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Old 11-21-2010, 01:03 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,460 posts, read 20,006,271 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
your are correct when you say it is what it is.. its just their way of measuring things and bares almost no resemblance to real life over time . its like looking in those circus mirrors.
And yet, you've yet to provide anything that demonstrates it. Your personal anecdotes don't mean anything, they don't refute the validity of CPI.
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Old 11-21-2010, 01:18 PM
 
105,888 posts, read 107,860,524 times
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well take a poll, who has seen their expenses stay even close to the gov't figures over the last decade....easy enough to see if the wool was pulled over our eyes,. thats all the evidence you need.
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Old 11-21-2010, 01:30 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,460 posts, read 20,006,271 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
well take a poll, who has seen their expenses stay even close to the gov't figures over the last decade....easy enough to see if the wool was pulled over our eyes,. thats all the evidence you need.
If you think this, then you don't understand mathematics (and psychology) well. Firstly, any poll would have to be from an appropriate random sample, not simply putting a poll on some forum. Secondly, the poll would be ineffective regardless of the sample, people simply don't posses the sorts of memory that can reliably track costs over 10 years. This is why you track costs with indexes which monthly or quarterly survey the cost of items, that is precisely what the CPI does. Now, if the CPI doesn't provide reliable numbers, then you can develop another index. If indeed the CPI numbers were unreliable, you'd see many of these developed by private organizations that noticeably conflicted, but you don't see this at all.

So, what you guys believe is that you're some extra-special group of people that realizes that the CPI numbers are junk and everyone else, banks, corporations, world governments, etc just don't realize it.

The only thing that is going up here is the use of tin-foil.
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Old 11-21-2010, 01:43 PM
 
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oooh they know those numbers dont ring true but its all they got. the truth is if they would have stopped screwing with it and massaging the index at this point it may actually reflected what most americans felt this last decade.

i remember reading an article about the 2 doctors who were experimenting with the 220 less your age theory for max heart rate when you work out. well they said an entire industry latched on to those numbers before it was ever confirmed or even finalized as true . they started selling heart rate monitors like crazy based on this, folks were even being told by doctors they may have heart issues based on a heart rate that was to high for their age when working out .these two doctors said they were horrified to see the world hang their hat on numbers that they themselves were convinced were not tested enough and refined enough .

so yes the indexes rule the world right or wrong. those are the numbers everything lives and dies by. doesnt make them anymore accurate accurate though .it certainly doesnt mean that if they stopped revising them to reflect lower that they couldnt work,they just didnt work.

Last edited by mathjak107; 11-21-2010 at 02:02 PM..
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Old 11-21-2010, 02:27 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,460 posts, read 20,006,271 times
Reputation: 4365
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
oooh they know those numbers dont ring true but its all they got. the truth is if they would have stopped screwing with it and massaging the index at this point it may actually reflected what most americans felt this last decade.
Sorry, but there are many organizations in this country that maintain indexes, some of which, are more complicated than CPI. If the CPI was unreliable, you'd find many private organizations develop their own as its a very important index. Private companies don't have to "live and die" by the CPI, for them its just an index of consumer prices, private companies are also the ones that are most aware of price changes.

Ironically, the the index was changed in response to what others were doing outside of the government, hence the claim that the changes were made to manipulate the index is not even historically founded.

But look, I get it, some people like to wear tin-foil hats and refuse to submit matters to a logical inquiry.
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Old 11-21-2010, 05:10 PM
 
Location: Maryland
1,534 posts, read 4,250,667 times
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user_id - I suggest you are quite seriously missing the point (at least that which Mathjak and I have made) --- that being that the CPI isn't reflective of an individual's personal cost experience. I, speaking for myself only, don't dispute the accuracy of the CPI --- it is what it is. It is just is not terribly relevant in the real world, except for macro economic analysis and the use thereof in setting SS/pension/etc. adjustments. Its precision relative to individual cost experience is marginal, at best.

I suggest that it is of far greater importance for individuals to focus on their personal cost matrix than any CPI data. I believe my earlier post using my personal data adequately defines those differentials quite well.

As to your comment:

"So, what you guys believe is that you're some extra-special group of people that realizes that the CPI numbers are junk and everyone else, banks, corporations, world governments, etc just don't realize it. The only thing that is going up here is the use of tin-foil."

I politely suggest you reconsider your competencies in having an intelligent discourse on this subject. I spent the major part of my career doing intensive cost analysis/projections for billion+++ dollar Federal projects. I am highly conversant with the CPI data, have used it extensively over many years in my professional career and --- I don't wear tin foil hats and according to my performance evaluations --- was never "extra special", just outstandingly competent at my job.

PS - would you mind disclosing your educational/professional background? It might shed some light on your posts.

Mine: BS - Accounting, plus a bunch of graduate courses in financial and statistical analysis from major universities, add in uncounted in-house federal training on specific subjects, 35 years Federal service, w/20+ years in cost/benefit analysis and related financial/budget areas. It would be useful for other CD folks to know what experience/educational background you are speaking from, if you wouldn't mind.

Last edited by Pilgrim21784; 11-21-2010 at 06:02 PM..
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Old 11-21-2010, 07:43 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,460 posts, read 20,006,271 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilgrim21784 View Post
user_id - I suggest you are quite seriously missing the point (at least that which Mathjak and I have made) --- that being that the CPI isn't reflective of an individual's personal cost experience.
Oh, gee, next you're going to tell me that the sky is blue. I have never suggested that the CPI represents an "individual's personal cost experience", it should go without saying that an aggregate index like CPI does not represent a particular individuals "cost experience". I'm not sure why you are coming into the "debate" with this, when the "debate" is about whether or not the government manipulates CPI in order to try to cover up the "actual" inflation rate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilgrim21784 View Post
I politely suggest you reconsider your competencies in having an intelligent discourse on this subject
I'd politely suggest that you consider what is actually discussed, you've done nothing but assert the obvious, something I never suggested otherwise. Again, the issue is whether the government manipulates CPI, or more generally, whether the CPI provides a good (macroeconomic) picture about consumer prices.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilgrim21784 View Post
PS - would you mind disclosing your educational/professional background? It might shed some light on your posts.
I don't play this game, my background, as well as yours, is irrelevant. I only discuss these things when they are relevant.
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Old 11-21-2010, 08:00 PM
 
Location: Maryland
1,534 posts, read 4,250,667 times
Reputation: 2326
"I don't play this game, my background, as well as yours, is irrelevant. I only discuss these things when they are relevant."

I must disagree, one's background is quite relevant to the discussion. Mine is there for anyone's consideration. Reasonable folks might want to know what experience and background one brings to the discussion. Absent your disclosure, what can we assume of your credence other than chattering?
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Old 11-21-2010, 08:18 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,460 posts, read 20,006,271 times
Reputation: 4365
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilgrim21784 View Post
I must disagree, one's background is quite relevant to the discussion. Mine is there for anyone's consideration. Reasonable folks might want to know what experience and background one brings to the discussion. Absent your disclosure, what can we assume of your credence other than chattering?
One's background is not relevant, whether or not the assertions I'm making are true or not have nothing to do with my background, but rather the underlying facts and logic. So you are free to discuss your background all you wish, I'll stick with logic.
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Old 11-22-2010, 02:08 AM
 
105,888 posts, read 107,860,524 times
Reputation: 79490
there is no question in my mind that if they didnt make all these so called "adjustments" to how things are figured that the index would be indicating much higher then it is. the fact is if peoples incomes werent tied to these indexes it would all be a moot point,who cares it would just be a number.

the proof is in the pudding that its way off of reality because im sure there will be very few who say over the last decade those cpi results are close to what reality was. if its not supposed to be a cost of living indicater but only a measure of price change then dont tie our cost of living to it or its derivatives.
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