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Old 12-30-2009, 11:26 AM
 
Location: The land of sugar... previously Houston and Austin
5,429 posts, read 13,960,520 times
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I have a general question about retail/commercial expansion and building.

In states like Texas, where people continue to move in and the recession hasn't hit as hard as in other places, some local real estate experts are predicting the more populated areas (Houston, DFW, Austin etc.) could actually have a housing shortage in the upcoming few years. Many newer areas already have a shortage of inventory homes because builders can no longer build them without showing the banks a profit first (or so I'm told.)

Not only this, but there are several new suburban developments that had plans for retail/commercial, but this is not materializing. I'm told it's because of the banks tightening up. New homes are going up and being bought, but everything else to serve the new homes (like retail) seems almost at a standstill.

Does anyone with more knowledge than me, have an idea of a timeline of when the banks might free up cash for this kind of retail and commercial expansion?
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Old 12-30-2009, 04:43 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
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Well by me (Austin area) there are some subdivisions where building just stopped. Still plenty of lots growing weeds and they let their plats expire with the city. I don't know where they think this shortage is..I don't see a shortage; I see a glut still.
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Old 12-31-2009, 09:09 AM
 
Location: Keller, TX
5,674 posts, read 5,763,965 times
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I think I've seen this a bit. The demand is here, but the building or the moving in isn't happening. The neighborhood is growing like crazy but commercial/retail isn't commensurately expanding. The result is we have to drive a little further to a little more crowded locations for our goods and services. I like in a "suburb" of DFW (voted the 7th best town to live in in the US).

One problem here is retail is waiting for a huge expansion of two roads that have become main thoroughfares -- one of them going from two lanes to seven lanes. It was supposed to start in 2009 (actually it has a history going back to 2007) but drops in tax revenue and matching funds and reallocation of state funds pushed it off again.

Can't help on the business loan prediction, but it'll happen, just maybe more slowly.
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Old 12-31-2009, 11:19 AM
 
Location: Texas
5,872 posts, read 7,512,970 times
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There will be a trickle of an uptick in commercial building late '10, but only for the more capitalized and cash heavy big hitters of the industry. None of the large and expansive projects. Small/medium in/out quick projects only. 2011 will see more of a positive trend but only incrementally in the first half. From there it's up in the air as to how bad/little the economy has retracted/retraced it's gains from mid '10 and what actions the FED & Gov't have taken as their position(s) as to where people/firms position themselves for the rest of '11 and '12-'14.

So in short...don't hold your breath for any new mega construction, be satisfied with smaller projects...those that you can find between '10 and '11...
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Old 12-31-2009, 04:37 PM
 
Location: The land of sugar... previously Houston and Austin
5,429 posts, read 13,960,520 times
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Thanks so much txgolfer.... you've been the only one so far who can give me any kind of real answer (not just here on C-D but anywhere).
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Old 01-02-2010, 10:34 AM
 
5,662 posts, read 10,656,424 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AK123 View Post
I have a general question about retail/commercial expansion and building.
Ok, fair enough. Let me finish this next sentence for you?

Quote:
In states like Texas . . . . some local real estate experts are . . . . .
Chronic BS-ers.

That is it. BS is what bidness in Texas is about.

Does that speak to the confusion between what you are hearing and what you are seeing?

Watch what folks do -- not what they say.
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