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State polls matter more than national ones at this stage.
Obama.....at 50% or above in just 10 states, which happen to be ALL TRUE BLUE.
Again those are not Obama vs Republican polls. So pretending they are Obama vs Republican polls not a wise use of the information. The clearest example of how that logic is wrong would involve a creating a similar map based on Romney favorability. Romney has even lower favorability ratings then Obama so if you created a map based on Romney favorability it would be pretty solid blue and just as silly as this one.
Though if y'all want to delude yourselves that is fine.
The collective hissy fit they are throwing is hilarious. Just wait until he actually loses in ten short months.
I wouldn't be surprised if Obama wins. At this point I think it's going to be a very close race and I could easily see Romney winning. I'm not a big fan of making predictions, but when people do make them, I prefer if they use hard analysis and not twisted logic. The article smacks of anti-intellectualism and insults it's readers intelligence. If you want to make predictions based on polls that will be almost 2 years old at the time of election, go ahead, just don't expect me to fall for it. You'd have to be pretty partisan or gullible to buy that garbage.
I don't get the whole business of blasting Dixiegirl for daring to post an article and I think it's absolutely hilarious that GALLUP is a "conservative biased poll". If anything, Gallup leans slightly left.
It is interesting to contemplate. If a generic Republican does this well against Obama then the only real question is; Can the Republican party and all candidates can unite behind one nominee? If the GOP can really unite behind the eventual nominee and that nominee is moderate enough (aka electable enough) to draw Independents and Democrats who are upset with Obama, then they can win quite handily.
Two problems I'm seeing.
1.) Newt Gingrich was willing to let the government shut down if he could get his way back in the 90's. Does anyone really believe he'll put the party before himself? I seriously doubt it.
2.) Ron Paul has repeatedly expressed zero interest in running as a third party candidate, but he is also very unlikely to support anyone else. In this case, it's not ego, but because his values are so vastly different than ever other candidate that endorsing any of them wouldn't make much sense.
If Newt is the nominee, Obama wins by a landslide. If Ron Paul is the candidate, then you don't have to worry about the loss of his supporters. This would be highly amusing because the panicked sudden reversals of opinions at Fox News would be hilarious to watch. Possible that the news media's mischaracterization of just about everything Ron Paul stands for thus far would doom him to lose the general election to Obama. Frustrating but probably accurate. If Mitt Romney is the candidate, there's a lot of work to do to unite the party and up his PR game a bit. Ultimately, that is the GOP's best shot at winning the GE. We'll see how it plays out.
I don't get the whole business of blasting Dixiegirl for daring to post an article and I think it's absolutely hilarious that GALLUP is a "conservative biased poll". If anything, Gallup leans slightly left.
Who called Gallup conservative?? The only one who is being blasted is the blogger of the article. He is either a moron who doesn't understand that 1 year old polls can't predict elections, or a hyper partisan dishonest lackey who manipulates polls and his audience.
I don't get the whole business of blasting Dixiegirl for daring to post an article and I think it's absolutely hilarious that GALLUP is a "conservative biased poll". If anything, Gallup leans slightly left.
It is interesting to contemplate. If a generic Republican does this well against Obama then the only real question is; Can the Republican party and all candidates can unite behind one nominee? If the GOP can really unite behind the eventual nominee and that nominee is moderate enough (aka electable enough) to draw Independents and Democrats who are upset with Obama, then they can win quite handily.
Two problems I'm seeing.
1.) Newt Gingrich was willing to let the government shut down if he could get his way back in the 90's. Does anyone really believe he'll put the party before himself? I seriously doubt it.
2.) Ron Paul has repeatedly expressed zero interest in running as a third party candidate, but he is also very unlikely to support anyone else. In this case, it's not ego, but because his values are so vastly different than ever other candidate that endorsing any of them wouldn't make much sense.
If Newt is the nominee, Obama wins by a landslide. If Ron Paul is the candidate, then you don't have to worry about the loss of his supporters. This would be highly amusing because the panicked sudden reversals of opinions at Fox News would be hilarious to watch. Possible that the news media's mischaracterization of just about everything Ron Paul stands for thus far would doom him to lose the general election to Obama. Frustrating but probably accurate. If Mitt Romney is the candidate, there's a lot of work to do to unite the party and up his PR game a bit. Ultimately, that is the GOP's best shot at winning the GE. We'll see how it plays out.
Except your premise is entirely wrong. That map is not a generic Republican against Obama. It is not any Republican against Obama. In fact it is based on a complation of polls where no one ever asked "would you vote for Obama, or genaric Republican/Insert R candidate." That is why I call it epic fail journalism.
This basically takes Obama's old approval numbers and assumes everyone who disapproves of Obama will vote Republican and everyone who approves of Obama will vote D. This is a ridiculous premise since there are people who disapprove of Obama because they think he is too conservative, but will vote for him anyway, there are people who disapprove of Obama, but are libertarians and will vote libertarian, there are people who disapprove of Obama, but think all candidates are worthless and will not vote. Then there are people who approve of Obama, but will not vote for him.
That is why you have to be deluded to look at what those polls are saying and put them in a D vs R match up.
Gallup polls from 2009 show Obama having high approval ratings. I guess Obama is going to win in a landslide.
After three years of obama rule, those 2009 polls/approval ratings are long gone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Skinny Puppy
I wouldn't be surprised if Obama wins. At this point I think it's going to be a very close race and I could easily see Romney winning. I'm not a big fan of making predictions, but when people do make them, I prefer if they use hard analysis and not twisted logic. The article smacks of anti-intellectualism and insults it's readers intelligence. If you want to make predictions based on polls that will be almost 2 years old at the time of election, go ahead, just don't expect me to fall for it. You'd have to be pretty partisan or gullible to buy that garbage.
Obama Approval Above 50% in 10 States and D.C. in 2011
Quote:
These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking data from 2011, which include interviews with just under 180,000 U.S. residents and no fewer than 500 residents in any state (the sample for the District of Columbia was 356). State samples are weighted so they are demographically representative of the population of each state. Full data for each state appear on page 2.
@skinny puppy--LOL now that really does reek of 'scared' that you would deliberately twist a quote. What I get from you is what Ray Meyer used to say: "It's all over but the foul shots."
I think the fact that it has Oregon red shows that the pollster may need some help.
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