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Old 08-27-2009, 06:38 AM
 
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The smart thing to do was to withdraw everything to cash when stock was at 14k and start buying again last March... you would of enjoyed incredible profits but then we aren't psychics either... right now, I am down about 10% but only thanks to investing in other markets which help it regain some money... HOWEVER the stocks that dropped like a rock are still way, WAY down, if they recover then I would make a nice profit... I am not selling anything for a loss, NEVER... the one mistake I made was investing in Freddie Mac when it was $8.... its about $2 now... hopefully it will be worth more when I retire (and it will) in 30 years...
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Old 08-28-2009, 09:55 AM
 
Location: City of the Angels
2,222 posts, read 1,922,145 times
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These discussions exemplify why you should have a safe haven like a money market fund set up in your account so that you can jump out of a mutual fund when the market turns against you. You can then park your money until the cycle turns back up and then jump back in. In this day and age of computer trading, it is so easy to switch funds and keep your equity.
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Old 09-02-2009, 01:01 PM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,668,368 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id View Post
Its a good thing you don't own stocks, as you seem to think you have the ability to predict their movements.

There is no particular reason why stocks would crash in October~Christmas, most investors are aware that this Christmas season is likely to be pretty bad.

I think some people keep expecting depression like behavior in the stock market, but there was not a large bubble in stocks before the recession like there was during the depression.


So an S&P 500 P/E ratio of (100+/1 actual), 16+/1 "normalized" does not worry you?
The fact that the stock market and the BSD index are going in opposite directions is nothing to worry about?
That insiders are selling at 17 times normal should be ignored?
That Prime mortgages reaching resets, Commercial RE approaching 4% delinquency, and credit card defaults increasing are all converging to begin another round of bank solvency problems is of little concern?
Oh and there is that little matter of the FED needing at some point to begin an exit plan from the artificially low interest rates and turbo printing presses.
I feel much better now that I know there is nothing to worry about.
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Old 09-02-2009, 01:30 PM
 
69,360 posts, read 58,832,599 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by subsound View Post
My unrealized losses from last year are well gone, not that there were much to begin with.
I'm in the same boat. Many assume that because the DJIA and the S&P 500 is down, that everything is down.. Not the case, there are some of us doing fantastic this year
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Old 09-02-2009, 03:28 PM
 
975 posts, read 1,635,650 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
I'm in the same boat. Many assume that because the DJIA and the S&P 500 is down, that everything is down.. Not the case, there are some of us doing fantastic this year
The DJIA and S&P are up this year.
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Old 09-02-2009, 04:01 PM
 
69,360 posts, read 58,832,599 times
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Originally Posted by Traderx View Post
The DJIA and S&P are up this year.
Yes, but we're talking about last years losses... And compared to the high, I'm not sure the current price is something we should be partying over..
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Old 09-02-2009, 06:38 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,470 posts, read 18,295,071 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
So an S&P 500 P/E ratio of (100+/1 actual), 16+/1 "normalized" does not worry you?
The fact that the stock market and the BSD index are going in opposite directions is nothing to worry about?
That insiders are selling at 17 times normal should be ignored?
Read what I said, I never claimed stocks are a good value right now. Rather I stated that there is no good reason why stocks would collapse between October and December. A The P/E ratio, etc are all known right now why would this cause a collapse in a couple of months vs right now?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
That Prime mortgages reaching resets, Commercial RE approaching 4% delinquency, and credit card defaults increasing are all converging to begin another round of bank solvency problems is of little concern?
Prime mortgages reaching resets? Huh? I assume you are talking about prime ARM mortgages? If so the rates on most of these have reset. Perhaps you are referring to Option ARMs recasting into fulling amortizing loans. In which case, you should realize that many of these people have already defaulted. There is not going to be a big flood of these defaults in the future.

Commercial RE is a much different issue than the real estate RE and is unlikely to cause the same sorts of problems. Most of the RE loans going bad are from relatively small banks (they could not compete well in the mortgage market so they did commercial RE instead) that are rather easily to unwind. At worst the FDIC is going to need money from the treasury to handle these bank failures. But besides the money, there is nothing particularly problematic about it from a systemic point of view.
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Old 09-02-2009, 06:44 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,470 posts, read 18,295,071 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
Yes, but we're talking about last years losses... And compared to the high, I'm not sure the current price is something we should be partying over..
But who cares how they compare to the high? How do they compare to march?

Sorta funny that while the doom and gloom crowd was whining and complain and investing in junk, they missed a sizable rally in the equity markets. Not that I took advantage of it, but I don't trade.
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Old 09-02-2009, 06:50 PM
 
69,360 posts, read 58,832,599 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id View Post
Commercial RE is a much different issue than the real estate RE and is unlikely to cause the same sorts of problems. Most of the RE loans going bad are from relatively small banks (they could not compete well in the mortgage market so they did commercial RE instead) that are rather easily to unwind. At worst the FDIC is going to need money from the treasury to handle these bank failures. But besides the money, there is nothing particularly problematic about it from a systemic point of view.
Actually that is partially incorrect..

First the correct part: Commercial RE will not cause the same sort of problems.

The incorrect part: Commercial RE actually is a much bigger problem then residential ones because most commercial properties are financed with 5-7 loans which then get refinanced. 2009-2010 has a very large percentage of commercial loans up for balloon payments, and with property values sinking, the only alternative an investor has is to convince the bank to renew their loan. Not a chance they will be able to find another bank to finance a new loan.

Only reason I know this, I'm buying a very large number of commercial properties at huge discounts because I have the ability to pay cash at the moment..

This will not only affect small banks, but huge banks hold huge liabilities to these commercial developers. Some of the mall owners nation wide have already filed bankruptcy for hundreds, if not billions of dollars. These liabilities are at larger banks because small ones cant afford to write these loans..
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Old 09-02-2009, 06:56 PM
 
69,360 posts, read 58,832,599 times
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Originally Posted by user_id View Post
But who cares how they compare to the high? How do they compare to march?

Sorta funny that while the doom and gloom crowd was whining and complain and investing in junk, they missed a sizable rally in the equity markets. Not that I took advantage of it, but I don't trade.
It doesnt matter how they compared to March, or last year, what matters is, what companies make good economic investments now, or what ones are you willing to invest in knowing that they will turn around and offer an acceptable rate of return for the time period one is looking to hold?

stock quotes are usually an accurate indicator of present value, today, not tomorrow, not yesterday. In addition, just because the DJIA is going down, this does not mean that people are losing money. Sure, some are, but just because the stock symbols that make up the DJIA is dropping, this doesnt mean that they all are. Lets not even bring up the fact that many know how to hedge their losses, and actually profit when stocks go up or down.. Example: Recently I had 10,000 shares of AIG which I bought for $20.50.. I was holding this position as the stock fell to $9, then recovered to $14.. By time it hit $14, I had my cost per share down to $14.50, meaning that instead of being behind $6.50, I was only down $.50.. Most dont know how to do this..

I'm a stock investor, and I cant tell you the last time I've looked at the DJIA, or the S&P 500 to see where they stand. They could go to $100 and I wouldnt give a flying fig.. The only people that really track them are huge investors/hedge funds who have money in all of them.. Most individuals though dont, and should only be concerned about what they are holding.
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