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Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
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For fun.
What do you think 2010 American economy will look like?
Please break down your analysis by quarters.
And please include your projections on:
1. GDP
2. unemployment rates
3. interest rates.
4. commodities prices (can be specific to a particular commodity or the over all market.)
5. national debt levels
6. Trade deficit/surplus levels
8 Dollar strength (compared to whatever other currency you decide on.)
Of course you may add whatever other pertinent information that you feel relevant as well.
What do you think 2010 American economy will look like?
Please break down your analysis by quarters.
And please include your projections on:
1. GDP
2. unemployment rates
3. interest rates.
4. commodities prices (can be specific to a particular commodity or the over all market.)
5. national debt levels
6. Trade deficit/surplus levels
8 Dollar strength (compared to whatever other currency you decide on.)
Of course you may add whatever other pertinent information that you feel relevant as well.
Wouldn't most of this depend on whether or not the govt. reverses it's current printing/spending spree?
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
4,428 posts, read 6,509,244 times
Reputation: 1721
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimj
Wouldn't most of this depend on whether or not the govt. reverses it's current printing/spending spree?
Well include that thought process into you predictions. Another words include what you feel that the government is going to do that will effect all the things I mentioned in the beginning post. Remember this post is for fun. So there is no penalty for mis-guessing (emphasis on guessing) where the market will go and what actions/events may effect markets.
Last edited by baystater; 06-11-2009 at 07:50 AM..
I predict 2010 will be the same suckage as 2009. Millions of Americans will still be under and unemployed. Foreclosures will continue. The government will continue to sink billions of taxpayer dollars into overseas wars and to prop up dying industries and corrupt financial corporations.
America lacks visionary leadership and the will to make real earth shaking changes. The oligarchs in power will continue to preach the status quo while robbing the country blind.
There will be further reductions of investment in education. Nothing will be done about the health care fiasco. The media will report a rebound in jobs and economy even while most Americans will be looking forward to a lowered standard of living and opportunity for the near, and probably more distant future.
I predict 2010 will be the same suckage as 2009. Millions of Americans will still be under and unemployed. Foreclosures will continue. The government will continue to sink billions of taxpayer dollars into overseas wars and to prop up dying industries and corrupt financial corporations.
America lacks visionary leadership and the will to make real earth shaking changes. The oligarchs in power will continue to preach the status quo while robbing the country blind.
There will be further reductions of investment in education. Nothing will be done about the health care fiasco. The media will report a rebound in jobs and economy even while most Americans will be looking forward to a lowered standard of living and opportunity for the near, and probably more distant future.
I see a recession even worse than the one we are in. How can things get better when we are seeing high unemployment rates, job outsourcing, irresponsible government spending and inflation? All I see is people’s wishes and hopes the market will inflate again so they can make a quick buck. Dude we are on the same page.
1. GDP
2. unemployment rates
3. interest rates.
4. commodities prices (can be specific to a particular commodity or the over all market.)
5. national debt levels
6. Trade deficit/surplus levels
8 Dollar strength (compared to whatever other currency you decide on.)
1. Up, with stable growth (1-2%/year instead of 5-6%)
2. Higher than this decade (9 -11% average), but stabilized. Then it will drop due to more folks leaving the market or because companies finally make enough gain to hire some extra workers.
3. 1-2%, if (when) inflation kicks in, to stave off increasing prices. Possibly higher (think when Volcker took over the Fed in the early 80s). Raising rates could cause higher future unemployment.
4. Crude will be higher, but stable. Other commoditites will have price growth due to inflation. Paychecks will rise in some fields, be stable in others. Depends on why number 2 decreases.
5. Higher... that's just guaranteed by now.
6. Trade deficit, but lower as a %age of GDP. The dollar will be worth less against the Asian currencies, causing less importation due to higher prices of goods in dollars. Even with Chinese currency manipulation.
8. Lower dollar.
Economics/finance isn't a pure science, so it's hard to "engineer" a system or predict how a system will react within this field (it's those damn humans). I could be wrong. There could be utter collapse, or everyone could have health care and sunshine dust that causes your every desire to be fulfilled.
I predict 2010 will be the same suckage as 2009. Millions of Americans will still be under and unemployed. Foreclosures will continue. The government will continue to sink billions of taxpayer dollars into overseas wars and to prop up dying industries and corrupt financial corporations.
America lacks visionary leadership and the will to make real earth shaking changes. The oligarchs in power will continue to preach the status quo while robbing the country blind.
There will be further reductions of investment in education. Nothing will be done about the health care fiasco. The media will report a rebound in jobs and economy even while most Americans will be looking forward to a lowered standard of living and opportunity for the near, and probably more distant future.
This is probably a fair summary, and I share it.
If we continue to enjoy supplies of food, basic utilities, and a water-proof roofs over our heads, we will be alright. The rest is superfluous.
I suppose that means 0%-1% growth for perhaps a decade, around 8%-10% unemployment rate (underemployment is widespread but hard to measure), interest rates will probably be kept artificially low, but should be around 6% short-term and 8%-10% long-term (I expect the real rate of inflation at that level, despite the official statistics), it may be possible to keep the national debt below 100% of GDP and the yearly deficit around 3%, the trade deficit may be contained at current levels, perhaps even improve slightly, the dollar will fluctuate because other countries have problems too.
I expect no meaningful health care reform, the terms of the current debate are absolutely meaningless.
Among the ruling classes there is no leadership in sight that could prevent the US from sliding into mediocre status on the stage of world history, it happens to everybody.
1. Stabilized, little growth.
2. Raising, possibly stabilizing at the end of the year.
3. Not much higher than they are today.
4. Stable and some decline.
5-6. The deficit will improve.
8. Not any weaker than has been seen in the last 2 years.
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