INTRADE: How is Super Tuesday shaping up? (as of 02-29-12) (Congress, interview)

[dixiegirl7]

Here is a snapshot of how Intrade sees Super Tuesday so far. I do find that Intrade is more reactive, but it can be surprisingly predictive.



INTRADE: How is Super Tuesday shaping up? (as of 02-29-12)

[wxjay]

I think the Ohio numbers should be reversed for Santorum and Romney. Santorum will do well in Ohio because of the social conservatives there.

[dixiegirl7]

Originally Posted by wxjay

I think the Ohio numbers should be reversed for Santorum and Romney. Santorum will do well in Ohio because of the social conservatives there.

Romney is now leading in some of the polling that will come out in the next day or so. It is close and people are forgetting that Santorum is not on the ballot in three congressional districts...one of them Columbus which will make a difference.

[box_of_zip_disks]

Originally Posted by wxjay

I think the Ohio numbers should be reversed for Santorum and Romney. Santorum will do well in Ohio because of the social conservatives there.

As always it depends on how much Romney spends on tv ads. His weird reaction to screwing up the Blunt amendment question in an interview this morning won't help. Hopefully he'll limit his media appearances between now and Tuesday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/01/us...1&ref=politics

And it looks like he's outspending Santorum nearly 7:1 there, so there ya go.

[nmnita]

I am not sure how much I trust the braakdown, but time will certainly tell. I know Intrade is often correct, but not all the time. too many put too much faith in what they say or print.

[tmsterp]

I would expect those predictions are fairly accurate. I think it's all about Ohio, Oklahoma and Tennessee (the first will decide whether or not this race is over for all intents and purposes, the latter two will decide whether Newt will once again take-up the anti-Romney mantle or if Santorum remains the only alternative). If Santorum wins Ohio, I think Romney could still be in the clear if Newt wins Oklahoma and Tennessee. I don't think he will win Tennesse though.

[dgthree]

Originally Posted by tmsterp

I would expect those predictions are fairly accurate. I think it's all about Ohio, Oklahoma and Tennessee (the first will decide whether or not this race is over for all intents and purposes, the latter two will decide whether Newt will once again take-up the anti-Romney mantle or if Santorum remains the only alternative). If Santorum wins Ohio, I think Romney could still be in the clear if Newt wins Oklahoma and Tennessee. I don't think he will win Tennesse though.

I think Newt has no shot at Oklahoma either. However, he has the 13th and should win Alabama and Mississippi.

[box_of_zip_disks]

Originally Posted by tmsterp

I would expect those predictions are fairly accurate.

Intrade isn't really predicting anything; it's a snapshot of penny stock traders' net activity, which includes strategic shorts on events.

[tmsterp]

Originally Posted by box_of_zip_disks

Intrade isn't really predicting anything; it's a snapshot of penny stock traders' net activity, which includes strategic shorts on events.

So, in short, it's the aggregate of everyone's predictions. I know it's not a poll.

[box_of_zip_disks]

Originally Posted by tmsterp

So, in short, it's the aggregate of everyone's predictions. I know it's not a poll.

It's a little more complicated; a large chunk of intrade activity involves shorting or otherwise driving up and down trade prices to get a favorable sale. I did it last year with Rick Perry by hyping up his price during the Summer and dumping my shares before his first debate.