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Old 12-26-2009, 07:44 PM
 
1,679 posts, read 2,726,869 times
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Here is a myth about China...

What country is the largest exporter in the world. Hint it isn't China.

List of countries by exports - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 12-27-2009, 07:12 PM
 
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I still think China is THE world's biggest exporter... they export CHEAP stuff... the list measures monetary value... they export more than anyone and also cheaper than anyone.... with that said, I wonder what Germany sells with so much value and who do they trade with... are they sending Mercedes everywhere?
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Old 12-28-2009, 11:37 AM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
8,998 posts, read 13,671,520 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evilnewbie View Post
I still think China is THE world's biggest exporter... they export CHEAP stuff... the list measures monetary value... they export more than anyone and also cheaper than anyone.... with that said, I wonder what Germany sells with so much value and who do they trade with... are they sending Mercedes everywhere?
Perty much.

I still can't believe the U.S. is number three....maybe it's all the food we export...
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Old 12-30-2009, 09:01 PM
 
Location: Shanghai
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Quote:
they export CHEAP stuff... the list measures monetary value... they export more than anyone and also cheaper than anyone
Imagine people work for 10 hours a day for 4 US dollars.
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Old 01-05-2010, 10:50 AM
 
Location: Seattle
1,739 posts, read 2,172,062 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hartford_renter View Post
Here is a myth about China...

What country is the largest exporter in the world. Hint it isn't China.

List of countries by exports - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Epic Fail.

China is the largest exporter in the world. They surpassed Germany last year, and will definitely surpass Germany this year. Next time, don't rely on outdated Wikipedia for your myth-busting. Secondly, what's more important is the pace of China's ascent. China moved up from 10 to 1 within a decade.

http://www.joc.com/node/413089
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Old 01-05-2010, 05:34 PM
 
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i certainly wouldn't say epic fail.
last year:
Germany remained the leading merchandise exporter in 2008, with shipments worth $1.47 trillion, despite the fact that its share in world exports fell to 9.1% from 9.5% in 2007 (Appendix Table 3). China was the second largest, with exports of $1.43 trillion and an 8.9% share in world. Rounding out the top 5 exporters were the United States ($1.3 trillion or 8.1% of world), Japan ($782 billion, 4.9%), and the Netherlands ($634 billion, 3.9%).

The United States continued to lead all merchandise importers with shipments from the rest of the world worth $2.17 trillion (13.2%). Germany was the second largest importer of merchandise, with a 7.3% share valued at $1.21 trillion. The remaining top five importers were China in third place, ($1.13 trillion or 6.9%), Japan in fourth ($762 billion, 4.6%), and France in fifth ($708 billion, 4.3%.)

i am unaware of any release for the final statistics for 2009 yet.

i know that a lot of china's ascendency had to do with american profligate spending, and those days are pretty much over now.
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Old 01-05-2010, 06:33 PM
 
Location: Seattle
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Originally Posted by floridasandy View Post
i certainly wouldn't say epic fail.
last year:
Germany remained the leading merchandise exporter in 2008, with shipments worth $1.47 trillion, despite the fact that its share in world exports fell to 9.1% from 9.5% in 2007 (Appendix Table 3). China was the second largest, with exports of $1.43 trillion and an 8.9% share in world. Rounding out the top 5 exporters were the United States ($1.3 trillion or 8.1% of world), Japan ($782 billion, 4.9%), and the Netherlands ($634 billion, 3.9%).

The United States continued to lead all merchandise importers with shipments from the rest of the world worth $2.17 trillion (13.2%). Germany was the second largest importer of merchandise, with a 7.3% share valued at $1.21 trillion. The remaining top five importers were China in third place, ($1.13 trillion or 6.9%), Japan in fourth ($762 billion, 4.6%), and France in fifth ($708 billion, 4.3%.)

i am unaware of any release for the final statistics for 2009 yet.

i know that a lot of china's ascendency had to do with american profligate spending, and those days are pretty much over now.
Epic Fail Part II.

The 2009 numbers are in except for November and December (but they cannot overcome the sheer size of the gap). China has surpassed Germany last year.
China Dethrones Germany as Top Goods Exporter - WSJ.com

From the Wall Street Journal article: "China's ascendancy has been accelerated by the international financial crisis, from which it has suffered less than other major economies."

There goes your theory on China's ascendancy. Try again.
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Old 01-05-2010, 06:51 PM
 
12,869 posts, read 13,703,631 times
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okay, nostradamus.

first of all, in your epic fail #1 you corrected the OP and said that china passed germany last year, which clearly wasn't the case. it is entirely possible that they will pass germany this year but i still am not aware of the year end numbers being in yet.

i wouldn't know why you would deny that china's rapid growth was due, in large part, to a consuming binge by the united states.

i thought this was an interesting analysis from a letter to the NYT:[name and location omitted, but an expat living in Shanghai]

I wonder why Mr. Ross chose to overlook China’s immense internal deficiencies when he contributed his analysis of Chimerica. I live right down the street from the university he teaches at, Jiao Tong, and I as someone intensely interested in the Chinese economy and a voracious consumer of information regarding that subject I must disagree with much of what he said.

Yes, the Chinese economy was better positioned to weather the financial storm – largely because it’s banks were strong and solvent, having purged themselves of most of their bad loans over the preceding decade. The banks – rather than the stimulus – have been the driver of China’s GDP growth over the past year, doling out trillions of rmb, much of which went to the construction of as-of-now useless factories and apartment blocks or ended up inflating the stock and real estate bubbles. So the banks have in effect mired themselves back in a position of weakness, as much of their lending they will never see again. From my office now I can gaze out at a massive new edifice of glass and concrete that was landscaped 6 months ago, yet has never been used. Who takes the loss on this building? The banks, though China will claim the GDP boost now and sort out the detritus later.

So much of the GDP here is smoke and mirrors, artificially pumped up by constructing buildings that remain empty, or fleets of cars that sit idle in car parks so that the leadership can brag that they sold more cars than America. A strange feature of Chinese GDP calculation (and retail sale calculation) is that it counts toward GDP when it is sold from the factory to the business, not from the business to the consumer. So many here think that the government and SOEs have been hoarding goods in warehouses and claiming the GDP boost.

China will have to deal with their profligate ways, just as America and Japan have had to deal with theirs. China, despite
decades of close partnership with foreign companies, has been largely unsuccessful in creating their own brand or developing innovative products – even something like the Iphone, famously made by FoxComm in Shenzhen, is merely assembled there, with the high-tech parts shipped in from Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

China better enjoy its brief moment in the sun as the recognized economic leader, because soon enough the growth rates will come down (easy money and excess goods can only mask the internal problems for so long), and she have to settle for more pedestrian growth and all the unique problems this entails for her. (end letter)

we have a global downturn and EVERY country is affected.

Last edited by floridasandy; 01-05-2010 at 07:17 PM..
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Old 01-10-2010, 08:56 AM
 
1,679 posts, read 2,726,869 times
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Originally Posted by Guineas View Post
Epic Fail Part II.

The 2009 numbers are in except for November and December (but they cannot overcome the sheer size of the gap). China has surpassed Germany last year.
China Dethrones Germany as Top Goods Exporter - WSJ.com

From the Wall Street Journal article: "China's ascendancy has been accelerated by the international financial crisis, from which it has suffered less than other major economies."

There goes your theory on China's ascendancy. Try again.
China is quite literally "the next big bubble"...

The China Bubble's Coming -- But Not the One You Think | Foreign Policy

China’s coming magnificent bubble | Analysis & Opinion | Reuters

Coming Soon: The Great Bubble of China

You also have to consider China's gdp numbers cannot be trusted. There is widespread corruption, I dont have any confidence in their stock market either.

Also Germany has 80 million people vs. >1 billion for China, think about it.
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Old 01-10-2010, 06:34 PM
 
Location: Seattle
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Originally Posted by hartford_renter View Post
China is quite literally "the next big bubble"..

You also have to consider China's gdp numbers cannot be trusted. There is widespread corruption, I dont have any confidence in their stock market either.

Also Germany has 80 million people vs. >1 billion for China, think about it.

China's GDP numbers can't be trusted? Take a look at where most of the things in your house is made. Those are tangible things. What's hard for me to trust is that a rickidy house in California or New Jersey is worth $700,000. Or that it cost the city of Boston $15 billion and 20 years to dig a 3-mile tunnel (Big Dig). Corruption clearly isn't limited to China.

If anything, China's GDP number is severely understated because of their currency manipulation.

Last edited by Guineas; 01-10-2010 at 06:45 PM..
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