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A Republican could take Michigan, but Romney's not the one. There is no way he's going to get it with his remarks about letting Detroit fail.
I live in metro Detroit. While Romney might seem like a relatively nice person to most people around here, basically everybody here chuckles at him being a "Michigander". He left after going to an elite private high school (Cranbrook) and has never looked back.
Headlines are constantly about the auto rebound in this state - I just don't see any possible way Romney takes this state. Most polls I see have Obama with a quite comfortable lead here.
I also think Romney's auto stance is going to hurt him in Ohio. My prediction is Florida goes for Romney and Ohio goes to Obama. Ohio is the number two producer of cars in the country.
I live in metro Detroit. While Romney might seem like a relatively nice person to most people around here, basically everybody here chuckles at him being a "Michigander". He left after going to an elite private high school (Cranbrook) and has never looked back.
Headlines are constantly about the auto rebound in this state - I just don't see any possible way Romney takes this state. Most polls I see have Obama with a quite comfortable lead here.
I have family in Michigan. They say the same thing. I hope Romney tries to get it. It would be a great way to waste some of his money.
Metro Detroit does not turn out a high percentage, and while its wealthy suburb went +14 in 2008, I do not expect that performance to repeat itself. 2012 is not a historic election, and with 16% U6 unemployment, I would expect millions of 2008 BO supporters to switch or stay home.
Now I'm not saying Mi 2012 would not be a stretch, but like many states, its changing. It would have been unthinkable 10 years ago to see a GOP governor again there, and volla that happened. I do not need to guess who the UAW supported.
Metro Detroit does not turn out a high percentage, and while its wealthy suburb went +14 in 2008, I do not expect that performance to repeat itself. 2012 is not a historic election, and with 16% U6 unemployment, I would expect millions of 2008 BO supporters to switch or stay home.
Now I'm not saying Mi 2012 would not be a stretch, but like many states, its changing. It would have been unthinkable 10 years ago to see a GOP governor again there, and volla that happened. I do not need to guess who the UAW supported.
Perception is reality in terms of unemployment rate. It was over 14% a few years ago in this state and is now at 9% (I'm not sure exact numbers). The overwhelming feeling in this state is that the auto rebound is helping this state with a very strong recovery. Michigan certainly isn't a shining beacon of unemployment, but most arguments in this state at the moment are who deserves most credit - Obama or Gov. Snyder (Repub). People are hurting, but momentum is very clearly leaning towards a rebound.
I don't really think the 2010 gov. election is a good thing to look at for Michigan. We'd just finished eight years of Governor Granholm who was basically despised in this state. We'd lost a million jobs under her watch (debatable how much was her fault). Everybody wanted a change and Snyder was the logical change - his opponent (Virg Bernero - Dem mayor of Lansing) was an absolutely miserable politician. I lean left and threw my vote to the Green Party since I didn't like either major candidate.
The current RCP average has Obama +14.0 on Romney in Michigan. Polls are obviously not 100% accurate, but certainly looking good for President Obama at the moment.
The current RCP average has Obama +14.0 on Romney in Michigan. Polls are obviously not 100% accurate, but certainly looking good for President Obama at the moment.
There isn't even a GOP nominee yet. After there is, there will probably be a change.
Could Romney pick off some of the Great Lakes states?
Very unlikely unless the economy slips again between now and November. Even though Michigan is one of several "home" states he claims, his anti-union and anti-worker rhetoric will sink him there and other industrial states.
Iowa?
No chance. That state isn't as nutty as the GOP caucus-goers who went for Santorum.
New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are possibilities and I wouldn't even count Michigan out. They are hurting economically and they have not see the big turnaround the media pretends exists. All of these states that have been decimated by this economy and have not seen much if any recovery are going to be up for grabs.
Romney shot himself in the foot when it comes to MI.
All Obama has to do is run a couple of ads showing that Romney was against the bailout.
To add to that, can he take Massachusetts? He has "home state" advantage, but then Massachusetts tends to go Democratic and is the birthplace of the Kennedys who've been there fora long time...
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Could Romney pick off some of the Great Lakes states?
