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Old 02-20-2009, 02:29 PM
 
Location: Chino, CA
1,458 posts, read 3,059,212 times
Reputation: 555

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Well, we all know that we're in a recession for over 14 months now... so, what are some signs that would help us analyze when we're heading into "recovery" mode or if things are going to get worst?

Here are some I think are good to look at:

Household Debt:
Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios
Which has fell quite a bit since the peak... but has been pretty stagnant recently

Household Savings:
Which has increased recently in spite of no real stimulus yet.

BEA : Personal Saving Rate

Money Supply which has increased allowing for more available capital
FRB: H.6 Release--Money Stock and Debt Measures--February 19, 2009

Leading Indicators which has very slightly improved
Bloomberg.com: Economy

Unemployment, and unemployment claims which has increased
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LNS14000000_215357_1235161278549.gif (broken link)
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Investor Confidence which has improved a little which would help capital expenditures:
http://www.statestreet.com/industry_insights/investor_confidence_index/ici_lg.jpg (broken link)

And Consumer Confidence:
Consumer Confidence Index - The Conference Board

Credit Spread has fallen:
Bloomberg.com: Investment Tools

Anything else we should be looking at?

-chuck22b
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Old 02-20-2009, 03:29 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 76,840,230 times
Reputation: 27652
I think watching the BDI is a good indicator. This indicator is free from any supposed government manipulation. It's straight numbers of shipped goods and can indirectly measure global supply and demand. I think it's more future leaning as it's mostly for commodities..raw goods.

While it should not be the only one followed..it's another number to put on the table to watch IMHO.

Here's a link that explains what it is and what it measures:
Baltic Dry Index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There are more links at the bottom of that wiki
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Old 02-20-2009, 03:45 PM
 
48,508 posts, read 88,655,852 times
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The real question is where is the beef. if you look at the markets their is no bump from anyhting that has been annunced. All the investnants have gone to safe things like treasuries;bonds and g9old. Now treasuries and bnds are starting to drop. Gold is on the rise. The administraion has no confidence vote were it counts and that is why savings has increased.Its liike the administrauion rush a stimulus saying it need to be here now no matter what the compromises then they delay their own treasury programs announcing nothing but goals.That fdrom a source that does not ahve top have a votye of 400+ people. What I think we got was a stimulus of 30% stimulus and 70% politcal payback to special interest.Now we have a homeowners bailout( not a loan like the banks and big three got0 that has no deails of who gets the moeny;where is the openness in that.
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Old 02-20-2009, 05:21 PM
 
19,346 posts, read 16,987,830 times
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For the most part we have a debt based real estate currency. This was reinforced by mortgage deductions, Fannie, Freddie and capital gains exemptions and population growth over many years. Unless something unusual is done nothing in the foreseeable future will reverse this. We are looking at Japanese style decades...unless the system is changes drastically.
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Old 02-20-2009, 06:05 PM
 
16,092 posts, read 37,978,464 times
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I agree with my fellow Texan. The bailout stuff is so labyrinthine that nobody knows where the billions are going but you can be sure it's into someone's pocket.
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Old 02-20-2009, 06:31 PM
 
12,869 posts, read 13,706,255 times
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you would also need to look at loan failures and credit card default rates if you wanted to get an idea of the health of our economy, and both are currently worsening.
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Old 02-21-2009, 10:13 PM
 
3,853 posts, read 12,052,115 times
Reputation: 2522
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
I think watching the BDI is a good indicator. This indicator is free from any supposed government manipulation. It's straight numbers of shipped goods and can indirectly measure global supply and demand. I think it's more future leaning as it's mostly for commodities..raw goods.

While it should not be the only one followed..it's another number to put on the table to watch IMHO.

Here's a link that explains what it is and what it measures:
Baltic Dry Index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There are more links at the bottom of that wiki
Very funny you point that out, read (from the wikipedia entry)

Quote:
On 20 May 2008 the index reached its record high level since its introduction in 1985, reaching 11,793 points. Half a year later, on 5 December 2008, the index had dropped by 94%, to 663 points, the lowest since 1986.[10], though by 4 February 2009 it had recovered a little lost ground, back to 1,316.[11] These low rates move dangerously close to the combined operating costs of vessels, fuel, and crews.[12][13]
By the end of 2008, shipping times had been already increased by reduced speeds to save fuel consumption, but lack of credit meant the reduction of letters of credit, historically required to load cargoes for departure at ports. Debt load of future ship construction was also a problem for shipping companies, with several major bankruptcies and implications for shipyards.[14][15] This, combined with the collapsing price of raw commodities created a perfect storm for the world's marine commerce.
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Old 02-22-2009, 10:37 AM
 
Location: Houston, TX
17,031 posts, read 28,232,044 times
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On a positive note, Dow Chemical restarted one of their chemical plants south of Houston. NOt full rates, but they started to bring workers back. Thats the sign Im looking for...were not there yet but a sign of production demand is good.
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Old 02-22-2009, 10:46 AM
 
Location: Chino, CA
1,458 posts, read 3,059,212 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oildog View Post
On a positive note, Dow Chemical restarted one of their chemical plants south of Houston. NOt full rates, but they started to bring workers back. Thats the sign Im looking for...were not there yet but a sign of production demand is good.
Thanks Oildog,
that IS good news.
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