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Can anyone honestly try and argue that these NBC News/Marist polls are not outliers?
They appear to be outliers and as more polls come in we will see. The polls can be very fluid, but I doubt the big jump is that much for Obama. I still think Obama has a better than 50% shot at winning Ohio and Virginia.
There has been a shift in party identification from a similar poll conducted in October 2008. At that time, 34% of registered voters considered themselves to be Democrats, 28% identified as Republicans, and 38% called themselves independents. Now, those proportions are 36% Democrat, 24% Republican, and 39% independent.
So, in order to get some numbers they like, they needed a 12 point gap between dems/reps.
About DOUBLE the point spread obama won by in 2008.
I seem to remember a more recent election that would NOT justify using such skewed numbers - the 2010 HISTORIC sweep by the GOP.
I don't believe there is a party registration for VA...so HOW did this pollster come by the 12 point chasm between the dems/reps?
Self ID likely, I do agree this poll is an outlier (same thing with the Roanoke poll on the other side of the coin)
the Self ID in VA was Dems +6 in 2008, (no exit polls from 2010 which has no major statewide races)
Using the 08 set of 39-33-27
Obama 49-40 vs Romney
Obama 48-40 vs Romney (with McDonnell as VP)
Obama 53-35 vs Newt
Obama 52-35 vs Paul
Obama 52-34 vs Santorum
That's a little more realistic, and quite a drop for Rick Santorum I must say. I don't think that the spread will be that large if (big if) Obama does win in November, once it's a two man race. There's no doubt he has a healthy lead at this point, but it's definitely not as large as this poll suggests
Self ID likely, I do agree this poll is an outlier (same thing with the Roanoke poll on the other side of the coin)
No, I wouldn't call the Roanoke poll (where Romney led Obama by 1 point) an outlier - another recent poll (a Christopher Newport University/Richmond Times-Dispatch poll) had Romney leading Obama by 3 points.
Hard to read through half that drivel the troll threw out there to get to the results...I can't wait to see fix as one of the people crying in their soup come August when Paul ends up with the most delegates at the convention and they can't stop them from pronouncing Paul the nominee.
Oh dear. Paul is going to somehow win the nomination despite not coming close to winning any states and mostly coming in dead last. Paulites really do live in a magical libertarian fairy land, I guess that's the only way you can be a libertarian in the first place.
Hard to read through half that drivel the troll threw out there to get to the results...I can't wait to see fix as one of the people crying in their soup come August when Paul ends up with the most delegates at the convention and they can't stop them from pronouncing Paul the nominee.
Im not sure what you are counting... here is what I saw as of Monday March 5
Source- National Review online
118 - Mitt Romney
29 - Newt Gingrich
17 - Rick Santorum
8 - Ron Paul
211- unbounded
Oh dear. Paul is going to somehow win the nomination despite not coming close to winning any states and mostly coming in dead last. Paulites really do live in a magical libertarian fairy land, I guess that's the only way you can be a libertarian in the first place.
Oh wow! Another person who doesn't like a whole portion on the political spectrum!
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