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Old 04-09-2009, 06:00 PM
 
Location: South FL
5,528 posts, read 7,470,712 times
Reputation: 3582

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WASHINGTON - At last, after a nerve-racking six-month descent, the economy appears to be leveling off.

But don't assume the bumps are over.

Stock investors, shoppers and home buyers are less jittery. Once-frozen credit markets are slowly thawing. And economic indicators that had been going from bad to worse are showing signs of stabilizing — though still at distressed levels.

Economy’s plunge seems to be leveling off - Stocks & economy- msnbc.com
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Old 04-09-2009, 06:13 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,052 posts, read 84,214,150 times
Reputation: 27718
I'm still a bit pessimistic. Mainly because they just changed accounting rules which allow the banks to be a bit creative on their valuations and also allow them to remove some liabilities from their income statements. Also today's unemployement numbers were reported to come in under the estimates but those estimates were revised up from the original estimate. If they stuck to the original estimate then those unemployment numbers would have come in higher than estimates.

While I'd like to believe the tide is turning..too many rules and estimates are changing in favor of happy news..not realistic news IMHO. I'd wait for another 6 months of continued improvement before agreeing to any articles stating good signs.

And that $55 trillion in derivatives are still outstanding so this is still over our heads.
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Old 04-09-2009, 06:59 PM
 
48,505 posts, read 96,582,961 times
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I'm hopewful and the stimulus has even done anything.Seems it may turn around wtihotu much but the bank loans which will be payed back. The stimulus maybe waqsted money considering the deficit it will create.
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Old 04-09-2009, 09:19 PM
 
20,591 posts, read 19,251,573 times
Reputation: 8199
Quote:
Originally Posted by JackTheRipper View Post
WASHINGTON - At last, after a nerve-racking six-month descent, the economy appears to be leveling off.

But don't assume the bumps are over.

Stock investors, shoppers and home buyers are less jittery. Once-frozen credit markets are slowly thawing. And economic indicators that had been going from bad to worse are showing signs of stabilizing — though still at distressed levels.

Economy̢۪s plunge seems to be leveling off - Stocks & economy- msnbc.com
Greetings JackTheRipper,

That is because the Fed finally replaced the disappearing bank credit with Federal Reserve credit as they began to buy treasuries, 300 billion worth, which looks to be about 2/3 years worth of consumer credit including back filling 2007. It also lowed long term mortgage rates by buying up 750 billion in mortgages.

I saw deflation back in October until I saw the leveling off that I predicted we will see now as of March if the trend of Federal reserve purchases continues.

//www.city-data.com/forum/busin...will-rise.html


We use bank credit or consumer debt as money thus when credit tightens the money supply shrinks. We essentially demonetized low quality credit. We finally replaced these circulating dollars with Federal Reserve cash. However at the rate we are going we may see more of this since consumer credit is disappearing from the money supply. Debt is money and money is debt and there is less and less consumer debt circulating as money. It shows a deterioration back to December/November numbers in February. Its now the revolving credit based industries taking it on the chin which means the goods and services economy is being impacted instead of durable assets.
Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 3-1/2 percent in February 2009. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 9-3/4 percent, and nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1/4 percent.
FRB: G.19 Release--Consumer Credit--April 7, 2009


Its normally a 100 billion a year of increased consumer debt and we are back to 2007 of about
150 billion short of usual.
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Old 04-09-2009, 10:03 PM
 
706 posts, read 3,756,356 times
Reputation: 355
I wouldn't invest in anybody's stock right now.

I may never again.

I'm rethinking homeownership.

This is my first recession (since I've been a bill-paying adult).

I've been traumatized.

*s*
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Old 04-09-2009, 11:55 PM
 
Location: rain city
2,957 posts, read 12,691,077 times
Reputation: 4973
Leveling off?

Don't I remember reading a few days ago that over 600,000 jobs were lost in March?

Working Thoughts: March 2009 Jobs Report and Wages (http://workingthoughts.com/2009/04/03/march-2009-jobs-report-and-wages.aspx - broken link)
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Old 04-10-2009, 12:08 AM
 
13,811 posts, read 27,342,092 times
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What I personally think is starting to happen is folks that are relatively secure in their jobs right now are starting to spend money again. I noticed lots of new things in my neighborhood, from my own purchase of an expensive new air compressor, to tool boxes (the $1000 kind), toys for kids, toys for adults, even new cars. I think the tax rebates coming back also are helping. The $7500/$8000 home buyer tax credit is also moving homes in my neighborhood. Personally I went 100% into stocks 1-2 weeks ago when I started noticing more people buying things (up around 7% since), more people on airplanes, etc. I think the economy is starting to level off and possibly showing signs of a slight recovery.
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Old 04-10-2009, 10:01 AM
 
20,591 posts, read 19,251,573 times
Reputation: 8199
Quote:
Originally Posted by azoria View Post
Leveling off?

Don't I remember reading a few days ago that over 600,000 jobs were lost in March?

Working Thoughts: March 2009 Jobs Report and Wages (http://workingthoughts.com/2009/04/03/march-2009-jobs-report-and-wages.aspx - broken link)

Hi azoria,

Asset deflation has leveled off. The 1/4 point increase verse the decrease is more evidence of that. The problem is if revolving credit keeps dropping off it will rotate into non revolving credit again. If the capital produced by fixed capital decreases then the assets will command even less credit and on the spiral goes.

Last edited by gwynedd1; 04-10-2009 at 11:14 AM..
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Old 04-10-2009, 10:25 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
1,035 posts, read 1,393,329 times
Reputation: 1314
Until the job losses stop I wouldn't say it's leveling off
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Old 04-10-2009, 11:36 AM
 
111 posts, read 257,911 times
Reputation: 66
Unemployment level is only one aspect of economic health and is generally the last indicator to move up.
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