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Old 08-23-2009, 08:07 PM
 
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I didn't think it would happen this quick, but by last Friday's market closing, I recovered everything I lost in 2008. I didn't do anything special, just sat and left my portfolio alone. Didn't sell when stocks crashed. I did add some money in March and April right when the market was bottoming. The purchase timing was just a coincidence since that's when my funds for my SEP-IRA became available for deployment.

What really helped the quick recovery was my sizeable stake in small cap value and foreign small cap (emerging market) stocks, which have rallied massively since March. It also helped that my municipal bonds gained significantly in 2009.

Anyone else have the same experience with your portfolios?
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Old 08-23-2009, 08:16 PM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
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I left a job in August 08 and have not contributed to nor adjusted the retirement plan I had there since. The portfolio is up about 6% from the August 08 level as of July 31 after having dipped about 8% in the fall/winter.
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Old 08-23-2009, 09:04 PM
 
5,413 posts, read 10,364,076 times
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Soooo.

Are you all going to jump out before the October to Christmas 2009 crash?

Just asking. Kind of amuses me a little in a human study sort of way.

I do not have any stocks, etc., myself.
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Old 08-23-2009, 09:06 PM
 
Location: Sierra Vista, AZ
16,706 posts, read 22,080,258 times
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My neighbor just sold his house, identicle to mine, for more than I paid three years ago.

Sounds like things are getting better

Last edited by Boompa; 08-23-2009 at 09:26 PM..
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Old 08-23-2009, 09:41 PM
 
Location: H-town, TX.
3,503 posts, read 6,388,870 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
Soooo.

Are you all going to jump out before the October to Christmas 2009 crash?

Just asking. Kind of amuses me a little in a human study sort of way.

I do not have any stocks, etc., myself.
Word.

One a lighter note, if you lose all your gains because you didn't cash out in time, it's money you never had anyway...

Unfortunately, since the stock market has just become a way to make a quick buck and pull out ASAP rather than a tool for long-term investing, many will be right back to square-root one.
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Old 08-24-2009, 06:26 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
5,726 posts, read 10,591,226 times
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Being that it's a retirement fund, it would be stupid to jump out and pay the penalty. The mix is pretty diversified as it is, but I may tweak the balance a little. Just because some people have played the market for a quick gain (or loss) doesn't mean everybody is doing it. When I started working, the Dow was at 1300, and I still have about 20 years to go before thinking about taking out these funds. I can wait it out.

btw, it works both ways - people who didn't cash out when the market bottomed in March didn't take that full loss.
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Old 08-24-2009, 07:04 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
8,082 posts, read 11,888,780 times
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Quote:
ndfmnlf
I did add some money in March and April right when the market was bottoming. The purchase timing was just a coincidence since that's when my funds for my SEP-IRA became available for deployment.

What really helped the quick recovery was my sizable stake in small cap value and foreign small cap (emerging market) stocks, which have rallied massively since March. It also helped that my municipal bonds gained significantly in 2009.

Anyone else have the same experience with your portfolios?
I recovered about half-way, mainly on various bonds (US, international, corporate, municipal, specialty), a bit on equities.

I made a mistake one-two years ago by not diversifying into small caps, especially international, and unfortunately I have money available for investment only now, I was reluctant in the first quarter to part with cash, as most people.

Quote:
Philip T
Are you all going to jump out before the October to Christmas 2009 crash?
Yeah, I am concerned that the markets have rallied too far too fast, certainly outpacing the fundamentals, and about a speculative bubble in China, emerging markets headquarters. How many people expect, or at least have a gut feeling about, a sharp pull-back in the fourth quarter?

Quote:
AlfredB1979
the stock market has just become a way to make a quick buck and pull out ASAP rather than a tool for long-term investing
Though I do invest in the markets with a long-term view, it is a relatively small percentage of my assets: I have always believed that the best investment is in one's self and in one's own business and my main goal over the next several years is to improve that position, though I will still allocate some assets to the financial markets in general.

Do others share this view that the stock market, in particular, is no longer a tool for long-term investment?

Alfred1979, are you referring to the stock market only, or to all financial markets in general. What alternatives do you suggest, both financial and in the first person, so to speak, if any?
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Old 08-24-2009, 07:17 AM
 
4,182 posts, read 6,031,913 times
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Just looking back over the past 12 years, my net worth has increased by 7 times since 1997 when I started investing in a meaningful way. This period covers the dot com bubble, dot com crash, 9/11 terrorist attack, Afghanistan and Iraq wars, real estate bubble, real estate crash, oil price spike (in 2007), stock market crash and financial system collapse (in 2008). Who knows what the future will bring, but it is interesting to see that despite all these shocks to our economy, persistent and disciplined saving and investing has worked (for me anyway). No magic bullet here, just good old fashioned living below your means, saving and investing the surplus in a diversified portfolio of cash, high quality bonds, blue chip stocks (US and foreign), small cap stocks (US and foreign), REITS, and precious metals.
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Old 08-24-2009, 07:33 AM
 
4,182 posts, read 6,031,913 times
Reputation: 1726
Quote:
I recovered about half-way, mainly on various bonds (US, international, corporate, municipal, specialty), a bit on equities.

I made a mistake one-two years ago by not diversifying into small caps, especially international, and unfortunately I have money available for investment only now, I was reluctant in the first quarter to part with cash, as most people.
I see what you mean. In March when my SEP-IRA money became available, I looked at the price to book values of all asset classes. I noticed that small cap value stocks (VBR) had a P/B ratio of only 0.8. I figured it was too cheap to pass up. The ratio meant that all small cap companies would have liquidated all their hard assets for only 80 cents on the dollar. I recall Ben Graham saying that a P/B ratio of 1.5 or less represents good value.
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Old 08-24-2009, 08:22 AM
 
31,030 posts, read 37,133,600 times
Reputation: 13326
Quote:
Originally Posted by ndfmnlf View Post
I didn't think it would happen this quick, but by last Friday's market closing, I recovered everything I lost in 2008. I didn't do anything special, just sat and left my portfolio alone. Didn't sell when stocks crashed. I did add some money in March and April right when the market was bottoming. The purchase timing was just a coincidence since that's when my funds for my SEP-IRA became available for deployment.

What really helped the quick recovery was my sizeable stake in small cap value and foreign small cap (emerging market) stocks, which have rallied massively since March. It also helped that my municipal bonds gained significantly in 2009.

Anyone else have the same experience with your portfolios?
While not back 100% mine has done one heck of a recovery. I feel sorry for the people listening to the doom and gloom forum and political pundits who have them thinking the economy is still tanking and they are sitting the market out still. The index's have had a phenomenal run since the March lows. Yet on the way down the drop was a daily headline and the rush back up has not gotten the same coverage. Sorry Dorothy the sky is falling and many of us are basking in the ever getting sunnier and bluer skys.

Yes Dorothy the Dow is up 3000 points! Did you hear that blasted on the news!
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