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I don't understand how Citi and GM can go from the verge of nationalization and bankruptcy to solvent and profitable in 7 days..that one still boggles my mind.
Maybe they were never in the negative to begin with but just wanted the bailout? Anything is possible these days!
Okay doom and gloomers, what a past couple of days we just had on the market. It feels good to see the number in the green. Dare I call we bottomed on Monday?
Ah, what the heck, I will. There are a ton of bad things right now, but having been all over the world, we really have some smart minds and talent in this country.
Market at 10K by Summer
if japan is anything to go by we'll bottom at 2000. here the nikkei is seen at it's high of just under 40000. that's forty thousand in 1990. todays price: 7569!
I am not sure why there is a rally on the DOW so far but economic times are still dismal at best... I don't have such a positive outlook...I remember a few people said 10k last year and at the beginning of this year... haven't materialize but it doesn't make you wrong or right.. indicators in the economy however suggests you are wrong...
i'll tell you why, it's called other peoples money! if those traders who gamble with your pension fund shared your losses the way they share your gains, they'd be a lot more careful about calling bottoms and going long!
an attitude like that will make the recession deeper. the only reason the dow is up is because people are taking advantage of the low share prices and are starting to buy. what this will do is cause share prices to rise (because the dow is up) which will turn more people away from buying stocks, thus causing the stock buyers to lose money because they have no one to sell to (prices too high) which means they have to hold on to the shares because no one is buying stocks because they drove the prices up. it is confusing, i know. but, if you dont listen to the tv then DONT listen to them when they tell you to buy. you cant pick and choose what to do.
First, no recession is the same as the last and history does not repeat itself. This depression will not be a rerun of the Great Depression.
Second, there is a huge amount of cash out there waiting for a place to invest. Any good news brings cash into the market. I still think it is a Bear market but this will limit the length of the Bear market IMHO.
Third, there are a lot oif good companies whose share price do not reflect a fundamentally strong business or balance sheet.
Finally, there are definitely sound companies who have taken government money. American Express is a good example of this. They are now having second thoughts since they discovered the government will cap executive pay.
if japan is anything to go by we'll bottom at 2000. here the nikkei is seen at it's high of just under 40000. that's forty thousand in 1990. todays price: 7569!
Hi 58robbo,
One reason is because Japanese will not go into debt which would increase the money supply. This has maintained depression like conditions. Mean while the low interest rate still picks their pocket to reduce the buying power of the Yen due to the currency carry trade. The only new money coming into the system was from government spending which is why the GDP to debt ratio is so high at 180% GDP. However most of this is Japanese held debt. All they needed to do was lower taxes if they cared about the average Japanese.
Yet even as it is they are better off. Since more of there money is represented in government created debt it is without interest to borrowers and more of their currency circulates interest free( assuming the central banks restores profits to the treasury).
First, no recession is the same as the last and history does not repeat itself. This depression will not be a rerun of the Great Depression.
Second, there is a huge amount of cash out there waiting for a place to invest. Any good news brings cash into the market. I still think it is a Bear market but this will limit the length of the Bear market IMHO.
Third, there are a lot oif good companies whose share price do not reflect a fundamentally strong business or balance sheet.
Finally, there are definitely sound companies who have taken government money. American Express is a good example of this. They are now having second thoughts since they discovered the government will cap executive pay.
i never said every recession is the same., what im saying is that every recession has bear market rallies (llike we are having now).
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