
Yes of course. And the proof is in these very own forums. In May and June how many posts did you see that said "OMG oil will be $200 a barrel in a month/$10 a gallon of gas is a few months away". Investors think the same thing, buy up oil, and prices go up beyond actual demand. No conspiracy, unless some of the posters here are in on it.
Then the market falls out a couple months later, and you get the opposite - "OMG the fall of western civilization is near and oil will be worthless". Investors think the same, and react.
And then the final proof - many oil speculators lost some serious money in the market last year, and the oil industry is going to be reporting billion dollar losses when their financial reports come out.
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Old 01-15-2009, 09:03 AM
 
2,214 posts, read 1,799,934 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephan_K View Post
He who thinks oil prices are determined by supply and demand is a fool !

Did Speculation Fuel Oil Price Swings?, 60 Minutes: Speculation Affected Oil Price Swings More Than Supply And Demand - CBS News

Housing bubble... Energy bubble... where's the next bubble people ?
Yes and No.

Supply and demand has something to do with it. There are a lot of people, for instance, that don't understand the emerging market demand for crude oil in China and India. And this past summer/fall, when the American stock market floundered, it hit their economies hard. Their demand fell, and so too did global crude oil prices.

On the other hand, speculators and commodities brokers are using minor things for an excuse to apply a good old fashioned screw job to the American public.
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