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The map shows exactly what I expected when I saw the percentages: Santorum won the usual 25% GOP hard-core evangelicals who always vote rigidly for whomever invokes God's name most often. No surprise here and no real insights can be taken from this, it's SSDD.
Map shows that rural, thinly populated areas of Iowa went for Santorum, this year's evango-fascist, white, gun nutter, wack-job candidate. He might win the GOP nomination with that bunch, but he'll lose a national election with that demographic, as he has nothing else to offer. America wants to elect a President, not a Pope. He'll likely not win the GOP nomination either.
Keep in mind that this was the Iowa caucus, where a collection of 121,000 mostly extremists voted, out of Iowa's three million people, or just 4% of the population. That tiny turnout allows wack-job candidates to make an initial splash before REAL primaries sort out eventual losers like Santorum. Iowa's "straw poll" and "caucus" processes are at best a cartoonish show and if I had my way they'd be shut down in favor of real balloting, either by mail or down at the local school house....
I believe you're a bit off on your analysis. The EV vote was split:
[LEFT]
Quote:
[LEFT]Santorum garnered 34% of evangelical caucus-goers, according to entrance polls, the libertarian Ron Paul garnered 18%, while Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry each took 14% of that vote. Michele Bachmann won 6% of evangelical caucus-goers and Jon Huntsman won 1%.[/LEFT]
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Originally Posted by FargoBison
Which states can Ron Paul win? Iowa was his best shot...third place isn't going to generate much momentum.
Iowa was not his best shot. Ron Paul's best chances are those states that have active young people and a large amount of Independents. You watch out for places like Oregon, Washington and even California. Remember, not every state is a winner-take-all with the electoral votes.
Ron Paul cannot win a closed Republican primary. Period. End of story. He will likely pull 15-20% or so in NH because of independents, but he has no chance in SC and probably not even FL.
I'll forward this post to him with along w/my condolences.
Which states can Ron Paul win? Iowa was his best shot...third place isn't going to generate much momentum.
Paul appeals most to younger voters, so I think he'd do the best in the states with lower median ages. Unfortunately for him the first four states are blue (hair) states; by the time he gets to Nevada his momentum will likely be lost.
Starting in Iowa probably hurt him more than the other candidates, partly because we're an "old" state where he probably has fewer supporters (outside of Fairfield, anyway), and partly because we use a caucus rather than a primary which makes it inconvenient for a lot of working people and people with children to get out and support their candidate. The fact that he did as well as he did says a lot for his appeal.
I think Romney will win NH in a walk. I wouldn't count Paul out yet, though. He's tenancious, and if he can ride out the storm until a couple of others drop out he will likely pick up some of their supporters who won't want to back the "establishment" candidate.
Paul attracts a lot of younger voters so he would likely fare very well in states with a lower median ager, but unfortunately for him most of the the "younger" states don't hold their primaries until after Super Tuesday.
and some of those states even later, plus some will allow open voting, others require registration way before the primaries. The states he has the best shot at don't hold primaries as early as the states with the older population. This is going to hurt him. As for who won and lost. If anyone can actually say, Paul did not lose I bet I can find some oceanfront property in NM to sell them? Of course he lost, he ran a good race, he did much better than 4 years ago, which was expected, but coming in third is losing. Especially when many thought he would win...Nita
Iowa was not his best shot. Ron Paul's best chances are those states that have active young people and a large amount of Independents. You watch out for places like Oregon, Washington and even California. Remember, not every state is a winner-take-all with the electoral votes.
With the vote so split up it was a great shot for Paul, this was his chance to make his mark and get a win. Iowa is not a strong republican state, it has a some big college towns and a rather open caucus.
Paul needed to win for momentum, the only state you mentioned that happens before Super Tuesday is Washington. Cali and Oregon are very late in the process and Oregon has a closed primary.
The sad truth is that most of the people who hate freedom and peace could be dying from starvation in FEMA camps, and they would still defend their politicians policies and actions in Washington. Their own children will starve to death in front of them, and they will be repeating, "Paul is crazy" over and over again as they sit and waste away. The brainwashing by the media has absolutely been effective, and now we will most likely have to wait for the complete collapse of the united states of America, and only then will we likely be able to start over and get rid of the elitist robots and their power. Just Like Paul predicts in this 2010 speech at Mesis where he prophecies/predicts the coming American collapse ...
Last edited by Ironmaw1776; 01-04-2012 at 01:44 PM..
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