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Old 06-20-2008, 11:09 PM
 
3,459 posts, read 5,767,257 times
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Fixed link:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...indictment.pdf

 
Old 06-21-2008, 03:03 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 5,260,370 times
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Here's a great one...NRO found an internal Bank of America "discussion document" that predates the Dodd-Shelby mortgage bailout bill due for debate this week in the Senate. The similarites are striking--the wording in the bill looks to have been written by BOA/Countrywide. Comes complete with PR notes on how to sell the idea, like "We believe that any intervention by the federal government will be acceptable only if it is not perceived as a bail-out of the bond market."

The Corner on National Review Online

Page down to the June 20th section, or do text search for "BofA-Scripted Bank Bailout"

Is that what giving Sen Dodd preferred "VIP" loan treatment bought them? Their very own self-written bailout bill? Take the losses incurred in their greed and stupidity and give 'em to the taxpayer? It's one thing to have Dodd take a sweetheart mortgage deal, claiming he didn't know he was getting a way better rate than the next guy. Quite another when he's subsequently caught doing their bidding on the floor of the Senate.

I just wrote both of my senators.

BTW, the discussion doc itself ( BoA Mortgage Plan Discussion Document )is an interesting view from the inside of PonziCorruptiCapitalist HQ. Look at page 20 for their projections of house price depreciation.
 
Old 06-22-2008, 10:29 AM
 
26,143 posts, read 48,800,534 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sterlinggirl View Post
A few days ago, some friends in London told me house prices had already dropped 25% in their neighborhood. That could put a little dent in CO's tourism industry.....
Not sure how to equate a drop in home prices to tourism. Today's Denver Post says tourism is up in Colorado:
Tourism grows in Colorado - The Denver Post

Seems that as the dollar is in such bad shape, people who would normally travel overseas are finding it too expensive, so they stay in the USA and spend their money here. Re-circulating our money in the USA suits me fine. Not only should we see the USA, we should MAKE more things in the USA too, but that's another thread, tain't it.

Last edited by Mike from back east; 06-22-2008 at 11:22 AM.. Reason: Added more.
 
Old 06-22-2008, 06:39 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 29,396,143 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
Not sure how to equate a drop in home prices to tourism. Today's Denver Post says tourism is up in Colorado:
Tourism grows in Colorado - The Denver Post

Seems that as the dollar is in such bad shape, people who would normally travel overseas are finding it too expensive, so they stay in the USA and spend their money here. Re-circulating our money in the USA suits me fine. Not only should we see the USA, we should MAKE more things in the USA too, but that's another thread, tain't it.
I was going to post this separately, but since Mike brought it up, I'll post it here. I just finished a swing through a good chunk of the rural part of Colorado--much of it in some of the tourist areas away from I-70 and I-25. Here's what is REALLY going on there. First, the vehicle traffic is down--WAY down. I even traveled some on the weekend (which I usually avoid to stay out the weekend tourist traffic). I needn't have worried. A lot of normally crowded roads were practically empty. Think $4.00+ fuel won't tank the tourist economy? Think again.

So, what are the tourists doing? Buying some fuel, hitting the supermarkets and fast food joints, the cheap Forest Service campgrounds, the free tourist attractions, AND NOT MUCH ELSE. The business people I talked to said visitor numbers are down probably 15-20% from last year--BUT, dollar gross in any of the businesses other than those mentioned above is often down 50% or more. A lot of those businesses are not going to make enough profit this summer to last out next winter. 2009 will see a brutal economy in much of rural Colorado--you heard it here first.

Real estate? Prices seem to be holding steady in many areas, but there are few sales. There are a lot of soon-to-be-starving real estate agents. Probably a beans-for-dinner winter for them ahead. I heard at least a dozen stories of people with homes for sale in places like Pagosa Springs, Lake City, etc. that have had their places on the market for 2 years-plus now and are now resigned to lowering their prices--several of them are going to lose some pretty big money if and when they can sell. There is a note of desperation in their voices. Another note that I picked up in several locales--property crime and theft is starting to grow into a big problem in several rural counties as the economy gets rougher. One County Sheriff told me that his department could be "overwhelmed" if things get even just a little bit worse economically in his county.

Bottom line: things are not happy out there in the hinterlands. And they certainly are not the happy horse**** that the Chamber of Commerce and realtor-types would like everyone to believe. I didn't solicit any of the comments I received on this trip other than by asking, "So, how are things going these days?" Boy, did I get an earful. I could go on, but you get the picture. And the real **** hasn't even hit the fan yet . . .
 
Old 06-22-2008, 07:08 PM
 
Location: 80904 West siiiiiide!
2,957 posts, read 8,352,221 times
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You do bring up a valid point Jazz, as my Dad builds houses south of Ft.Carson, and his business has dropped 75% from 3 years ago. He's hurting bad.

THat being said, who the hell would buy a house in Lake City? It's a nice place to visit, but good god, how could you live there?
 
Old 06-22-2008, 08:24 PM
 
3,459 posts, read 5,767,257 times
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I put my little house up for sale.

One of the first questions everybody asks is how much it costs to heat. People really are getting worried about energy costs.
 
Old 06-22-2008, 11:32 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 5,260,370 times
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Jazz, thanks for the post, it confirms what my gut tells me has to be happening as the multiple drags on the economy as we know it continue to mount. The convergence I see developing in the spring-summer of 2009 can only be described as the perfect storm in the making. Gas/diesel prices up 100% in a year, natural gas and electricity up nearly 40% in a year, food staple prices climbing at 17% a year, and the federal government calling inflation at what, 4%?

I tried to have a car I have stored in D.C. shipped out to CO...the vibes I was getting from the car haulers were pretty bad...one broker told a friend that he had a line haul driver drop his trailer off (with somebody's cars still aboard), take his tractor and go home last week. He was losing a significant amount of money with every mile he drove. We decided to go get the car ourselves.

I've been watching Colorado Springs real estate like a hawk for almost a year now. The mid and upper end is on life support. There are a number of houses that were completed in 2006-2007 still sitting unsold two years later. Around a quarter of the pending sales show back up on the market a few weeks after going pending...lots of folks are not apparently finding financing in the tighter credit market. It's ugly now, and my projection has not changed--I foresee some seller panic after people find their houses still unsold after the spring-summer season. And panic may not be unwarranted with the s***storm headed our way in mid 2009.

The commercial RE downturn is beginning to get legs now too...malls in particular are under tremendous strain. Just read an interesting article suggesting that credit card limits are likely to be pulled way back...to the tune of $2 trillion...as banks come to grips with how far they've allowed people to overextend themselves in that market space. That's an ugly piece of bad news for consumer spending. That's the trifecta I've been expecting...residential RE, followed by commercial RE, followed by severe auto/credit card contraction.

I was surprised to hear that property crime was already spiralling up in rural areas. It makes sense, but it still was unexpected this early in the devolution.
 
Old 06-23-2008, 06:33 AM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 5,260,370 times
Reputation: 1703
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
Not sure how to equate a drop in home prices to tourism. Today's Denver Post says tourism is up in Colorado:
Tourism grows in Colorado - The Denver Post

Seems that as the dollar is in such bad shape, people who would normally travel overseas are finding it too expensive, so they stay in the USA and spend their money here. Re-circulating our money in the USA suits me fine. Not only should we see the USA, we should MAKE more things in the USA too, but that's another thread, tain't it.
Mike;

If you read that article closely, you'll see that the data the Colorado Tourism Office is working from is 2007 data...the summer of 2007 was, by and large, "normal" (from the warped perspective that burying yourself in debt to pay a visit to Mickey is the norm) until the credit market seize-up in mid Aug 2007.

I think it's far from likely that the 2008 numbers will tell the same story...much, much anecdotal evidence out there already about people pulling back on vacationing due to exploding fuel prices piled on top of credit contraction including reduced or cutoff mortgage equity wealth (MEW) extraction. It's amazing how many people used HELOCs and credit cards to borrow money for vacations during the debt plague.

This practice of using stale year-old data to tell a tale of happy trends is getting really old. The Colorado Springs Gazette did the same thing a few months back on housing numbers, where they reported market trends based on data ending in 2007. It's sorta like reporting on last year's drought while waiting to be rescued from your rooftop during a 500-year flood.

I tend to think Sterlinggirl has a point...the crunch taking form in Europe has to exacerbate the problems in tourism venues as the Europeans (and the rest of the world as well) work through their own recessionary minefield...especially with the increases in travel costs associated with oil prices.
 
Old 06-23-2008, 01:23 PM
 
26,143 posts, read 48,800,534 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
Mike; . . . snip . . . I tend to think Sterlinggirl has a point...the crunch taking form in Europe has to exacerbate the problems in tourism venues as the Europeans (and the rest of the world as well) work through their own recessionary minefield...especially with the increases in travel costs associated with oil prices.
I hear ya, but the paper says Manhattan is crammed with Brits coming over to shop at 40% off, thanks to the cheaper dollar. That same dynamic has to be bringing lots of European tourists here, especially Germans, who love our wide open west and Florida too. It's going to be an interesting year, eh.
 
Old 06-23-2008, 01:51 PM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,841 posts, read 18,949,443 times
Reputation: 9584
On the Grand Junction TV stations there was a recent piece on the influx of foreign tourists visiting the area, though I haven't personally seen them around.

A few weeks ago I had a mini vacation in Ouray at Weisbaden Hot Springs Lodge. The people on one side of our room were from NY and the people on the other side were from Virginia. Apparently they drove across the country becasue I saw cars with NY and VA plates in the parking lot, in addition to a few other cars with eastern license plates. Travelling back to Grand Junction, I encountered more traffic than ever before, but this was on a Tuesday afternoon compared to a weekend afternoon in the past, so it's not a true apples to apples comparison. Lots of traffic however for whatever the reason.
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