El Pasos economy booming (Fort Bliss: homes, unemployment, to buy)

[Muhnay]

Chuco.. dont expect it to boom when the Soldiers get here either, expect the opposite.

[Chuco]

I'm curious, Muhnay why do you think so? Not that I'm saying that it will happen for sure..but I just would like to hear why you would think the boom wont happen here.

Most experts on this topic predict that there will be a boom. So I'm wondering why people think that the 70,000 new people (troops and their families) wont help out our economy.

[Muhnay]

Well Let me start with Crime.. as crime will also effect business. While I was a DA cop on Bliss, we had many meetings with experts both on and off post, that all agreed we will see a major jump in crime in El Paso and Fort Bliss. That is fact. Don't think any official on post would admit to it, but it has been discussed and is a worry among the professionals. Fort Bliss is like 200 men short in its police.. El Paso PD is like 500-1000 men short in its force.

Ok now take El Paso as it is.. its current resources, like Gas, Grocery Stores, jobs and so on, now add 70 thousand more people also trying to get those same resources. Your going to have a decline. Now of course when you have 70 thousand more customers you will think your seeing a boom.. but your not really. El Paso is about to have a huge growing pain.. and I for one dont have enough faith in our current city governement to pull us though it. El Paso is a weird place, and I dont think the city its self is ready for such an explosion of people. I am talking mind set. The infrastructure just is not there either.. so we shall see.. I hope I am wrong. Just like with the Farrah project.. I was happy to see COOK make the winning vote take place.. and I hope they improve things like North Park & Alamedia.. El Paso deserves more than she gets.

[Chuco]

Experts currently predict that over the next 5 years, the new surge of troops is expected to create close to 5,000 new civilian jobs and over $1 billion in new money coming into El Paso's economy on an annual basis.. so I'm wondering how is that a bad thing or a decline? New businesses are expected to open up as the troops come in, you can already see them moving to El Paso. About 15 new Hotels are either being built right now or are in the planning stages.. this is a sign of expected growth in our economy.. not because they expect it to slow down.

About your crime statement, I do agree with you there to some extent. But I don't think it will be as bad as it was in the 80's and early 90's but.. really I can't tell the future. I'm sure crime will go up.. just not as much as it was before. We do need to add more police officers everywhere in this town.. so I agree with you there.

[Muhnay]

OK 5000 new jobs.. versus 70 thousand new people. Your looking at a deficit of 65 thousand. That is like an 85% loss my friend. We already have a high unemployment rate and when you add a small percentage of jobs compared to the number of new people looking for the lacking jobs already plus the small number of new jobs.. your looking at a loss.. not a boom.

[southernbliss]

I am sorry to say but I do not see el paso economy getting better in the next few years not saying it will not happen but do not look for ft. bliss to be the one that makes it happen!!! the is no-more money and there will be cuts in the next few years.
I also hear about all these troops coming will that is true but their are a lot moving out also,we leave in 2010 and most troops coming in are here till 2010-2011 and then like I said their are tons of people trying to leave by the end of 2008.
el paso may boom one day but it will not be because of ft.bliss.
my 2cents

[Chuco]

Originally Posted by Muhnay

OK 5000 new jobs.. versus 70 thousand new people. Your looking at a deficit of 65 thousand. That is like an 85% loss my friend. We already have a high unemployment rate and when you add a small percentage of jobs compared to the number of new people looking for the lacking jobs already plus the small number of new jobs.. your looking at a loss.. not a boom.

LOL! That was not counting the 20,000 new jobs (Soldiers, they already have a job) that will be here as well. The other 45,000 of those will be their wives, husbands, and children. Most of the other 45,000 people on there will be children, they will likely be going to schools in this area.

I remember I got this last year from the EP Times:

According to a study done by UTEP researchers, the total economic impact of the Fort Bliss expansion will be an estimated $21.7 billion over the next seven years, and then an additional $3.7 billion annually for many years after that.

And you are saying that we will be losing in this situation???

Please show us a report that explains how we will be looking at losses here. Other than that it looks like its just someone's opinion.

I remember an economic professor that explained to me in college that people love soldiers in their cities and economies, because the majority of them are single, young, and have a paycheck to spend. They pay little to no taxes, have a free roof over their head and are trying to impress the opposite sex.. so their wallets open up a lot. Made sense to me.

[Chuco]

This is just the beginning folks, sure some of the troops will move out.. but many many more will be moving in.

Here is what we are to expect from the troop levels:
Fort Bliss already was slated to grow by about 21,000 soldiers between 2005 and 2011. Under the Army's new plans, the post's population will peak at about 37,000 soldiers by 2013.
This is the tentative schedule for arrival of those units. The years are federal fiscal years, which begin Oct. 1 of the calendar previous year.

2008: About 4,000 4th Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division, soldiers return from Iraq. A heavy brigade combat team, with about 3,800 soldiers, is relocated from Germany to Fort Bliss.

2009: A new infantry brigade combat team, with about 3,500 soldiers, is created at Fort Bliss as part of the Grow the Army Initiative.

2010: A heavy brigade combat team, with about 3,800 soldiers is relocated from Germany to Fort Bliss.

2011: A new infantry brigade combat team, with about 3,500 soldiers, is created at Fort Bliss under the Grow the Army Initiative.

2012: A heavy brigade combat team, with about 3,800 soldiers is relocated from Germany to Fort Bliss.

2013: A heavy brigade combat team, with about 3,800 soldiers, is relocated from Germany to White Sands Missile Range.

[Chuco]

Originally Posted by southernbliss

I am sorry to say but I do not see el paso economy getting better in the next few years not saying it will not happen but do not look for ft. bliss to be the one that makes it happen!!! the is no-more money and there will be cuts in the next few years.
I also hear about all these troops coming will that is true but their are a lot moving out also,we leave in 2010 and most troops coming in are here till 2010-2011 and then like I said their are tons of people trying to leave by the end of 2008.
el paso may boom one day but it will not be because of ft.bliss.
my 2cents

The smaller forts around the country are the ones that need to be worried about closing down or losing troops. The Army has already made a commitment to Ft. Bliss and the US Congress and Senate has already approved the money and troops coming to El Paso (and this was a Democratic ruled congress and Senate.)

The $4 billion expansion of Ft. Bliss is real folks, they are not playing around here.

Most of our enemies these days come from natural environments that resemble El Paso's natural enviroment and the U.S. Southwest, so the training that goes on down here is invaluable to the army. The main reason why Ft. Bliss won out on the last BRAC movements was because of our location: desert.

[HookTheBrotherUp]

Southernbliss and Muhnay are on to something here, and I think some of the predictions are somewhat flawed in that all reports I have seen mention additional troops and their families as part of the equation. Nothing inherently wrong with this, but facts are left out.

First look at the status quo; if you have 1000 troops, and you bring in an additional 1000 troops, you can calculate based on a troop count of 2000, however, that does not take into consideration the troops, and their employed spouses who will end their tour, and leave, or retire and leave. That's one dynamic that needs to be taken into account.

Secondly, El Paso does not offer great paying jobs as the norm, and the unemployment in El Paso is one of the highest in the state. Many of the new troops will have spouses who are currently employed. When these spouses come to El Paso and cannot find employment, that will add to the unemployment in El Paso.

The workforce is influenced by a supply and demand dynamic. When you have too many people seeking employment, that gives employers the benefit of lowering pay, afterall, if one person complains that the pay is too low, the employer will have tens of people waiting to take his, or her place.

By the same dynamic, higher demand means higher prices. People who live on a low fixed income will see the price of staples increase. The housing market will be affected, home values will go up, therefore, taxes will go up.

Also consider what happens to your taxes. More families mean more resources for schools. How do you pay for those resources? Taxes. Also, more homes require water, electricity and sewage, aka, infrastructure. How do you pay for it? Taxes. Water is already scarce in the area, expect rates to go up as well.

The good times are not going to happen because people come to El Paso and create a boom for business. What needs to happen is business needs to create a boom for citizens. If you have 10 stores, and increase the population, the store wins because there is more people to sell to, and since the competition has not increased, business can afford to raise prices. So you need more business to compete, and keep prices low. El Paso's high tax rate is not friendly for small businesses.

Then what happens when you build up, and then the rug is pulled out? If any of you are familiar with the bases in Germany, you know what I am talking about when I say you need to see what happened in Germany when the US sized down. The economies of those cities were adversly affected, hundreds of thousands lost their jobs. The US military is a great producer of civilian jobs, but politics can change that overnight. I alluded to this in an earlier post.

And as far as those new troops spending their money, do not be naive that they will flock to the local stores to buy everything. One of the benefits of the military is the PX/Commisary, no sales tax! Of course, troops and their families will still go for variety and selection off base, but I think lots of troops will take advantage of groceries on base.

Do I think there will be a boom? Yes. There has to be, as a result of the new construction, services, etc. The problem is a boom is just that, a boom. it has a start and and end, and just like a boom from a shotgun, it is short. Short in this case spans years, but it won't last forever. Take the amount of wealth a boom creates, then take one third of that figure, that is what you will realize and can count on through time, anything else is icing on the cake. You have to look at the whole picture on this boom.