What was the mood in January, 1983 just before the "boom" (student loan, small business)

[7 Wishes]

Hi! I'm hoping to get responses from people who really remember the late 70s/early 80s recession for this topic. Now you see lots of articles on how that was the worst post-Depression downturn until now, and how like now, but in a different way, it had challenges that seemed like they were permanent and insurmountable (particularly high inflation in the middle of all this and the resultant 20% mortgage rates, or the big loss of manufacturing in the Rust Belt, or having GDP growth turn sour again).

Yet, somehow in mid-1983 it started to turn around with a vengeance. I know from reading articles that we went through periods of 7+% annualized GDP growth and even had a month in late '83 with a net job growth of over 1 million jobs! In a month!

What I'm curious about is what was the mood of the press, of politicians, of the public in the last months of true malaise before the big turnaround. Was anyone really predicting that "prosperity was just around the corner"? Or did people feel like today that we are going to go through this for years to come, if not "forever"?

While I'm old enough to have lived through it (I was in my early-mid teens), I was still young and my parents had a small business that did surprisingly well then, so I don't remember it with the details an adult of the time might or from the perspective of say a 1980 version of a "Depression kid" other than things like my mom one time going out at 4am to beat gas ration lines and fill the tank.

I would be interested to hear responses as I have a feeling that even a couple of months before the unforeseen turnaround, people felt as they do right now.

[chet everett]

I was working in real estate and taking college classes with both adults and undergrads. Media was very different, half hour nightly network news gave very little specifics to the economy. Specialized business news shows were very boring and targeted the DJIA. Wow all 30 companies...

The changes came first from a different focus of the business sections of the newspapers, eventually bubbling into the 'regular' news sections with stories about the ill effects of big government entitlements and lack of thought as to who was being subsidized to do nothing and the effect of competition from overseas.

Personal computers were much less "connected" and the online world was mostly filled with people at Univerisities studying the traditional 'planet wide' sciences like physics / astronomy.

The shifts in taxation and benefits to those that were chronically under-employed really turned the mood of the country. As more and more technology became more and more common place all sorts of productivity gains and changes in work processes became the norm. For folks that worked "on the line" adding little value to low priced goods much low skill labor employment was eliminated, so prosperity was NEVER uniform. For those that upped their skills and got into sectors of the economy that were growing things really moved quickly.

It is hard to say what changes will help the most now, but the fact that our misguided leaders in Washington are trying to use this downturn to make it seem that somehow a bigger portion of our economy being shifted to more government control regulation is very disheartening. It certainly does not have the happy hopeful upbeat feeling of saying "Yes we have problems but we also have the smartest and freest people on Earth and when they are trusted to come up with better solutions that will lead to wonderful things" that was key to both Reagan and Clinton. They were guys that seemed to understand that rooting for American was a key think that leaders of this country need to do.

[Waterlily]

During 1983 we bought a new house and got a 12% VA rate on it. I was a slightly better rate than some people got. Construction of homes started tp pick up.

Lots of people were still out of a job, but many were looking for work. The hot topics for those unemployed was where can we get a job? That part is not too much different than today. People seemed to have a sense of hope that things will get better soon. They did get better but it was kind of a slow improvement. My husband and I were not out of work at this time but over 10% were. I suppose things would seem different depending on what part of the country your lived in at the time.

[gardener34]

I do remember seeing a lot of commercial properties unfilled and for lease signs. I was in college, and during my summer break had to work like all college students. The job I had lined up, ended up not needing me because of the recession, they were laying off staff. And I ended up doing phone sales, something I never wish to do again. Just like nowadays, even the fast foods were not hiring. But it seems that downturn was shorter in length. Like others, I remember interest rates being really high. I think my student loans percentage rate was pretty high.

Back then I personally believe, that industry was waning, but people went and got degrees and got white collar jobs. Now, those are disappearing as well. People who had the right degrees from the right places got real good careers. Now, maybe not. They may be unemployed.

It will be another jobless recover, I predict we will have permanent 8-10% unemployment. (my 2 cents)

[Teak]

In early 1983, I had just finished a masters degree program and chose to move back to where I had been living before without a job offer. I remember at that time that jobs for my discipline (hydrology) were in short supply, thus, I did not have many options anyway. They were hiring in Wyoming, on the coal fields, but that is the only place that I remember hearing about having opportunities.

After moving back, I found a job with a consulting engineer by knocking on doors and having resume in hand. The economy seemed to be slowly recovering, but things began to pick up that summer at least where I had moved.

[North Beach Person]

The old manufacturing sector was in a state of collapse, most have not returned. In Western PA many of the mines shut down and coal production shifted to the western states.
My area in PA has never really recovered and the only reason the unemployment rate has been lower since then is because so many people moved, although the unemployment rate has always been 2% or 3% higher than the national rate.
In 1983 I had been unemployed since the late summer/early fall of 1982 and did not find a full-time job until Feb. of 1984 when I was offered a teaching job in MD. My wife and I survived (she also was laid off periodically during that time) by substitute teaching ($30/day if I remember), some tutoring and day laboring. Also some off season hunting put food on the table.

[smellykat]

The early '80's was a tough time for us too. My husband was laid off in January 1982. I was a pregnant, stay at home mom. My husband found employment a few months later only to be laid off again. I went back to work when our second child was a month old. My husband stayed home, caring for a newborn and a 16 month old, while seeking employment. He was offered a job in November 1982 in a different state. We were unable to sell our house so we lived apart for 15 months. We finally sold the house at a total loss. It was a very stressful time in my life, but I always had hope. After all, our dads and uncles were WWII veterans, the greatest generation, and we lived in the greatest country in the world.

As I reflect upon our country today, I no longer feel that sense of optimism.

[texdav]

Basically the main diffence I see in the 70 recession and this one is that inflation was in double digits then and very low now. Unemployent was also in double digits. The 80's recession was not near as bad. I think that is why so mnay are saving;as they rememeber what double digit inflation idid to very on then. this one seems to have hit harder at wall street and companies that were shky before the recessio like the auto inductry and related industry. The 70's did that to some inductry and many took 20 or more years to start to really recover much in the areas effected. Soem never came back as they were too far down and couldn't attract many new businesses. that is what worries me is some areas will be taken so far down and infrastucture that no company will want to move there for decades to come.Right now wal street owes alot of money to the taxpayers and there is easy ;caeap money available;so I'll be watching for when the fed turns to higher interest rates and that dries up.It probably be a long time until the Big three have a chance of showing a profit without things like cash for clunkers and even payoff those laons if they even do.When the stimulus funds run out there will be alot of sdates where teachers will be facing layoffs as that is the most stimulus spending according to government reports.You know trouble is ahead when democrats and republicans have agreed to a commission to look at all government programs with part of the board mnadeup of outside people and all saying they will put the finding to a up or down vote because the government cost are unstainable.

[Bette]

Ronald Reagan was great with words and united people. Maybe it was that we didn't have fax machines or the Internet as we know it today. CNN was just starting. I think MTV was out there too with real music then. We didn't have 24 hour news. Maybe that was kind of nice.

People got newspapers and read them - usually as a family.

In 1984, I got a phone in my car. It was huge but one of the first. Very cool.

In 1980, I bought a townhome for $90,000 - my interest rate was 17.25% and yes, I put down 25% which I got from the sale from a condo.

I worked 2 jobs and went to college. Looking back, those seem like simple times.

In 1982/1983, I/we started a business. It was tied to the mortgage market. Was I crazy? Interest rates were 17%. I borrowed $20K from my brother, he became my 25% partner on a handshake, then we spent 17 years in business together, had up to 34 employees. Looking back, the best time of my life - from my 20's to the early 40's.

I don't remember employment being particularly bad in our area at that time (South Florida) but a lot more was made here. You still had a lot of small business. (The PC was born in my city) (Note: So sad Don Estridge was killed in the Delta plane crash in 1985 - we will never know some of the great things that may have happened).

IMO, small business is what has defined this country. You can come here with an idea and there is hope. Work hard, there is hope. With all this outsourcing and NAFTA, this is truly killing America.

In the 1980's, I felt hopeful. I still feel hopeful but I feel there is more anger, more hate, more media trying to sensationalize something usually trivial.

I hate losing small town America with all the small towns and their own feel. I hate the big box stores coming in and buying up all the small firms and then loosing the feel and the community of the small town.

We now have the lowest interest rates ever and need to get straight again as a country IMO.

[wanneroo]

Originally Posted by Bette

We now have the lowest interest rates ever and need to get straight again as a country IMO.

Seems like history has repeated itself and it's the late 70's all over again with all sorts of self loathing and self hating going on and embarrassment from some over our country and it's strengths.

Who will replace obama, as Reagan replaced carter, I don't yet. But someone has to come along I'd hope that can inspire the populace we are a good and great people with endless potential.