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Old 11-03-2011, 08:49 PM
 
8,754 posts, read 10,112,087 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Casper in Dallas View Post
Just an FYI, win a state and you get ALL the congressional congress votes for that state, only a few can go against that formula and it very are for that to happen. Dems will vote as they always have and Repubs will do the same, Independents will vote for the best person running from either Party which in this case (Romney vs Obama) Obama wins Four More Years.
New York is one of the bluest states on the map, if not the bluest. Republicans don't expect to carry it. The last time it went red was 1984.
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Old 11-03-2011, 08:52 PM
 
Location: #
9,598 posts, read 16,492,716 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
It's impressive that Romney has 35% in New York. I am sure nobody expected that. If Obama can only get 59% in New York of all places, he is really in trouble.
I disagree. Upstate New York is quite conservative.
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Old 11-03-2011, 09:35 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crbcrbrgv View Post
I disagree. Upstate New York is quite conservative.

So is much of Long Island, but the population is concentrated in New York City. The facts speak for themselves, look at their historical electorate voting patterns.
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Old 11-03-2011, 09:55 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,665 posts, read 19,885,062 times
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Correct, dixiegirl7, NY will vote for the Democrat almost all the time, which is the reason GOP do not even bother campaigning much there. Upstate has no electoral votes of its own!
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Old 11-03-2011, 09:58 PM
 
Location: Out in the Badlands
10,420 posts, read 10,766,248 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheFix View Post
But....but....but....this can't be right...I thought the flip-flopping Mormon was supposed to make the Northeast competitive!?!?!? LOL! These are McCain numbers.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-cont...d%20Tables.pdf
oops thought I read Marxist
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Old 11-03-2011, 10:07 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,096 posts, read 19,296,640 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
It's impressive that Romney has 35% in New York. I am sure nobody expected that. If Obama can only get 59% in New York of all places, he is really in trouble.
Obama's margin over Romney is similar to his margin over McCain in 08, 24 to 26.

NY was 19 points more Democratic than the nation in 08, so if you are going to attempt to make the argument that NY polls show Obama is in trouble then well it might make sense to do so in a poll that shows his current NY margin less than the difference between the nation and NY in 08. In other words you could attempt to make that argument in a 15 point poll, it makes no sense in a 24 point poll considering 2008.

With that being said, Romney clearly does better than Cain down 31 and Perry down 35, but considering the 08 results a 24 point margin in NY is fairly close to that.
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Old 11-03-2011, 10:10 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,096 posts, read 19,296,640 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
So is much of Long Island, but the population is concentrated in New York City. The facts speak for themselves, look at their historical electorate voting patterns.
NYC has always been heavily Democratic, but NY as a whole use to be a Dem leaning state rather than Dem heavy because of the GOP suburbs made it difficult but winnable for the GOP. However, as the GOP has morphed further and further right, jumped off the deep end into Evangelicalism, the suburbs pretty much flipped and now lean Democratic. The last time the GOP won LI on the Presidential level was 1988.
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Old 11-03-2011, 10:14 PM
 
26,776 posts, read 15,016,453 times
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I wonder what the numbers would be of Obama vs Obama inside of a DNC Meeting?
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Old 11-03-2011, 10:25 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,665 posts, read 19,885,062 times
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Smash255, With corps like Kodak cutbacks decimating upstate NY, their influence wained, hence the Dem margins in NY are now insurmountable in national elections. the electoral votes are down from 20 years ago, and it is not due to NYC. Its due to upstate de-population and population stagnation.
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Old 11-03-2011, 10:57 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,096 posts, read 19,296,640 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
Smash255, With corps like Kodak cutbacks decimating upstate NY, their influence wained, hence the Dem margins in NY are now insurmountable in national elections. the electoral votes are down from 20 years ago, and it is not due to NYC. Its due to upstate de-population and population stagnation.
I'm not saying the change from lean to solid Dem is due to NYC, but rather the suburbs. Long Island and Westchester use to be solidly GOP. The rural areas of upstate were always more conservative, but the cities such as Buffalo which has also lost population have been Democratic.

Well educated middle to upper middle class suburban voters use to be solidly Republican. Once the GOP started flew off the deep end with the far right they started to lose these voters. From 1916 to 1988 the GOP won Long Island and Westchester on the Presidential level every election with the exception of LBJ in 1964. Haven't won since.
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