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Are you all going to jump out before the October to Christmas 2009 crash?
Just asking. Kind of amuses me a little in a human study sort of way.
I do not have any stocks, etc., myself.
Statements like this is why so many have missed out on this rally. Remember it was statements like the usual summer flight to safety that convinced people to stay out of the market this summer. You know people are going on vacation and will pull out for a safe harbor and come back after labor day. Folks are welcomed to listen to you but this thread was started and smiled on by folks who didn't listen to nay sayers who were wrong.
One a lighter note, if you lose all your gains because you didn't cash out in time, it's money you never had anyway...
Unfortunately, since the stock market has just become a way to make a quick buck and pull out ASAP rather than a tool for long-term investing, many will be right back to square-root one.
Actually, I imagine the majority of people with a stake in the market are using it as a retirement account via funds, and rarely make many moves at all. I doubt the number of day traders or short term investors has changed much as a percent of the population.
Statements like this is why so many have missed out on this rally. Remember it was statements like the usual summer flight to safety that convinced people to stay out of the market this summer. You know people are going on vacation and will pull out for a safe harbor and come back after labor day. Folks are welcomed to listen to you but this thread was started and smiled on by folks who didn't listen to nay sayers who were wrong.
Miss out on what?
I make my own money on my own money.
Why would I ship it to a bunch of dirtbags in suits in NYC?
Makes no matter to me what folks do with their money, I was just asking if they were going to jump out before the next crash. I get some entertainment out of the whole theater, although I guess folks that send the money must like the adventure?
Even if there were no re-crash coming, I would not ship my money to a bunch of dirtbags in suits in NYC. So up or down makes no matter to me.
Overall, I have recovered pretty well with a 34% ROCE so far this calendar year. I haven't yet recovered 100% but expect that to come in the not too distant future.
I am even going back 3 years and a bit up over 5. In 2007 I stopped buying most equities and started to retire mortgage debt. I did have a smallish poorly timed sell in March at the bottom of all things because I wanted better reserve cash but I am no market timer.
Its pretty arbitrary as of now. If the FED buys more treasuries then the market will rise, if not , it will fall. The sell was before I had news of the 300 billion in treasuries purchases. After that I moved some into energy. New money has yet to come from banks or normal business activity. So its all about flipping coins about how many treasuries the FED will buy. Private money is still shrinking.
Are you all going to jump out before the October to Christmas 2009 crash?
Just asking. Kind of amuses me a little in a human study sort of way.
I do not have any stocks, etc., myself.
Its a good thing you don't own stocks, as you seem to think you have the ability to predict their movements.
There is no particular reason why stocks would crash in October~Christmas, most investors are aware that this Christmas season is likely to be pretty bad.
I think some people keep expecting depression like behavior in the stock market, but there was not a large bubble in stocks before the recession like there was during the depression.
Its a good thing you don't own stocks, as you seem to think you have the ability to predict their movements.
There is no particular reason why stocks would crash in October~Christmas, most investors are aware that this Christmas season is likely to be pretty bad.
I think some people keep expecting depression like behavior in the stock market, but there was not a large bubble in stocks before the recession like there was during the depression.
More pre-caution than pre-diction.
And no particular reason it should have crashed last fall, either?
Or is there some sort of 20/20 hindsight you have on that non-prediction?
I think there is a reasonable caution that this model follows closely on the (last) depression. Return rise on stocks, extended bleak unemployment now and ahead, trade out of balance, folks up to their eyeballs in debt . . . . on and on . . . but I know, I know, someone will hold up a number flash card and announce LOOKY HERE! A NEW MAGIC (up/down/left/right) NUMBER! Everything is gonna be alright! Go back to sleep, all is fine. Meanwhile the first class passengers keep boarding the lifeboats.
Do you think if normal folks were not bribed with their 401Ks, etc., they would be dumb enough to play?
I have noticed that my account is backup almost to the same level but my broker is doing alot of short investments then taking porfit alot more.Also the level of stocks is much lower than before. i talked to him and he said the markets are still very violatal becuase the consumer is still out and that is 70% of the market.In the past emering markets where the place to make money but now you look to companies with alot of cash and that have redcued their overall cost.
And no particular reason it should have crashed last fall, either?
Actually yes, the markets crashed after the credit markets started to freeze up and it was pretty obvious months before it happened that Lehman Brothers, etc were going to go bankrupt.
Late last summer was filled with doom and gloom, almost the opposite this right now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T
I think there is a reasonable caution that this model follows closely on the (last) depression. Return rise on stocks, extended bleak unemployment now and ahead, trade out of balance, folks up to their eyeballs in debt . . . . on and on . . .
Sure, if by "reasonable caution" you mean extremely unlikely. This recession has already behaved much differently and it is characteristically a different sort of recession. This is not to mention the massive difference between today's economy and the US economy in the 1930's.
Japan 2 decades ago gives one a much better idea of what is likely to occur, a more similar economy with a more similar sort of asset bubble.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T
Do you think if normal folks were not bribed with their 401Ks, etc., they would be dumb enough to play?
401(k) is just an account with a special tax code, people invest in stocks and such in these accounts for much the same reason they go to Vegas.
The problem is not the 401(k), its the people.
What I find funny about posts like this is that people always talk-up their supposed gains, yet excuse their loses as "paper loses". The fact remains that over the last 10 years, you were better off with your money in a CD or bond than the stock market.
My unrealized losses from last year are well gone, not that there were much to begin with.
I think it's interesting all those who talk crash. There were many posts about the same that was supposed to happen in mid August when all the banks were supposed to be on "bank holidays"...funny how that never materialized when so many were so absolutely sure of it.
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