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He's 100% accurate in terms of the message he needs to promote his gold/oil/Euro/yen interests. He's made a great case in the past in terms of the bigger picture about what's wrong with the U.S. economy (too much debt and consumption relative to savings and production).
As much as I like Schiff's general analysis, I fail to find him 100% convincing for the simple reasons that he doesn't take into account the inherent value underlying the U.S. economy or the ability of other governments and indeed the likelihood that other governments will pursue the same inflationary policies that the U.S. does. He also doesn't deal with the fact that an inflated dollar could prove one of the least painful (still painful, of course!) ways to deal with our debt problem in this country.
Schiff is a smart man and he's worth listening to, but what he says needs to be taken with a grain of salt given the products his company, EuroPac, tends to promote (i.e., the very products that benefit enormously from a very weak dollar).
I read about this same thing on another financial forum (financial sense) about how everything went down and what it could mean if it continues.
Schiff is right..when one thing goes down, another usually goes up. This same wierdness happened when Lehman and Bear Sterns were having problems..the fundamentals were going all over the place.
Nothing to disagree with. Like most folks that make their living as an economists he "sees 'what is there' well, what 'was there' very well, but 'what might be' not any better than others".
He offers no real "better solutions" but this is of course not his purpose, it is to get people to "come back for more, buy a book, sign on with my investment firm, , help make my name more well known" (and maybe if some politicians listen, to get them to rethink their foolish actions) ...
Take for instance the GMAC thing, while I personally AGREE COMPLETELY that this is well beyond the legal purpose of a limited government such that United States Constitution provides for, I also can see how disruptive it would be to the UAW and other labor unions that strongly supported the election the Democrats to the White House. It does not take much imagination to see how even the most orderly and well orchestrated bankruptcy of GM might lead to massive turmoil in the broader market...
If Prof. Schiff shares with us his preferred makers of tent fabric, carbon steel hoe, and kerosene lantern, and tells us which Soup Line he'll be offering investment advice at I MIGHT be more scared. As it is, his office furniture does not seem to be scheduled to be cut up for firewood and his cable modem seems to be working well so I am not too worried that my lifestyle is going to collapse...
I was thinking the same when I was staring at people, just barely above water and incomes half of mine, who were buying houses bigger then anything I could with a good down payment and fixed rate mortgage...it was pretty easy to see if you weren't insanely enthusiastic. Time will tell he can predict farther then the big in your face insanity at the start. Considering many predicted the same doom and gloom in the past bubbles/bursts since the dutch tulip bubble in 1624 and have been dead wrong...I think I'll follow my own evaluation.
Nothing to disagree with. Like most folks that make their living as an economists he "sees 'what is there' well, what 'was there' very well, but 'what might be' not any better than others".
He is not an economist, he is a fund manager.
Schiff has been wrong on just about every detail, the only thing he got right was that there was going to be a recession. But, that was obvious to anybody that was not drinking massive amounts of kool-aid.
In terms of investing you would've done much better doing the exact opposite of what he has been suggesting for the last 2-3 years.
2007 article..Schiff talks about housing bubble and US economy.
He was spot on then when everyone else said it was "localized".
Mar 15, 2007 From the Sub-Prime to the Ridiculous Peter Schiff 321gold . . . Inc (http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff031507.html - broken link)
snippet from 2007 article:
"[SIZE=-1]However, instead of a mild recession, this collapse will be followed by the most severe recession since the Great Depression."[/SIZE]
I will say I listened to both Roubini and Schiff and got out of the market in 2007.
My 401K was preserved, unlike many who listened to the big heads talking about "buy low, and hold".
So, user_id, think what you want about Schiff.
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