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I want to field opinions on where you see the best investment and profit potential in today's market.
This can include anything: domestic equities, bonds, municipal's, ETF's, commodities, emerging and frontier markets, currencies, timber, land, flipping houses, multi-family investments, commercial - retail or office real estate, foreclosure, short sale, REO's, starting a small business - internet based, restaurant, bar, etc.?
I know opportunities can be localized, but I would still like to hear what ventures or investments you are most excited about today. Whether you are putting your money where your mouth is, planning to raise capital, or just have a great idea - let's have a group brainstorm session about profit opportunities, both short and long term.
-Stocks have been flat for, 11 years? A big index like the spx is going to be flat to down for a long time IMO. Potentially 20 years lost after 95/96.
Previous bubbles in the 20's and 60's took 15-20 years to sort out. I don't think this one will be different. It's been papered over more. There are have been more problems created. I just can't see stocks super performing any time soon. Too many structural changes going on under the surface.
-Potential for the next 5-15 years, commodities. But the possibilities of big downdrafts. Trading has gotten so sophisticated and big, expect much more volatity in commodities, oil, than in the 70's, 80's, or 90's. Like the big crash in 08 that scared a lot of people.
But long term the fundamentals of commodities will win over trading volatility. I subscribe to the idea of a commodity super cycle, like talked about by Jim Rogers. But I think timing will be hard if you're stock oriented. Like if gold crashes to $1,000, it's going to scare people.
-Real estate, office real estate, I don't know. Don't follow it.
-Currencies, I dont know. Not an expert.
Small business idea...something that consolidates an industry. Seems like there's so many different industries where no one really dominates. You just have 25-35 weak, marginal players. I notice it traveling. Everyone doing the same thing, saying the same thing. People are skeptical. People don't believe things anymore. I havent seen many businesses adapt to this skepticism. That might be an opportunity going forward.
And my big small business idea...stop trying to be all things to all people. That's all I see. People have spread themselves waaaaaaaaaaay too thin. The average small business is doing too many things, trying to appeal to too many sets of people. Trying to be everywhere. But they don't excel at anything.
you make some good points. I tend to agree with you on stocks. But at the same time, I think other world economies are entering their productive stage as we were in the early 1900's and I think growth will be had there. That is why certain US listed stocks will excel because they have positioned themself with great exposure to the coming growth in those areas.
That goes for commodities too, I am a big Jim rogers fan, and I think his call on commodities is spot on. And emerging economies will undoubtedly help drive that as well.
I think there is opportunity in RE as well, find growing areas that wil prosper in the next 50+ years and buy cash flowing RE - doesn't matter if it's office, multifamily, retail - whatever your comfortable and knowledgeable in.
Currenices, Im not an expert but think you can take some comfort and hedging in aussie, canadian, and swiss curencies as well as some emerging market players - the dollar is being devalued as we speak and you should be diversified away from owning only dollar denominated assets.
That being said, you can get exposure to currencies, commodities, production in emerging economies, corporate profits, diversification and yield by buying multinationals, or ETF's thereof, who have positioned themselves well in the new globalized world economy - no indexes.
Real estate provides opportunity to cash flow in areas poised for future growth and appreciation
And I think small business should not be overlooked as well. I'd love to chat with you on PM about some ideas.
-Ever since I got exposed to Rogers in about 2002/03, I've been very leery of stocks as an investment vehicle. We live in an unprecedented time for individual stocks to be considered as an investment. I don't think there's ever been a generation as stock brainwashed as this one.
In his Investment Biker book, he talked about going to Japan in the early 90's. And everyone there thought stocks went up forever, they had only known a bull market, they didn't know things could change. "But that's not the way the world works". Pretty chilling words I think.
On tv, Rogers talks about everyone could put their money in gold or rice, but most people couldn't even comprehend this kind of thing.
-His call on commodities has been brilliant. They've outperformed stocks by a wide margin since the late 90's. The problem is, he calls it so early, and most people are so minute to minute stock oriented, they miss most of the move.
Jim was buying the yen for awhile, back in I think 08. When it was at 90, now it's up to 120. And he was buying the euro this summer when it crashed. I don't think all the etf's are going to make it. When oil crashed to $35-40 in 09, some of the leveraged oil etfs didnt make it.
I think there was dxo, double long oil. I don't know...the etf's, etn's seem complicated. I dont think you can passively sit on them for years, 5-7 years, and expect no problems or changes.
Jim also thinks we should abolish the Fed, which I am beginning to understand.
Are you playing commodities with miners and producers then? Or tacking it with etf's like SLV, etc?
I think commodities will continue to rise with world development, do you think there is still a good bull marke tleft or do you think the train has left the station, so to speak?
I was thinking about an oil etf back when it crashed to $35-40. But didn't pull the trigger. I haven't studied etf's, etns well enough.
Long term calls might be interesting on some of these, like gld or slv. Have you ever bought lumber? In the past, it's based around $2, but got as low as $1.50 in the '08 crash. It seems like if you buy some of these on their cyclical low, there can't be much downside. They can't go to zero.
Some of these commodities you could play as almost a straight contrarian play. Are there etf's on coffee? I remember when I was in college in 2003 or 04, there was a story about coffee growers. On the front page of a paper like the LA times. They were all getting out of the business, business was horrible. Coffee had been in a long base, at 80 cents....now up to $2.
The train has left the station temporarily, I wouldnt buy gold right now at $1,300. I plan to wait, mainly. I think there will be plenty of opportunities in 2-3 years.
I was thinking about an oil etf back when it crashed to $35-40. But didn't pull the trigger. I haven't studied etf's, etns well enough.
Long term calls might be interesting on some of these, like gld or slv. Have you ever bought lumber? In the past, it's based around $2, but got as low as $1.50 in the '08 crash. It seems like if you buy some of these on their cyclical low, there can't be much downside. They can't go to zero.
Some of these commodities you could play as almost a straight contrarian play. Are there etf's on coffee? I remember when I was in college in 2003 or 04, there was a story about coffee growers. On the front page of a paper like the LA times. They were all getting out of the business, business was horrible. Coffee had been in a long base, at 80 cents....now up to $2.
The train has left the station temporarily, I wouldnt buy gold right now at $1,300. I plan to wait, mainly. I think there will be plenty of opportunities in 2-3 years.
Careful about which etfs you buy. Many of the etfs are just short term gambles. If they buy futures contracts but do not actually take delivery then they have to pay the contango. Usually contango is extremely large for energy futures. Careful. etfs that trade futures are gambling mechanisms for the short term about a few weeks to a month max.
All etfs that trade futures lose money over time. It would be better to buy etfs of many oil corps if you want something more stable, at least the corps pay div to offset the cost associated with etfs.
IMO just buy the corp stocks instead of etfs. WHY pay for a etf of a group of stocks/futures.
Unless you dont have enough money for futures maybe then but even then futures are a gamble unless you take delivery.
I would only invest in silver future etfs if you are going the future etf route because contango is low for gold/silver. Check out the spreads at the comex exchange and compare the months contango.
If you do not know what is contango think of it as options monthly spread. Newbie investors don't know what contango is and make a huge huge mistake.
Be careful about slv as well it did lose some value compared to buying the futures and taking delivery. Reason is simple contango and fees a bit low but it still has that built in, if you plan on keeping it for extremely long times it might be better to buy physical. Only buy etfs if you want to gamble that is all I will say. ETFS suck over the extreme long term.
If you have the money I would say buy a future contract right off and pay for delivery. (********* comex) Anyway take delivery and maybe even sell your own contract on comex if you have a lot.
Anyway I think the lots are like 1000-5k oz for silver or something around there being the min. I forgot the exact amount but most people cannot afford it without leverage so that means its a gamble and they have to sell.
But if you can get the silver from there, that is where you can get it cheapest.
Anyway you are correct the train has pretty much left the station for all those that still trust the governments. It is kinda too extreme right now for even the bullish gold/silver players. Short term overbought now long term will still go up. But if you want to take it do not leverage. People could get margin called and all will be for naught. This is the game the elites play on regular people.
Those that are in debt to buy silver on margin will get crushed and then new opp for big players to buy in again. And the game goes on and on.
Remember this quote?
Quotation: "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered...I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."
Beware of leverage.BTW Thomas Jefferson is a prophet yes?
QE makes commodities pretty much a no brainier presently.
Sovereign debt problems in Europe looks like it could translate into an opportunity to short the Euro.
Just a couple of ideas, but do your homework, and decide for yourself.
Investing takes a lot more study and attention than it used to. You have to be ready to move fast as situations change.
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