EP Economy Forcast Sunny & Bright?? (Times Article) (Austin, El Paso: apartment complexes, rent)

[Six Foot Three]

Whats the thoughts of those in EP about this article in todays EP Times that the economy including housing will do well because the Ft.Bliss expansion will create a demand for new housing and services for the troops and their families coming in.

El Paso Times - Economic forecast: Sunny & bright

[lipbalm]

It sure sounds good. But what does all this mean to the average Joe? I think that most people will not see any improvement in their standard of living, when your High School drop out rate is amongst the highest in the nation there is very little you can do to significantly change the current course for the city.

[HIGH!Lonesome]

Those high school drop out rates can be reversable, there will be improvements to the economy and the demographics will change along with this new progress, yes crime will come too, but theres a solution for that too,hire more police and build more jails and prisons.

[malamute]

Originally Posted by 6 FOOT 3

Whats the thoughts of those in EP about this article in todays EP Times that the economy including housing will do well because the Ft.Bliss expansion will create a demand for new housing and services for the troops and their families coming in.

El Paso Times - Economic forecast: Sunny & bright

I'm not overly optimistic -- except that El Paso's isolation may help shield it from some of the problems the rest of the country faces. Plus our mild climate helps when it comes to fuel costs.

The big money pouring in from Washington for Fort Bliss will help boost the economy. Some military will retire here like they've always done. Pawn shops will do pretty well and the places that rent furniture and appliances. But -- if the military gets cut back at some point -- then it all goes.

[Chuco]

I am hoping this all works out for El Paso, yes, getting more military can backfire.. but what if it doesn't and it ends up paying off big time? We will have to wait and see.

[Muhnay]

Originally Posted by 6 FOOT 3

Whats the thoughts of those in EP about this article in todays EP Times that the economy including housing will do well because the Ft.Bliss expansion will create a demand for new housing and services for the troops and their families coming in.

El Paso Times - Economic forecast: Sunny & bright

Well 6 foot 3, knowing a few Realtors, and seeing all the houses they are building and hearing them say that these builders are loosing money because even with the new troops coming in there will not be a new demand. Fort Bliss is building more than enough units on both Biggs and Fort Bliss to cover the majority of families that need it. Plus all the new Barracks to house single soldiers.

I think this is more speculation, than fact on the news paper's part.

Most of these new houses that are being bought, are from current home owners in the city that are leaving vacant houses when they move. These vacant houses are not selling.

On an up note I see 3 new Apartment complexes going up.. but according to a few friends that manage these complexes they have been at 65-80% occupancy. Some lower. Maybe more people are in houses now?

Now as far as services are.. I see a major void. Stores have a hard time now.. what will it be like when 65 thousand new troops get here? I know there are plans for a new commissary and PX on Biggs Field.. but that is only part of the problem.

Also note the article says " El Paso's economy is expected to grow from almost $18 billion in 2006 to $21.6.
Now remember the national minimum wage will also increase and stop on this same timetable.. and I bet with the math it will show the same increase, or play a major part in his numbers.

As for the unemployment.. there are no jobs here now.. so I expect it to rise, as the jobs that can be filled will be, and the excess will be left wanting, where there is none to be had.

Also most of these unnamed business, are looking for the Spanish speakers, and will leave many of these non-Spanish speaking military spouses out of work.. as well as locals who don't speak the language.

I am sure some good will come with it.. but I see more bad, and not for 5-10 years any real good coming from the troop increase.

You have to also consider our city traffic. It is already quite bad.

I hope this news paper is right. But I doubt it.

[malamute]

Originally Posted by Chuco

I am hoping this all works out for El Paso, yes, getting more military can backfire.. but what if it doesn't and it ends up paying off big time? We will have to wait and see.

Maybe it's too many eggs in one basket -- not a well-rounded enough economy. With a falling dollar and too much national debt and growing trade deficits -- depending too heavily on money coming in from Washington DC and Austin is risky.

I wonder what percent of the military retiring here tends to stay here rather than move back to where they were originally from or somewhere else.

There aren't enough good jobs outside of health care and education to keep them staying on when they leave the service if they are still too young to fully retire. Plus -- many of the military aren't Spanish speaking and can forget about most jobs outside of health care. As they finish their service -- many will pack up and go. Some will take good memories of El Paso -- think about it as a place they might retire someday, and some will say good riddance -- that's just the way it is here.

Actually -- I don't see the problem with that. How many of us like El Paso because it isn't too big, too crowded, too much traffic? Who cares about the high salaries in some big city or some cold place when we have constant sunshine here and enough conveniences but a small town feel?

[malamute]

Originally Posted by Muhnay

Well 6 foot 3, knowing a few Realtors, and seeing all the houses they are building and hearing them say that these builders are loosing money because even with the new troops coming in there will not be a new demand. Fort Bliss is building more than enough units on both Biggs and Fort Bliss to cover the majority of families that need it. Plus all the new Barracks to house single soldiers.

I think this is more speculation, than fact on the news paper's part.

Most of these new houses that are being bought, are from current home owners in the city that are leaving vacant houses when they move. These vacant houses are not selling.

The number of empty houses would concern me -- you walk around Central El Paso --- where some old homes with character are -- and an awful lot of them are empty and being left go.

But there's an awful lot of empty newer houses and a lot of for-sale signs all over -- it just doesn't feel right -- because all around the housing developments are still going up.

I just heard of a new military family that moved in last week -- a newly married couple -- he's going to shipped out soon, she hates it here already -- so far from family and friends and she doesn't think there's enough trees. And she misses some lake she used to live near. Maybe that's one reason I'm not counting on all 65,000 staying long.

[Muhnay]

When I was a DA cop on Fort Bliss.. I talked with soldiers all the time. Young, Old, high ranked, low ranked. The majority of them hated El Paso, wanted to go back to Fort Hood, or some other post. Most wanted out of here as fast as they can.. some even said they would not re-up if they had to stay here. If we took everyone I talked too and made that a scale of 1% to 90% with 10% unknown.. I would say 80% wanted out of here.

Yeah Malamute I see the empty houses all over too.. and the builders are starting to stop building. I spoke with a Realtor the other day, and she said the builder went bankrupt building here and wont build no more houses. Another one, said they wont build any more houses till the ones built are sold. I talked to another and they dropped a house from 250K to 190K just to try and move it. This is a 2300 square foot house on the east side... and they are willing to finance anyone to get it sold. Now thats insane.

The weather is not enough for me.. to many dry hot days.. I like rain, I like water.. not any of that here. I also like diversity.. with a high Hispanic population, its not diverse enough for me. I have to say that one thing I loved was the snow we just had.. I like snow.. but not all the time. And that is one of the very cool things about El Paso.. it gets snow every now and then, and when it does its like excitement and magic. But I feel Family is so important that I suffer though El Paso, to be here for them, to support them, even if I have to be unhappy to do so.

I truly believe that El Paso is in for a real hardship.. and I cant leave my mom, aunt, and uncle here to weather it alone.

[malamute]

Well for me the weather is pretty much worth it -- and I like how El Paso is out here kind of isolated. I like the big empty deserts which aren't really deserts at all -- but filled with all kinds of plants and animals. When you get a bit outside of town away from lights and see the desert sky at night. The contrast between the city itself and the valleys, the feeling that El Paso was more like 5 or 6 small towns instead of one big city. And the feeling of wide open spaces.

I don't think it's popular to say it -- but I hope all building does stop -- I liked the smaller town El Paso. Seeing the mountains carved up, the valleys paved over and the deserts torn up to me is what is sad. The arroyos filled in, flattened and built into subdivisions. For me -- what's the point of growth just for the sake of big growth? People aren't nearly as friendly as they were here before -- you see a lot of rudeness now that you never saw before. People cutting others off in traffic, honking at elderly drivers doing their best -- it didn't used to be like that here. Not to say it's completely unfriendly -- but it's not what it once was here.