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It shows the lob losses in all post-depression recessions. Not only is this one the deepest yet, but almost every recession prior to this one was already seeing a dramatic improvement in the number of jobs lost (The only exception being the weak recovery after the 2001 recession).
Anyhow, seems like a lot of businesses (particularly small) are planning on some sort of robust recovery. At least in the areas I'm involved with, I don't see them adjusting their models.
The obama administration recently announced the recession was over much the same way bush announced the end of the iraq war in 2003.
But every friend, family and random person I met out there has taken an income hit, job loss or knows someone close who has. The unemployment is higher than 10% no doubt.
I do a lot of work for car manufacturers and in my line of work it is the same dead feel as last fall. Not a whole lot is happening. And I don't see anything being ramped up for next year.
I travel a lot and I see a lot of empty hotels and restaurants out there. Usually still on friday and saturday night it will be busy, but it is clear to me around the country things have been taken down a notch.
As long as the obama administration continues it's "war on commerce and free markets" with huge threats and realities of more punitive taxes and regulations, businesses will not be investing or hiring for the most part. Everything will be in a holding pattern much as it was in jimmy carters administration.
its not a recession, its a contraction of the economy that 10% unemployment means those jobs are gone, not coming back. 4th round of UIB proves it, next move is welcome to mcdonalds and i dont mean mcdonald douglas. do not buy a house car or take out any loans.
Wait, what about stocking up an ammo and canned meats? Wasn't that all the rage last fall / winter? And when no souplines formed and there were not armed mobs looting grocery stores people realized that maybe it would be good to take advantage of super low rates and reduced housing prices.
Buy a home you can afford. Keep your debt to a manageable level. Improve your skills to maximize your employability.
this is going to be one ugly bubble bust. we have a government, in conjunction with wall street, trying to drive the US dollar down, to inflate the "emerging" markets.
So what is behind this massive rally? Certainly it has been helped by a wave of liquidity from near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing. But a more important factor fuelling this asset bubble is the weakness of the US dollar, driven by the mother of all carry trades. The US dollar has become the major funding currency of carry trades as the Fed has kept interest rates on hold and is expected to do so for a long time. Investors who are shorting the US dollar to buy on a highly leveraged basis higher-yielding assets and other global assets are not just borrowing at zero interest rates in dollar terms; they are borrowing at very negative interest rates – as low as negative 10 or 20 per cent annualised – as the fall in the US dollar leads to massive capital gains on short dollar positions.
Let us sum up: traders are borrowing at negative 20 per cent rates to invest on a highly leveraged basis on a mass of risky global assets that are rising in price due to excess liquidity and a massive carry trade. Every investor who plays this risky game looks like a genius – even if they are just riding a huge bubble financed by a large negative cost of borrowing – as the total returns have been in the 50-70 per cent range since March.
Last edited by floridasandy; 11-09-2009 at 05:07 AM..
people realized that maybe it would be good to take advantage of super low rates and reduced housing prices.
Yeah, reduce....but from what? Most areas that were inflated 2-3 years ago are still inflated. The lower interest rates is the only thing that makes them at all "affordable", but what happens when interest rates return to more historic averages?
Regardless, this has little to do with what I'm pointing out which is that the employment data suggests that any recovery is going to be extremely sluggish.
this is going to be one ugly bubble bust. we have a government, in conjunction with wall street, trying to drive the US dollar down, to inflate the "emerging" markets.
So what is behind this massive rally? Certainly it has been helped by a wave of liquidity from near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing. But a more important factor fuelling this asset bubble is the weakness of the US dollar, driven by the mother of all carry trades. The US dollar has become the major funding currency of carry trades as the Fed has kept interest rates on hold and is expected to do so for a long time. Investors who are shorting the US dollar to buy on a highly leveraged basis higher-yielding assets and other global assets are not just borrowing at zero interest rates in dollar terms; they are borrowing at very negative interest rates – as low as negative 10 or 20 per cent annualised – as the fall in the US dollar leads to massive capital gains on short dollar positions.
Let us sum up: traders are borrowing at negative 20 per cent rates to invest on a highly leveraged basis on a mass of risky global assets that are rising in price due to excess liquidity and a massive carry trade. Every investor who plays this risky game looks like a genius – even if they are just riding a huge bubble financed by a large negative cost of borrowing – as the total returns have been in the 50-70 per cent range since March.
Every word cut & pasted from Dr. R...
If I could ask Dr. R one question it would be simply:
"Doc, you say that 'the Fed seem unaware of the monster bubble they are creating.' yet WHAT SIGNS WOULD THERE BE IF THEY ARE NOT BLIND AT ALL, but fully expect that the best way to "softly land" people of the US into getting back toward a more normal level of economic activity is to allow global currency flows to expand the markets for US goods, services, and equities ??? "
Could Ben & Co really be THAT GOOD? Maybe...[/list]
Unlike the past when we still had a manufacturing base to return on, those jobs are gone to china. And the idiots in DC caan not see the damage they have done is far more than what some whitehouse political pundant spins.
Wait, what about stocking up an ammo and canned meats? Wasn't that all the rage last fall / winter? And when no souplines formed and there were not armed mobs looting grocery stores people realized that maybe it would be good to take advantage of super low rates and reduced housing prices.
Buy a home you can afford. Keep your debt to a manageable level. Improve your skills to maximize your employability.
the poo poo of armed mobs in not merited. canned goods and firearms are a great idea. for those who made it out of NO and katrina, its genius-- for the 10,000 that died it would have made a difference.
btw hurricans dont make stab wounds and bullet holes in bodies.
if you think the "recession" is over we are not on the same page.
how many IOU's do you think the government can write b4 somebody demands payment?
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Why not put quotes where they belong?
