Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I'm not going to get drawn into the whole Bull vs Bear debate, which IMO ranks right up there with Red State/Blue State, where both sides thumping their positions usually have their craniums firmly embedded deep into their rectums.
Maybe it will happen. Maybe it won't. I don't *yet* see the US collapsing back down into the Stone Age. The folks worrying about that need to take a breather and enjoy a breath of fresh air and take in a good sunset. But conversely, the Bulls who think the DOW is on its way back to 20,000....I think they are equally deluded and probably high on glue.
I'm just kind of taking things one day at a time and doing the best to see myself and my loved ones through this very difficult time. But FWIW....I don't think for a second that this recession is anywhere close to being over.
I'm not going to get drawn into the whole Bull vs Bear debate, which IMO ranks right up there with Red State/Blue State, where both sides thumping their positions usually have their craniums firmly embedded deep into their rectums.
Maybe it will happen. Maybe it won't. I don't *yet* see the US collapsing back down into the Stone Age. The folks worrying about that need to take a breather and enjoy a breath of fresh air and take in a good sunset. But conversely, the Bulls who think the DOW is on its way back to 20,000....I think they are equally deluded and probably high on glue.
I'm just kind of taking things one day at a time and doing the best to see myself and my loved ones through this very difficult time. But FWIW....I don't think for a second that this recession is anywhere close to being over.
Agreed. Honestly I think the truth will lie somewhere in the middle, with the most probable scenerio being a worse version of Japanese style stagflation that will span most of this decade. Jobs will be scarce, working conditions will suck, wages will go down but we'll still have our lights on and water running at the end of the day. America will remain one power in a multipolar world
Agreed. Honestly I think the truth will lie somewhere in the middle, with the most probable scenario being a worse version of Japanese style stagflation that will span most of this decade. Jobs will be scarce, working conditions will suck, wages will go down but we'll still have our lights on and water running at the end of the day. America will remain one power in a multipolar world
I agree (except that Japan has been experiencing stagnant growth and a battle with deflation, not inflation).
On the other hand, it is also worth pointing out (on, say, about a 10% probability) that the western Roman Empire collapsed and subsistence farmers continued working as usual, many of them probably didn't even notice, while local lords took the place of the empire's former tax collectors: in fact, many of these men were one and the same, they just changed clothes, and allegiances.
Yeah, a big deal, but not that big.
In either case, the "golden age" US and European middles classes of the around 1950s-1990s period is an exception in history, not the rule.
On the other hand, it is also worth pointing out (on, say, about a 10% probability) that the western Roman Empire collapsed and subsistence farmers continued working as usual, many of them probably didn't even notice, while local lords took the place of the empire's former tax collectors: in fact, many of these men were one and the same, they just changed clothes, and allegiances.
A couple of years ago I got into Roman history and the end of the Roman empire has always been an interest in me.
The way textbooks in school had previously spelled it out it sounded like a sudden collapse.
Now with the research I have done, it wasn't a collapse at all, just a change in the political landscape and an evolution of society and culture. 476 was accepted as "the end of the Roman empire" but my research shows that people at the time didn't really notice. It's known that the Roman Senate met into the 600's for instance and life went on.
The USA might go through some changes and evolution, but then again it always has.
-We've already had a silent "lost decade". I think it's been papered over more than Japan's officially declared lost decade of the 90's.
The recession of 07/09 has wiped out the job creation from 00-07. I bet we've had no true job creation since the middle 90's....when you consider how we've changed our classifications of work and unemployment since then, the reduction of hours/benefits, increase in part time work, increase in under employment. On top of the explosion in illegal immigrants since the 90's who have driven down wages and competed for jobs that otherwise would have gone to americans. Our "growth" since about 1996 has been dubious, and I think hollow.
-The dow and s&p will eventually reflect japan. The market will just die away. In japan, their mutual funds lost 95% of their assets from the bubble peak. Or some statistic like that. You'll see similar statistics in the US. We've had a bear market, but we haven't had a complete cleansing of the stock and financial markets...yet.
-Although the japanese had a high savings rate to ease their pain in the 90's. Who's going to finance our lost decade? That's why guys like Jim Rogers are so dour on the US. We've already shot most of our bullets. There's nothing to cushion the blow if we really fall.
-In 10-15 years, the lights will be on. But there will be a seismic
cultural shift between those years and the 80's to 00's.
-In 10-15 years, the lights will be on. But there will be a seismic cultural shift between those years and the 80's to 00's.
I agree.
But to put a more precise definition on "seismic", perhaps, I would say that in the US 10-20 years from now the general notions of risk, stability and how to deal with corruption will be less like they have been for the past 60 years or so in North America and northern Europe, and more like they have been in Latin America and southern Europe, and probably also most of Asia (not intimately familiar with the region) for a long time ... perhaps comparable to the "seismic" cultural shift in western Europe before and after the "watershed" 476 AD.
During those times, many Roman generals and other powerful men cooperated with the leaders of the invading barbarians, they even exchanged places from time to time
I suppose the "watershed" event for the US is 11 September 2001.
Think about it.
At any rate, prepare for the "seismic" shift and good luck!
But to put a more precise definition on "seismic", perhaps, I would say that in the US 10-20 years from now the general notions of risk, stability and how to deal with corruption will be less like they have been for the past 60 years or so in North America and northern Europe, and more like they have been in Latin America and southern Europe, and probably also most of Asia (not intimately familiar with the region) for a long time ... perhaps comparable to the "seismic" cultural shift in western Europe before and after the "watershed" 476 AD.
During those times, many Roman generals and other powerful men cooperated with the leaders of the invading barbarians, they even exchanged places from time to time
I suppose the "watershed" event for the US is 11 September 2001.
Think about it.
At any rate, prepare for the "seismic" shift and good luck!
In Jim Rogers books, Investment Biker and Adventure Capitalist, he gave some good historical examples. Investment Biker came out in 92, AC I think in 2000/02.
-In Japan in the 80's, the culture was "yes we can". We can do that for you. Flexible and eager to help. Then when he went back (and the market had collapsed 75%), the culture was "no". They weren't as flexible. And during their lost decade, everyone wanted to work for the govt. That would be a major shift here. Can you imagine most 22 or 24 year olds when they graduate from college, they want to work for the govt?
In 10-15 years, the facade of the MBA, a law degree, they will have faded away. The whole finance era will have faded away.
-Other "seismic shifts", I think culturally. Like music. Compare music in the 80's and 90's to 00's. Or the feel good Julia Roberts movies of the 90's. The culture will get darker and bleaker.
I agree with the corruption issue. Although I think it will take a long time to come close to the levels of South America. The risk issue will look more like a 3rd world country.
In Jim Rogers books, Investment Biker and Adventure Capitalist, he gave some good historical examples. Investment Biker came out in 92, AC I think in 2000/02.
-In Japan in the 80's, the culture was "yes we can". We can do that for you. Flexible and eager to help. Then when he went back (and the market had collapsed 75%), the culture was "no". They weren't as flexible. And during their lost decade, everyone wanted to work for the govt. That would be a major shift here. Can you imagine most 22 or 24 year olds when they graduate from college, they want to work for the govt?
In 10-15 years, the facade of the MBA, a law degree, they will have faded away. The whole finance era will have faded away.
-Other "seismic shifts", I think culturally. Like music. Compare music in the 80's and 90's to 00's. Or the feel good Julia Roberts movies of the 90's. The culture will get darker and bleaker.
I agree with the corruption issue. Although I think it will take a long time to come close to the levels of South America. The risk issue will look more like a 3rd world country.
I was planning on reading Jim Rogers books soon, just because I have an interest in adventure motorcycling and business, but like a lot of pundits a lot of what he preaches isn't always the case from what I have heard from others.
Cultures do change and adapt and we are at the edge of either malaise or greatness. The depression of 1920, the panic of 1908, etc can show what happens when you just let the American people be the best they can be. The great depression shows what happens when government meddles in everything and robs the economy of money.
I think there are a lot of people that think America is over, just because they exist in negativity. One look at the winter olympics shows that isn't the case. The USA has never been the major player at the winter olympics, yet this year has been dominate or a player in many sports we never had a handle on like bobsled or nordic combined. Just shows me that can do spirit is still out there.
Today listening to all the blowhards at that health care conference in Washington DC just showed me the pomposity of those people that act like without their immediate assistance of 2600 pages of legislation we will collapse. I think the American people are better than that.
I like Jim Rogers over other pundits, because he's more realistic, he's a good student of history, and generally he's more grounded in fundamentals (he isn't as ideological as some). Like die hard gold bugs or people that believe in metals. He'll go and talk about lead or the Sri Lankan stock market, or whatever is attractive.
I'm not into motorcycling, but he's got some good stories. In Investment Biker, it wasn't easy to go around the world on a motorcycle then.
His books put the US from 1950 to 2000 as a spec of history. We've been myopic for so long, we can't see any other alternative...but there is another alternative. We've felt part of that in the 2000's.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
