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...and for those who don't believe what I've been saying w/r/t the potential destructive power of capital flight, I have just two words now: watch Argentina.
You can think of those poor dumb bas***ds like the proverbial canary in the coal mine of world economies...and remember on election day that "a little socialism will do ya'!!"
Last edited by Bob from down south; 10-22-2008 at 01:23 AM..
Reason: "I'm George Bush, and I impugned this message"
Bob, does the time you spent living in Chile factor into your apparent disdain for Argentina?
Hey guys, I read on 9Snooze the other day that the number of "help wanted" postings in Colorado in October 2008 were at 18,000+-, down from 37,000+- in October 2007.
Wow, that seems bad. I really miss my life in Boulder and wanna head back to Da Range, but this is daunting news. Boulder's job market was already quite tight before this latest SHTF. A good amount of jobs really, but tons and tons more people looking and applying for jobs there as well. Rents are quite high there and the number of rental units is relatively limited there. Of course residential RE is priced to the moon there.
Now in the last year there have still been people moving to Da Front Range from all over the US, primarily it seems from some of the usual places like Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas, California, et. al.
This seems like a painful recipe. I see some increased signs of chaos and calamity with the latest Denver/Boulder area shootings, wierd news, and apparently an unheard of rash of residential robberies in Boulder.
Pundits have claimed recently that the financial crisis is "starting to hit Main Street". Well, aside from the fact that the less well-off segments of Main Street have been getting pummeled since 1981, do you guys see any evidence of this emerging in Colorado in late 2008?
If you're a 60-something on the brink of retirement witnessing the rapid loss of over a third of your retirement savings, what's happening is not the end of the world, it's the beginning...of another decade in the workforce.
Assuming they don't lay you off because you cost too much.
...Pundits have claimed recently that the financial crisis is "starting to hit Main Street". Well, aside from the fact that the less well-off segments of Main Street have been getting pummeled since 1981, do you guys see any evidence of this emerging in Colorado in late 2008?
I'm seeing interesting things such as house auctions (aka desperation), along with a ton of for sale signs all over my neighboorhood - more than I've ever seen in 11yrs of owning my house. Not sure what the real story behind the scenes is, though.
I'm containing costs and starting to lock everything during the day, even though I've never had a problem. Things could change.
Bob, does the time you spent living in Chile factor into your apparent disdain for Argentina?
Of course living in the region is a factor in my view of the region and events there.
I harbor no disdain for Argentina, but the disordered mess of a socialist government they have there is worthy of much disdain. They are a prime example of the failings of socialism as a political and economic construct, and they are just about to implode economically for the second time in a decade. A lesson we should take into account here in the US and in Colorado.
I just voted (by absentee ballot) today. There are lots of city, county, and state tax-increases on the ballot masked in varied forms. Especially interesting are iniatives 200 and 201 in Colo Springs, which stand to short-stop a sneaky lawyer end-run the city government made by imposing unconstitutional "non tax" taxes, in this case storm water fees. Add that the the absolutely certain increases in federal taxes owing to our out-of-control deficit spending under King George the VV's reign of terror, and the economic realities of socialism start to creep in, as much of one's earnings are siphoned off by government at all levels to pay for any and all worthy group causes.
The City of Colorado Springs, for example, is simply crawling with law enforcement in comparison to anywhere I've ever lived before, yet they make it sound like it'll soon be the Wild West out here without even more of our money.
Since this thread is back on topic slightly..
I got this fact from watching a thing on msnbc..
Tom Brokaw said "1 in 95 households for 2nd quarter of 2008 were in foreclosure for colorado (us average is 1 in 171) Colorado ranks 5th in foreclosures"
All I can say is in my personal experience I see 1-2 empty homes out of say 40 and depending on the area 5 out of 40 but stuff is selling/moving somewhat.. as stuff I've been watching over the last year is apparently most "under contract" I said mostly..
I just got back from one of my periodic multi-hundred mile swings through a good chunk of Colorado. I talked to people "in the know" from probably 30+ counties. Things are not very good. First, while real estate sales prices have not "crashed"--or even declined in some areas, there is generally very little selling at all. Foreclosures are on the rise, and most say it is "the tip of the iceberg." Construction (it's about time) is slowing down significantly, and--in some places--some relatively large projects have had the "plug pulled." The energy areas are still chugging along pretty good, but there is getting to be some nervousness there about the souring national economy causing significant natural gas price declines--for the first time in quite awhile, the active gas drilling rig count in Colorado may be declining, but I haven't been able to personally confirm this with hard data.
A lot of rural counties are very concerned about any downturn in the economy cratering their funding sources over the next 1-3 years (property and sales tax, especially) for local public services. These local governments are actually pretty efficient, so any curtailment of revenue is likely to translate directly into cutbacks in essential public services like road maintenance, snow plowing, law enforcement, emergency medical services, etc. That could make rural Colorado living a whole lot less "fun" or safe starting in a year or so.
I also cruised through some of the areas most affected by the pine beetle--a couple of places that I had not been through in about a year. I was amazed how many more trees--huge tracts of hundreds to thousands of acres are now dead and dying compared with a year ago. Unless we have one hell of a cold and snowy winter that a) is cold enough to kill off a bunch of beetles and b) is wet enough to keep the forest moist through the late spring and early summer next year, I would virtually guarantee a "mega-fire" somewhere the central or northern Colorado mountains next summer--probably in Grand, Summit, or Routt county. If the winter, spring, and/or summer is droughty next year, such a fire might not go out until the snow flies next fall (a la Yellowstone 1988).
There are NO homes undergoing foreclosure in my subdivision of 52 homes in Grand Junction. There are however 3 or 4 homes for sale that have been on the market seemingly forever. To put it mildly, real estate seems very sluggish. According to a recent newspaper article real estate values are holding steady or dropping ever so slightly...on paper. The paper world rarely matches the real world!
Down 5.6% YOY nationwide, and down 4.2% in Colorado.
Pretty clear evidence of demand destruction in energy. And it isn't going to help car sales much either!!
Couple the falling prices of fuel (road tax revenues are a straight percentage of the pump price) and a growing trend of people driving much less, and the funding for road maintenance, much less new construction for more subdivisions we don't need, is seriously on the skids.
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