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Old 09-18-2010, 03:00 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
35,968 posts, read 36,024,839 times
Reputation: 55612

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Back in April, it was thought that if Pataki wanted to enter the race, he could beat Gillibrand.

"She now describes her self as having been a "public interest lawyer" in the 1990s. In fact, she represented Philip Morris -- assisting its CEO in covering up evidence that he knew of tobacco's addictive properties and that it caused cancer. For years, she hid that role from her constituents. Then, when The New York Times printed the facts, she claimed that she had no choice but to represent tobacco since she was only an associate at her firm."

So why try to hide it?

"In 1999, she became counsel to Housing and Urban Development Secretary Andrew Cuomo. Her job was to promote "new products" for the agency -- subprime mortgages for people who couldn't afford them. But once the mortgage meltdown began, she hit the "delete" key again -- expunging the item from her resume. She also faces the problem that she profited from the crisis."

Read more here:

Still beatable - NYPOST.com


Can Joseph DioGuardi beat her? She's got a healthy lead according to Quinnipiac but if she was shaky paired against Pataki, didn't NY seem like a big enough prize to Republicans to go all out here:

"New York State voters approve 46 - 27 percent of the job Sen. Gillibrand is doing and give her a 38 - 21 percent favorability rating, with 39 percent who haven't heard enough about her to form an opinion." (43 - 28 percent Gillibrand over Joseph DioGuardi)

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1494
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Old 09-18-2010, 03:06 PM
 
26,684 posts, read 26,333,024 times
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This is probably a boring answer: Yes, she can be beaten. Is it likely? No, not even close.
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Old 09-21-2010, 09:50 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
35,968 posts, read 36,024,839 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnUnidentifiedMale View Post
This is probably a boring answer: Yes, she can be beaten. Is it likely? No, not even close.
I'm just disappointed that the GOP hasn't tried harder in this big state.
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Old 09-21-2010, 10:10 AM
 
3,553 posts, read 7,217,652 times
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LauraC (disingenously) wrote;
Quote:
I'm just disappointed that the GOP hasn't tried harder in this big state.
Define "tried harder". Does it mean put forth a more moderate candiate? If so, it's their own fault, anyone "moderate" enough to win has been so pilloried as a RINO that he's taken his marbles and gone home.

Is is "dump in enough money to overwhelm the airwaves"? If they're not doing that it's because the money people; the RSCC and Rove's 'billionaire boy's club" are smart enough to know that doing that means taking from other, more promising races.

So, what exactly do you mean by "try harder"?
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Old 09-21-2010, 09:29 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,313 posts, read 41,448,636 times
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The latest poll;

RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - New York Senate Special Election - DioGuardi vs. Gillibrand

Excellent.
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Old 09-21-2010, 11:44 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,858 posts, read 16,669,790 times
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Rasmussen's primary bounce. She will win. It will be the closest of the main three (Gov and the two Senate races), but she will win easily.
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Old 09-22-2010, 10:32 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,313 posts, read 41,448,636 times
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Another poll;

wgrz.com | Buffalo, NY | Poll Shows NY Governors Race Tighter Between Cuomo And Paladino

Quote:
In the Special Election to fill the final 2 years of Hillary Rodham Clinton's term, incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand and former Congressman Republican Joe DioGuardi today finish effectively even, with Gillibrand's nominal 1-point lead being within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error.

Gillibrand leads in the 5 boroughs of NYC but trails elsewhere.
Whoa!
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Old 09-23-2010, 12:34 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,858 posts, read 16,669,790 times
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UBER UBER Republican sample.
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Old 09-23-2010, 01:26 AM
 
5,721 posts, read 5,824,781 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
UBER UBER Republican sample.
Yeah this. I live in Albany which is pretty Democratic (we had a Democratic machine until *1982* for God's sake) but I tuned in to the local news the other day and it had Palladino polling over Cuomo 85%-15%.

Like, only old white angry people watch the local news anymore, clearly. Because Palladino beating Cuomo 85-15 isn't gonna happen anywhere in the state, let alone Albany.

THAT said, to respond to the OP, Gillibrand should be in more danger than she's actually in. I expect her to get elected (technically not re-elected since she wasn't elected) handily, though she's not particularly popular at all. It's an oddity for sure.
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Old 09-23-2010, 01:54 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,858 posts, read 16,669,790 times
Reputation: 4315
Quote:
Originally Posted by juppiter View Post
Yeah this. I live in Albany which is pretty Democratic (we had a Democratic machine until *1982* for God's sake) but I tuned in to the local news the other day and it had Palladino polling over Cuomo 85%-15%.

Like, only old white angry people watch the local news anymore, clearly. Because Palladino beating Cuomo 85-15 isn't gonna happen anywhere in the state, let alone Albany.

THAT said, to respond to the OP, Gillibrand should be in more danger than she's actually in. I expect her to get elected (technically not re-elected since she wasn't elected) handily, though she's not particularly popular at all. It's an oddity for sure.

Are Republicans more likely to turn out than Democrats? Most likely, and the advantage the Dems have on election day is unlikely to match the 25 point registration advantage (which was pretty much the advantage they had in the 08 electorate) However, it sure as hell is not going to be anywhere even remotely close to just nine points either. Likely somewhere in between, 17 or 18 point range.
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