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There are 14 races for governor in 2011/2012. Democrats currently hold 9 and Republicans hold 5 of the 14. Do you think the governor races will impact the presidential races in those states? How? Which governorships are in danger of going to the other party, in your opinion? The 14 states are:
New Hampshire (D)
Delaware (D)
Vermont (D)
West Virginia (D)
Missouri (D)
North Carolina (D)
Indiana (R)
North Dakota (R)
Montana (D)
Washington (D)
Louisiana (R)
Mississippi (R)
Utah (R)
Kentucky (D)
I am sure, in some states it will make a difference, whether we want to say the Gov race will affect the Presidentual race or visa versa. In a few others they will be unrelated. Mazzu and Ky particularly may go with the Pres tide. Some will stay as they are, like WA, LA and Utah, the rest, is anyone's guess at this time.
I think the ones that are in most jeopardy of switching party would be NC, NH, and MT. In NC and NH, this could potentially help the Republican Presidential Candidate. In fact, I anticipate (barring a terrible R presidential candidate) that NC will very likely go Republican in 2012 and NH likely will too. MT - I think it will get an R governor and also maintain its R for the 2012 electoral college vote.
I am not sure if a win for an R in Indiana will be enough, but IN could also go Republican this election cycle too.
New Hampshire (D)- Stays D
Delaware (D)- Stays D
Vermont (D)- Stays D
West Virginia (D)- Stays D, New governor is popular, Republican opponent is not
Indiana (R)- Stays R, Evan Bayh isn't running
Washington (D)- Stays D, The GOP can come close, but can't break the Democrat hold of the Governorship... besides, Gregoire is gone
Louisiana (R)- Stays R, Mitch Landrieu isn't running (he'll probably be governor after Bobby though)
Mississippi (R)- Stays R, Mississippi doesn't have a strong Democrat
Utah (R)- Stays R, It's Utah
Kentucky (D)- Stays D, Beshear is Popular and it is a 2011 election
Others not so much:
Missouri- Jay Nixon is enjoying pretty favorable approval ratings for now, but in such a swing state with wild swings, anything is possible.
North Carolina- Bev Perdue is pretty unpopular, but her approval ratings are on the up. Combine that with a state that is still swinging towards Obama in polls, and her potential in 2012 for Governor is pretty split.
Montana- Huge toss-up. Schweitzer was extremely popular, and the state has a history of electing Democrats on the state level... and in general, doing the opposite of what it does federally.
North Dakota is too soon to tell. The Governor has only been there a short while, and he has had to deal with massive problems this year. We'll see if he'll be able to steer North Dakota through this year's disasters fairly.
New Hampshire (D)- Stays D
Delaware (D)- Stays D
Vermont (D)- Stays D
West Virginia (D)- Stays D, New governor is popular, Republican opponent is not
Indiana (R)- Stays R, Evan Bayh isn't running
Washington (D)- Stays D, The GOP can come close, but can't break the Democrat hold of the Governorship... besides, Gregoire is gone
Louisiana (R)- Stays R, Mitch Landrieu isn't running (he'll probably be governor after Bobby though)
Mississippi (R)- Stays R, Mississippi doesn't have a strong Democrat
Utah (R)- Stays R, It's Utah
Kentucky (D)- Stays D, Beshear is Popular and it is a 2011 election
Others not so much:
Missouri- Jay Nixon is enjoying pretty favorable approval ratings for now, but in such a swing state with wild swings, anything is possible.
North Carolina- Bev Perdue is pretty unpopular, but her approval ratings are on the up. Combine that with a state that is still swinging towards Obama in polls, and her potential in 2012 for Governor is pretty split.
Montana- Huge toss-up. Schweitzer was extremely popular, and the state has a history of electing Democrats on the state level... and in general, doing the opposite of what it does federally.
North Dakota is too soon to tell. The Governor has only been there a short while, and he has had to deal with massive problems this year. We'll see if he'll be able to steer North Dakota through this year's disasters fairly.
I agree with you pretty much except I am not so sure about KY.
I agree with you pretty much except I am not so sure about KY.
It is a 2011 election, not a 2012 election, and Beshear is EXTREMELY popular. He is a moderate-conservative Democrat who has worked fairly well with the State Legislature with only a few bumps.
I work in Louisville and have been across KY a few times over the past few months. The support for Beshear is strong... and the bumper stickers are everywhere.
It is a 2011 election, not a 2012 election, and Beshear is EXTREMELY popular. He is a moderate-conservative Democrat who has worked fairly well with the State Legislature with only a few bumps.
I work in Louisville and have been across KY a few times over the past few months. The support for Beshear is strong... and the bumper stickers are everywhere.
I realize it is 2011, just like those states that eleict the year after the PRes elections. I wonder why? Well we know why, because their government is set up that way, but I wonder why that is? I am sure, working there you know more than I do, I am just not sure it will be a shoe in for him.
I think the ones that are in most jeopardy of switching party would be NC, NH, and MT. In NC and NH, this could potentially help the Republican Presidential Candidate. In fact, I anticipate (barring a terrible R presidential candidate) that NC will very likely go Republican in 2012 and NH likely will too. MT - I think it will get an R governor and also maintain its R for the 2012 electoral college vote.
I am not sure if a win for an R in Indiana will be enough, but IN could also go Republican this election cycle too.
What if the primary winner in the state is not the eventual presidential nominee? Do you think that would impact the Governor race?
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