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Old 03-08-2012, 07:01 PM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 997,031 times
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Romney will never win Alabama by 10 points, but what motive would a Democratic group like the teachers union have for giving Romney a boost? Also, by likely voters, I'm sure they meant likey likely Republican primary voters. Why would they poll people who couldn't vote in that primary? But even if they did, as we learned in Ohio and Michigan, Democrats love Rick Santorum. That would never help Romney.

If Romney can get Alabama in the win column, regardless of the margin, that is a huge victory. I'm not expecting it, but it's certainly not impossible. The media is already planning ways to downplay it. Count on it - "You know, Romney may have won Alabama, but looking at the exit polls, he's still not as strong as he should be with tea party and strong conservative voters..." Headline the next day - "Despite win in Alabama, Romney campaign still fails to deliver knockout punch to rivals"
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Old 03-08-2012, 07:37 PM
 
4,740 posts, read 9,540,621 times
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tmsterp - good points. Turns out that the AEA poll showing Romney's +10 lead -was- among likely GOP voters, as opposed to the other poll (Romney lead) which polled likely voters only. Alabama has an Open Primary and there are very few contested Democratic Party races - so I expect some poison votes. The AEA doesn't have a great track record of polling the GOP, but maybe they're trying to adjust.
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Old 03-08-2012, 07:39 PM
 
Location: Chicago Area
12,429 posts, read 5,663,875 times
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Somebody needs to to beat Gallup, Rasmussen and PPP over the head and tell them to get us a poll for Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi and Hawaii. We haven't a clue what any of them actually look like right now. These small local pollsters haven't been terribly accurate this year.
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Old 03-08-2012, 08:15 PM
 
8,755 posts, read 9,433,260 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmsterp View Post
Romney will never win Alabama by 10 points, but what motive would a Democratic group like the teachers union have for giving Romney a boost? Also, by likely voters, I'm sure they meant likey likely Republican primary voters. Why would they poll people who couldn't vote in that primary? But even if they did, as we learned in Ohio and Michigan, Democrats love Rick Santorum. That would never help Romney.

If Romney can get Alabama in the win column, regardless of the margin, that is a huge victory. I'm not expecting it, but it's certainly not impossible. The media is already planning ways to downplay it. Count on it - "You know, Romney may have won Alabama, but looking at the exit polls, he's still not as strong as he should be with tea party and strong conservative voters..." Headline the next day - "Despite win in Alabama, Romney campaign still fails to deliver knockout punch to rivals"


The media has definitely been ignoring these recent polls showing his lead in AL. As a matter of fact, they are ignoring the whole process right now it seems, except for Santorum and Newt's constant appearances on Fox News and Sarah Palin's intelligent commentary on it all and how 'she is making herself available to help in any way'...lol. Really? We never would have noticed.
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Old 03-08-2012, 08:56 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,914 posts, read 17,080,492 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by godofthunder9010 View Post
Somebody needs to to beat Gallup, Rasmussen and PPP over the head and tell them to get us a poll for Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi and Hawaii. We haven't a clue what any of them actually look like right now. These small local pollsters haven't been terribly accurate this year.
PPP has said they aren't polling Kansas, but are polling Mississippi and will release those numbers Sunday night.
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Old 03-08-2012, 09:19 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,313 posts, read 42,188,804 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
Romney leading or close in Bama is BIG news. He is NOT expected to win there.
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Old 03-08-2012, 10:36 PM
 
Location: Union Grove, Alabama
38 posts, read 59,160 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Romney leading or close in Bama is BIG news. He is NOT expected to win there.
Romney is definitely being helped by the splitting of the social conservative voters. I think it would be a different story if Newt or Rick had dropped out.
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