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Old 04-01-2010, 08:26 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,628,664 times
Reputation: 5180

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Bubble Meter: Elizabeth Warren: Half of commercial RE mortgages to be underwater

As the media talking heads and criminals in government tell us daily how we are on the path to recovery, the economy continues to deteriorate. This should not be a surprise to anyone due to the fact that no one in government knows anything about economics, yet they continue to make the decisions that we all will have to pay for. Their solution so far has been to throw good money in mass quantities into hopelessly failing programs and to try in vain to manipulate markets which they do not understand. The size of the problem in commercial real estate dwarfs the sub prime catastrophe that sent the economy reeling, yet everyone just keeps going thru their daily routines as if what the corporate owned talking heads were telling us was true. Today we see Ireland is being added to the list of countries in Europe who’s citizens will be paying dearly for the greed of their banksters while the perpetrators of the crimes not only go unpunished, in most cases are profiting from the disaster.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Irish Banks Need $43 Billion in New Capital as "Worst Fears Have Been Surpassed”
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Old 04-01-2010, 10:56 AM
 
Location: Castle Hills
1,133 posts, read 2,420,091 times
Reputation: 611
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Bubble Meter: Elizabeth Warren: Half of commercial RE mortgages to be underwater

As the media talking heads and criminals in government tell us daily how we are on the path to recovery, the economy continues to deteriorate. This should not be a surprise to anyone due to the fact that no one in government knows anything about economics, yet they continue to make the decisions that we all will have to pay for. Their solution so far has been to throw good money in mass quantities into hopelessly failing programs and to try in vain to manipulate markets which they do not understand. The size of the problem in commercial real estate dwarfs the sub prime catastrophe that sent the economy reeling, yet everyone just keeps going thru their daily routines as if what the corporate owned talking heads were telling us was true. Today we see Ireland is being added to the list of countries in Europe who’s citizens will be paying dearly for the greed of their banksters while the perpetrators of the crimes not only go unpunished, in most cases are profiting from the disaster.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Irish Banks Need $43 Billion in New Capital as "Worst Fears Have Been Surpassed”
When it gets bad enough here you will see a revolt in my opinion.
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Old 04-01-2010, 11:15 AM
 
13,673 posts, read 23,847,451 times
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The government will drop money from helicopters (literally) and inflate our currency before they let the above happen.
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Old 04-01-2010, 09:52 PM
 
750 posts, read 1,345,742 times
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This is the next big bubble to bust. It is going to bring down tons of small and mid size banks. It will mostly likely be in the 100's. The Fed will not have the cash on hand to bail these banks out. It will take 3 to 5 years for this to wind down. There is tons of malls retail space and office space no one wants. These deals are failing these outfits have to much debt. The banks have too much bad debt on their books. Thus they can not work anything out for anybody. Block Buster alone has 2500 stores in the US. When they go down it will be like a tidal wave on this market. Next in line will be Rite Aid with 1000's of stores in the US. They have a ton of debt coming due no one. wants.
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Old 04-01-2010, 11:40 PM
 
4,510 posts, read 3,201,922 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wheelsup View Post
The government will drop money from helicopters (literally) and inflate our currency before they let the above happen.
Why would they waste the fuel? They don't even have to waste paper printing currency, just credit an account.
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Old 04-01-2010, 11:45 PM
 
4,510 posts, read 3,201,922 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by collegeguy35 View Post
This is the next big bubble to bust. It is going to bring down tons of small and mid size banks. It will mostly likely be in the 100's. The Fed will not have the cash on hand to bail these banks out. It will take 3 to 5 years for this to wind down. There is tons of malls retail space and office space no one wants. These deals are failing these outfits have to much debt. The banks have too much bad debt on their books. Thus they can not work anything out for anybody. Block Buster alone has 2500 stores in the US. When they go down it will be like a tidal wave on this market. Next in line will be Rite Aid with 1000's of stores in the US. They have a ton of debt coming due no one. wants.
So, having the inside track on this, you are poised to make a killing! How are you planning on playing it?

Or are you just fueling the frenzy?

It will be just like the private real estate bubble. Property values will adjust to accommodate the overhang. Except I don't reside in a Blockbuster or Rite-aid and hold the mortgage.
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Old 04-02-2010, 08:07 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,628,664 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281 View Post
So, having the inside track on this, you are poised to make a killing! How are you planning on playing it?

Or are you just fueling the frenzy?

It will be just like the private real estate bubble. Property values will adjust to accommodate the overhang. Except I don't reside in a Blockbuster or Rite-aid and hold the mortgage.
The only people poised to make a killing from the looming situation are the people who caused it and have already profited from it. Ask yourself who has all the money presently. That would be Goldman Sachs, Citibank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and the large European Banks controlled by the Rothschild’s. Presently even the US government and the FED are having money problems, only the ultra large banks are sitting on tons of cash (much of taxpayers) which will allow them to purchase huge blocks of real estate, smaller banks, businesses, and other assets for pennies on the dollar.
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Old 04-02-2010, 09:40 AM
 
5,409 posts, read 10,335,019 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
The only people poised to make a killing from the looming situation are the people who caused it and have already profited from it. Ask yourself who has all the money presently. That would be Goldman Sachs, Citibank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and the large European Banks controlled by the Rothschild’s. Presently even the US government and the FED are having money problems, only the ultra large banks are sitting on tons of cash (much of taxpayers) which will allow them to purchase huge blocks of real estate, smaller banks, businesses, and other assets for pennies on the dollar.
soooo . . . . reduce and trend towards stopping using their money and they all become worth less on the path to worthless.

Sort of fun game if you think it through.

Once it gets deep enough a Gubermint or three around the world will start seizing the banks, anyway.

That will be funny, too.
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Old 04-02-2010, 01:45 PM
 
750 posts, read 1,345,742 times
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Thanks for the good post guys. The big banks will make a killing. Just because I see what is going on. Dose not mean I can profit from it. I do not have 50m in the bank. Unless somebody wants to loan me some cash.
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Old 04-05-2010, 02:26 AM
 
4,510 posts, read 3,201,922 times
Reputation: 2861
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
The only people poised to make a killing from the looming situation are the people who caused it and have already profited from it. Ask yourself who has all the money presently. That would be Goldman Sachs, Citibank, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and the large European Banks controlled by the Rothschild’s. Presently even the US government and the FED are having money problems, only the ultra large banks are sitting on tons of cash (much of taxpayers) which will allow them to purchase huge blocks of real estate, smaller banks, businesses, and other assets for pennies on the dollar.
Shorting commercial real estate would be one option. Going long GS, C, BoA, WF, etc would be another. If you believe what you posted. And anyone who believes that the economy is getting ready to take another huge hit should be sitting on safe investments ready to swoop in and capitalize on the situation. Buying Citibank at a buck a share 1 year ago would have resulted in a 400% return.

Many wise people have made a fortune taking advantage of turmoil and betting on their beliefs. But, you have to be solvent and for most people that only comes from disciplined investing and careful planning. And that leads to having liquid assets for when opportunity knocks.

You'll have to excuse me if I don't take the point of view that everything is beyond my control and that any effort is futile.
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