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There is a lot of revisionism about Reagan, but Reagan was a product of good timing more than anything else. The early 80's recession was caused by an oil shortage in 1979 that caused gasoline to double in price in less than 6 months and there were periods of time where you simply could not buy it at any price. This had the effect of pushing the economy off the cliff and it got worse when Iran and Iraq went to war in late 1980 which had the effect of causing more shortages. They started attacking each others oil tankers and terminals which caused widespread panic in the oil business and supply.
The way this issue got fixed was that Reagan/Bush sent Donald Rumsfield, to make an oil deal with Saddam Hussein. We traded weapons technology with Saddam in return for oil guarantees. This along with Reagan's deficit spending, (he pushed the US deficit to new unprecedented levels had the effect of causing a business boom that wasn't sustainable. By the time that Bush Sr took office in 1988 we were headed back to another recession despite gasoline having dropped to something like 85 cents/gallon.
Reagan did nothing good for the economy for the USA. His fixes where short term and the advent of Reaganism, i.e. business can do no wrong and should not be regulated, has climaxed in the mess that we have now. Clinton and Bush Jr. all subscribed to the same economic theories and this is why the USA is in the toilet now.
Ironically if Carter's programs had not been scrapped by Reagan/Bush, the USA would be in much better shape today because they would have gotten us off having to import oil. For attempting to do something like this, and asking Americans to sacrifice, Carter has been relentlessly demonized by the press and right ever since. I should also add that I voted for Reagan and even though I felt good about it at the time, in hindsight, it wasn't the right decision. I was pissed off by our seemingly inepitude about the hostages, but in looking at what has happened with Iraq, Carter did the right thing by not starting a war with Iran.
I was searching on Google for old newspaper articles from Dec. 1982 and Jan. 1983, and came upon this article from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazzette dated January 29, 1983:
I thought this was an interesting line from the article:
"Feldstein also acknowledged that the nation's unemployment rate- already at a 42-year high of 10.8 percent - could edge over 11 percent this year before beginning a slow decline."
Last edited by downtownnola; 11-16-2009 at 11:05 PM..
Reason: Typo
"Feldstein also acknowledged that the nation's unemployment rate- already at a 42-year high of 10.8 percent - could edge over 11 percent this year before beginning a slow decline."
I've said this before; One of the greatest weaknesses of people in general is linear thinking. When things are good most assume things will always be good or even get better. When things are bad the opposite is true. One key to success is to fade the mass pyschcology.
I agree with gard.
Even i saw in city a lot of work places are unfilled. "Yes right degress from right places got Good careers".
I am also recession Victim. Working as TL for small company and all of a sudden it got closed.
I was getting ready to attend college, had to put myself through as there were job losses. Was fortunate to get a job waiting tables...was happy when people left more than 10% tip. Figured the only way to get ahead in the future was to get a college degree in something that was flexible...went engineering although it wasnt my fave, at least I felt I would always be employable. As a result thats where Im at, employed, making good coin, but not real happy with job, but at least I have one.
People were happy with solid gains and didnt try to have super high expectation on things.
I'm sorry I haven't looked at this in awhile (when almost a day went by with only one response, I left it because I'm rarely in the "Business" forum), but I want to thank you all, those were great stories and feel free to keep them coming!
A couple of them I was able to really relate to; I was of the age that I was VERY into MTV, and two stories relate to me today (both my wife and I are sub teaching and I may be tutoring p/t soon; and I did a temporary assignment in another state this summer where I lived apart during the week, I also have had some prospects where if any came through we'd live apart for a year while we try to sell our condo and time it where it doesn't disrupt school for the kids).
I won't comment too much on the political responses, except that so far I think Obama is more like Clinton in 1993 (for those that remember, it was a jobless recovery and he was quite vilified by the right....and a health care debate in Congress to boot) than Carter in 1979. But I think the next year is critical in whether he turns into the Clinton of 1996-2000 (minus the Lewinsky stuff) or if he is in danger of some things really blowing up in his face that will make him the modern day Carter. The economy is obvious, the other is whether having the Gitmo trials in NYC and the prison moved to Illinois becomes a big security issue or not. And also whether health care actually happens (though in 1994 that didn't sink Clinton in the end, nor losing Congress which I think has a 50-50 chance of happening in 2010).
I won't comment too much on the political responses, except that so far I think Obama is more like Clinton in 1993 (for those that remember, it was a jobless recovery and he was quite vilified by the right....and a health care debate in Congress to boot) than Carter in 1979. But I think the next year is critical in whether he turns into the Clinton of 1996-2000 (minus the Lewinsky stuff) or if he is in danger of some things really blowing up in his face that will make him the modern day Carter. The economy is obvious, the other is whether having the Gitmo trials in NYC and the prison moved to Illinois becomes a big security issue or not. And also whether health care actually happens (though in 1994 that didn't sink Clinton in the end, nor losing Congress which I think has a 50-50 chance of happening in 2010).
Thanks again!
I think your hope of obama turning into a bipartisan president is nonexistent.
Obama is a narcissist and it's all about him. He's not someone who could ever truthfully admit he is wrong, nor someone about to deviate from his radical agenda to compromise.
Clinton was a sociopath who wanted to be as popular as possible. When his agenda wasn't going his way and he lost congress, he began to compromise with the other side. However he relied on polls too much and people don't like a person in that type of office that is a follower and not a leader.
Yeah, it was a different world back in the early 80s. We purchased our house in 1981 at 14.5% interest. We started our family in 1983. We were lucky that we didn't have to worry about a job loss during this period and I don't remember unemployment being too bad in our area. I do believe that Reagan unified the country and made people feel confident about the future.
I've spent some time going back and looking through old newspapers on microfilm during the 1930s, just by reading the papers, you would never know that they were living through a depression. It's different when you don't have over 200 TV channels Yelling at the top of their lungs just how bad things are with the economy...
Wow, a flash back. In 1983 just had a baby and worked in a bank. By that time I believe the interest rates had started to come down from the highest point and also the value of silver, but I remember the senior citizens were starting to worry that the rates on their CDs were not going to stay in the high teens. I remember how the tellers could still find the ocassional silver coin which had a very high melt down value.
Interestingly, I don't think at the time my husband or I worried in the slightest about our future the way we do now.
Back then we still had some manufacturing. The computer industry was still in its infancy, and the electronic revolution rebuilt economic activity. Today we are saddled with staggering debt, have the widest gap between rich and poor of all time. More refugees competing for fewer jobs. Peak Oil and higher government regulations. The cap and tax scam that would hurt the average American while giving the useless elite more advantages. Add the general breakdown of morals and loss of freedom and the US in 2009 is very close to the brink of third-world breakdown or revolution. People are getting better informed thanks to the internet, and when they realize how the financial system is rigged and primed to fail, they will be worried.
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