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25% of the electorate is going to vote for Obama, no matter what. 25% is going to vote AGAINST Obama, no matter what.
The other 50% is up for grabs, and they are going to vote the economy. They are not going to be studying obscure 10 year projection CBO charts- they are going to vote seat-of-the-pants. How are they doing, do they have jobs, do their relatives have jobs, do their neighbors have jobs?
The swing voters are going to be focused on how things are TRENDING.
And,for the past several months, ALL the seat-of-the-pants indicators (jobs, lending, manufacturing, GDP, etc) have been going Obama's way.
Swing voters DO NOT find Romney an attractive candidate, for several reasons. His negatives nationally are higher now than when he started.
Voters are going to be looking for an excuse NOT to have to vote for Weird Willard. An improving economy will give them one .
25% of the electorate is going to vote for Obama, no matter what. 25% is going to vote AGAINST Obama, no matter what.
The other 50% is up for grabs, and they are going to vote the economy. They are not going to be studying obscure 10 year projection CBO charts- they are going to vote seat-of-the-pants. How are they doing, do they have jobs, do their relatives have jobs, do their neighbors have jobs?
The swing voters are going to be focused on how things are TRENDING.
And,for the past several months, ALL the seat-of-the-pants indicators (jobs, lending, manufacturing, GDP, etc) have been going Obama's way.
Swing voters DO NOT find Romney an attractive candidate, for several reasons. His negatives nationally are higher now than when he started.
Voters are going to be looking for an excuse NOT to have to vote for Weird Willard. An improving economy will give them one .
'Swing voters' don't make up 50% of the electorate.While I agree that they aren't going to study 10 year projection cbo charts they mostly aren't going to pay much attention to 10 second news blips about gdp either.They are going to focus on how 'they see' things trending.No one I know 'feels' things are any better then last year or the year before.People are going to have to see their own lives improving before they are going to buy into the 'things are getting better' trend.When 1 in 5 people own a house worth less than what they owe on it and see the businesses they work for threatened with going under they aren't going to be in a rush to jump on the 'things are great' bandwagon.
How people in the 'swing states' perceive things will decide the election.No one in Nevada is going to care if things are great in NewYork if they still suck in Nevada.People often overestimate a presidents ability to affect a lot of economic factors too.Presidents always get blamed for things beyond their control......but often get undeserved credit when things are going good also.
'Swing voters' don't make up 50% of the electorate.While I agree that they aren't going to study 10 year projection cbo charts they mostly aren't going to pay much attention to 10 second news blips about gdp either.They are going to focus on how 'they see' things trending.No one I know 'feels' things are any better then last year or the year before.People are going to have to see their own lives improving before they are going to buy into the 'things are getting better' trend.When 1 in 5 people own a house worth less than what they owe on it and see the businesses they work for threatened with going under they aren't going to be in a rush to jump on the 'things are great' bandwagon.
How people in the 'swing states' perceive things will decide the election.No one in Nevada is going to care if things are great in NewYork if they still suck in Nevada.People often overestimate a presidents ability to affect a lot of economic factors too.Presidents always get blamed for things beyond their control......but often get undeserved credit when things are going good also.
I basically agree with you.
I know it's anecdotal, but my son and two of his friends just ended six month-to-one year unemployed periods by getting jobs in the past month. My son was also able to get health insurance for the first time as an adult, thanks to Obamacare.
Like I said, anecdotal, but if my experience is being repeated across the country, well... Perceptions often lag, but if enough people start to see similar improvements in their own lives, then, it is reasonable to expect that, justified or not, Obama stands to benefit, and the case for Romney gets weaker.
I know it's anecdotal, but my son and two of his friends just ended six month-to-one year unemployed periods by getting jobs in the past month. My son was also able to get health insurance for the first time as an adult, thanks to Obamacare.
Like I said, anecdotal, but if my experience is being repeated across the country, well... Perceptions often lag, but if enough people start to see similar improvements in their own lives, then, it is reasonable to expect that, justified or not, Obama stands to benefit, and the case for Romney gets weaker.
Well "if my experience is being repeated across the country" and "if enough people start to see similar improvements in their own lives" are key to the success of your hypothesis.I'm not sure things will change enough between now and November even if they are trending better for the perception to catch up with the reality even if the trend is real and sustainable.
Your experience will 'need' to be repeated in a few key states.Obama is going to win quite a few like California regardless.The republican nominee is going to win quite a few regardless also.'Your experience' will need to be repeated in places like Nevada,Pennsylvania,Ohio,Colorado,and Florida.I think Obama will win fewer states this time but if things are 'perceived' as improving in the economy he certainly has a better chance than he does now.The main thing people like about Romney is that they think he can turn the economy around.If he gets elected and the economy was rebounding anyway he will get all the credit,even if it rebounds noticibly after the election and before the inauguaration.
It may be too little too late or just in time to save Obama...time will tell.I think its a bit premature for either side to get too giddy.
I for one hope that the economy really is improving. I just don't think Barrack Obama gets any credit if it is. I also think that he over-promised when he was running and right after taking office, but has under-delivered.
Comes down to the same old question (which I've posed elsewhere):
Are you better off today than you were four years ago?
If the answer is yes, then vote for Barry. If the answer is no, then vote for Willard or whoever the GOP nominee is. And this is 100% fair because Barry was tossing that very quote from Ronald Reagan a lot when he was running in 2008.
I also think that he over-promised when he was running and right after taking office, but has under-delivered.
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You got that right!I shook my head daily at the non-stop promises he made in the last campaign and couldn't believe how many people just nodded their heads and talked about how great everything would be as soon as he got in.It was so over the top that Hillary Clinton was even making fun of it....Once the nomination is settled clips from 2008 should be Romneys best friend
You got that right!I shook my head daily at the non-stop promises he made in the last campaign and couldn't believe how many people just nodded their heads and talked about how great everything would be as soon as he got in.It was so over the top that Hillary Clinton was even making fun of it....Once the nomination is settled clips from 2008 should be Romneys best friend
Too true! How well will Barack Obama deal with Barack Obama blasting himself over running up more debt than any President in US history? He raked GWB over the coals for it, so how does he explain the fact that he was vastly worse? How do you respond when you see Barack Obama telling the world that he has 4 years to get the USA turned around and prosperous again? All of that is going to be a tough sell!!
We'll see how it all plays out. At this point we don't actually know that we are in a full recovery. I hope we are, but two months just isn't enough data to validate the notion that it is a long-term trend. And it's all about the unemployment rate and underemployment rate -- but not necessarily the official ones. You can tweak any statistic to make anything sound good. Hey, a world class salesman can probably convince most people that a crap sandwich is fine dining at its best, but in the end it's still a crap sandwich. Take a bite and you know what you're eating.
Every individual knows for themselves whether they are better off now than they were the day Barack Hussein Obama took office. Some will say yes, some will say no and some will say it's about the same. But that is what the outcome of this election will undoubtedly hinge upon.
25% of the electorate is going to vote for Obama, no matter what. 25% is going to vote AGAINST Obama, no matter what.
The other 50% is up for grabs, and they are going to vote the economy. They are not going to be studying obscure 10 year projection CBO charts- they are going to vote seat-of-the-pants. How are they doing, do they have jobs, do their relatives have jobs, do their neighbors have jobs?
The swing voters are going to be focused on how things are TRENDING.
And,for the past several months, ALL the seat-of-the-pants indicators (jobs, lending, manufacturing, GDP, etc) have been going Obama's way.
Swing voters DO NOT find Romney an attractive candidate, for several reasons. His negatives nationally are higher now than when he started.
Voters are going to be looking for an excuse NOT to have to vote for Weird Willard. An improving economy will give them one .
And you think a 2/10 of a percent drop in unemployment will matter? Nobody really even feels the effects of that, even if it was real and not manufactured. People in this country know the economy is still very bad and I don't see it being miraculously better by the fall of this year either. You don't put people through three years of hell and then say...."oh lookie, I could have been doing better' and they buy it.
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