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Im sorry..what? Can you give me some documentation for that? ive been seeing multiple articles and studies that suppose a 1% mortality. Ive not seen any numbers as high as youre citing and i live in the NY NJ metro.
The 1% mortality rate I think you may be referring to is the general overall population mortality rate in general. But for those confirmed cases - those that test positive for Covid19 in NY = the fatality rate is 11.6%. Also 90% of those that die from Covid19 in NY have comorbid conditions. In NY 55,372 people so far have had to be hospitalized, and 25,000 now have died.
Here's the link for NY death rate based on a positive diagnosis. If we open up the economy as its being called, and allow everyone to get infected, then at a 11.6% odds of dying if infected, then not so good of odds at all. Don't think opening up schools a good idea, unless there are no cases within the county where you live, and - this part is important - also no one coming in or out of your county. Nearly a dozen out of every 100 lives lost to confirmed Covid19 cases. Now that's bad. But not sure why others don't look at the math, and not sure why so many are arguing for more freedom, and the opening of schools, bars and restaurants. Just wait for the damn vaccine. It's on the way here soon enough.
Last edited by PacificaViews; 07-10-2020 at 02:24 PM..
The 1% mortality rate I think you may be referring to is the general overall population mortality rate in general. But for those confirmed cases - those that test positive for Covid19 in NY = the fatality rate is 11.6%. Also 90% of those that die from Covid19 in NY have comorbid conditions. In NY 55,372 people so far have had to be hospitalized, and 25,000 now have died.
Here's the link for NY death rate based on a positive diagnosis. If we open up the economy as its being called, and allow everyone to get infected, then at a 11.6% odds of dying if infected, then not so good of odds at all. Don't think opening up schools a good idea, unless there are no cases within the county where you live, and - this part is important - also no one coming in or out of your county. Nearly a dozen out of every 100 lives lost to confirmed Covid19 cases. Now that's bad. But not sure why others don't look at the math, and not sure why so many are arguing for more freedom, and the opening of schools, bars and restaurants. Just wait for the damn vaccine. It's on the way here soon enough.
Fortunately for children, this number is extremely biased toward those who are older with comorbidities. A look at early NYC serological data indicated that the IFR for those under 17 is lower than that of influenza--below 0.001%
Unfortunately, for teachers, the IFR for those 30 and older is between 0.1% and 2%, depending on age and other factors. This is 30-60X more deadly than influenza. The CDC also reports that hospitalizations (and thus we can assume severe cases of COVID-19) are very low in children:
Quote:
For children (0-17 years), cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than cumulative influenza hospitalization rates at comparable time points* during recent influenza seasons.
Therefore, I have no qualms about sending my two elementary-school-aged children to school full time. They are unlikely to catch the disease from their peers. If they contract it from their teacher, they are unlikely to show any symptoms at all. Even if they do contract it, and are one of the very few who experience the inflammatory syndrome that has been associated with COVID-19, the syndrome is rarely severe, and is easily treated with common and safe anti-inflammatory steroids. Finally, they are unlikely to pass it on to us. Even if they do, we are younger and healthy, and likely to survive. Also, I am working at an indoor workplace and therefore already exposed to the virus, and have been through the entire pandemic. I am more likely to catch it from coworkers than from my children.
I am more concerned about teachers, especially older teachers. Even though children do not seem to be a major source of transmission, exposure for so long to so many children, plus other staff members, puts teachers at unacceptably high risk! I think it is terribly unfair to demand that they return to an unsafe workplace.
I am more concerned about teachers, especially older teachers. Even though children do not seem to be a major source of transmission, exposure for so long to so many children, plus other staff members, puts teachers at unacceptably high risk! I think it is terribly unfair to demand that they return to an unsafe workplace.
So I say take all learning on-line until the vaccine is here. 8.3% odds of dying here in Michigan if catch this highly contagious virus is just too high. Stop and think - 1000 kids and faculty at local high school. Everyone catches the virus due to confined space. Kids are tough, only 1% die, and most have no symptoms, but carry virus home to extended family or out into community. But a high percentage of the faculty and staff die - up to 8.3% or more. All in the name of needing babysitters, kids out of the house, in-person education, and capitalism. Think we need to readjust and redesign the system for now - one that works but allows for physical distancing, not social distancing. Zoom and newly designed fun interactive on-line platforms is great for this, and will likely grow in popularity even after this virus is behind us.
When did we start talking about children’s lives, or anyone’s lives, like this? I don't understand how people can even begin to use a stat like that as a data point as part of their argument. "Only 1%"? My school district has ~189,000 students. 1% of the would be 1,890. We wouldn't say, "Only 1,890 students will die" and think that's ok, would we? I recently read that .0016 die. Even that would be 302 students. Would we say, "Only 302 students will die"? Of course that's if every student became infected. So lets say 30% of the students get infected. That's 56,700 infections in my school district. 1% dead would be "only" 567. .0016% would even be "only" 91 students. Who would actually think that that's acceptable?
I think it's criminal to send children -- who have no say-so -- into classrooms that we have no clue are safe. No actual data or proof based on past results that these classrooms will be safe for kids to occupy together during this pandemic. Sending them into classrooms now is beyond criminal. It's tragic no matter what the outcome.
My 11 year old granddaughter will be going into 6th grade. She has asthma and it has caused two long hospitalizations over the years. Her first serious attack nearly caused her to die. So yes, I'm very worried about her going back to school. Most kids aren't cognizant of hygiene especially hand washing.
This. Oldest grandson has a habit of putting his fingers in his mouth to investigate/wiggle loose teeth, Hard to get a six-year-old to stop doing this.
DD and son in law have made the decision to have him home schooled this year, plus hire a tutor a few hours a week. Safety is the main worry, but they are also concerned that the disruption and preoccupation of masks, distancing, etc. will disrupt the education process. The remote schooling he had last spring was definitely subpar (for the most part), Even with the quarantine, with the money they're shelling out for his school, they expected better.
They've been in contact with an acredited on line school who have agreed to test him for subject placement...he's entering second grade, but at his present school that's equivalent to third or fourth grade in public school, and he's already doing fifth grade math. They're receptive to bumping him to third grade, and will tailor a program for him so he can continue to be challenged.
The only thing that worries me is the lack of socialization. They live out in a very nice, but very rural and somewhat isolated area with no kids around to play with (other than his brother who is almost 3 years younger). Plus, he hates sports activities, so joining Little League, soccer, etc. wouldn't be for him. The on line school does offer socialization opportunities (field trips, parties, etc.), but who knows if they'll take place during the pandemic.
Teachers salaries need cut and our properties taxes need to go down if they’ll be working from home again. Both of my neighbors are teachers. They both admitted they haven’t done anything since not March since they had to do distance learning.
The one teacher redid their lawn and the other said he only has to be logged in 4 hours a day. This needs to end. These teachers need to get back into these million dollar schools and use what we pay for. If not, get rid of them!!!!
They won't be able to stop the virus from spreading.
Every single school year come Sept someone gets a cold and it spreads through the school like wildfire.
I used to hate the first couple of months of school.
Then you get the winter flu and other mysterious illnesses that sometimes shut down schools for a week.
Yet we can "contain" a novel virus from spreading ?
Who is kidding who here ?
I'm gonna say it folks..."The emperor has no clothes on"
I guess the question would be what countries have successfully restarted their schools with the sort of outbreak the USA is now facing?
My guess is there are zero examples of this. Other countries have waited until the outbreak was in control to restart schools. We are just trying to fit some timetable with little regard to what is going on. Which is pretty much how we have handled the pandemic overall.
If we restart the schools with the numbers near where they are now there is going to be another explosion of new cases all over. Most kids will be fine but the transmission from children to teaches and support staff and then to all the families of the kids, teachers, etc will be exponential. Then schools will be forced to close and this whole experiment will be for naught.
Last edited by Oklazona Bound; 07-11-2020 at 10:42 AM..
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