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I'm sure the "I love Ron Paul" crowd will all say that Paul will win 1st.
I dont think romney will win. Because its a caucus, i think it benefits those candidates that have a more passionate support base. So for that reason, I'd say Paul wins, while santurom and romney battle for second.
I dont think romney will win. Because its a caucus, i think it benefits those candidates that have a more passionate support base. So for that reason, I'd say Paul wins, while santurom and romney battle for second.
Paul and his followers have been saturating the internet, but the reality is that Iowa is a very purple state with moderate political views overall and a large retiree base on Social Security and Medicare that are resistant to change. Romney will get the fiscally conservative / socially liberal segment of the population in Eastern Iowa, as well as the white collar insurance/banking segment of the population in Des Moines. Santorum will get the socially conservative western half of the state. Paul has some fervent supporters and is picking up some disaffected Democrats and Independents along the way that are drawn to his foreign policy stance, but I don't see him taking first among the seniors who typically are more motivated to vote than other segments of Iowa's population.
Paul has the organization to pull off a very big upset in a caucus style of patriotism.
No one else compares to the organization and commitment, Dr. Paul has.
Paul and his followers have been saturating the internet, but the reality is that Iowa is a very purple state with moderate political views overall and a large retiree base on Social Security and Medicare that are resistant to change. Romney will get the fiscally conservative / socially liberal segment of the population in Eastern Iowa, as well as the white collar insurance/banking segment of the population in Des Moines. Santorum will get the socially conservative western half of the state. Paul has some fervent supporters and is picking up some disaffected Democrats and Independents along the way that are drawn to his foreign policy stance, but I don't see him taking first among the seniors who typically are more motivated to vote than other segments of Iowa's population.
Iowa tends to be moderate overall, but the GOP base of the party is very conservative, especially in the western portion of the state (hence someone like Steve King being able to get elected).
Romney will win in the eastern portion of the state, through Paul will do quite well with the handful of Republicans that do exist in and around Iowa City. Santroum will win Steve King country.
I expect turnout in the western portion of the state to be more than the eastern portion of the state (simply because you have many more Republicans in that part of the state).
I would say Santorum will win, with Romney edging Paul at for 2nd. Overall it will be pretty tight at the top, I will be surprised if more than 5 or 6 points separate the top 3, and wouldn't be surprised if only two or three points separate the top 3.
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