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Old 03-10-2012, 01:54 PM
 
Location: Central Ohio
10,834 posts, read 14,940,293 times
Reputation: 16587

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I wonder how Obama will be doing in August when gasoline is $5.50/gallon?

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

Quote:
If Santorum is the Republican nominee, he is up by one point over the president, 46% to 45%. This is the second time since polling began in 2011 that Santorum has had a slight lead over Obama. Romney is the only other candidate to lead the president more than one time in the polls. See tracking history for Obama vs. all four Republican candidates.
Well to consider too is the incumbent rule where most undecided voters go with the challenger. This rule isn't written in stone but oftentimes that is what happens.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...bent_rule.html

Quote:
One of the most cherished rules in political handicapping is the so-called "incumbent rule." The actual "rule," derived from a famous 1989 article by Nick Panagakis, holds that an incumbent under 50 percent in the final poll taken before Election Day will usually go on to lose. But most observers today take a broader view of the "rule," noting that incumbents who fall below 50 percent in polls commissioned even earlier in the cycle frequently go on to lose in the fall.
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Old 03-10-2012, 02:00 PM
 
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Anyone who seriously thinks Obama could lose to Santorum of all people has their head so far up their rear that they're on another planet.
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Old 03-10-2012, 02:10 PM
 
26,680 posts, read 28,678,403 times
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"Shock poll". I could tell by that phrase alone that it came from Drudge Report.

What a joke Matt Drudge is.
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Old 03-10-2012, 02:53 PM
 
Location: Texas
14,975 posts, read 16,466,589 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnUnidentifiedMale View Post
"Shock poll". I could tell by that phrase alone that it came from Drudge Report.

What a joke Matt Drudge is.
It came from Drudge Report? Really?
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Old 03-10-2012, 03:01 PM
 
8,754 posts, read 10,171,305 times
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Once we have a clear cut nominee, this will become even more pronounced.
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Old 03-10-2012, 03:04 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
10,990 posts, read 20,573,451 times
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I'm rooting for Santorum because I believe the part of the Republican Party that he represents needs a test of their viability. If Romney is the candidate they will claim that he wasn't far enough to the right should he loose to Obama and the Republican Party will tear itself apart one more time.
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Old 03-10-2012, 03:06 PM
 
Location: Florida
11,669 posts, read 17,956,053 times
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Not a chance. You have to look at the state by state polls, then factor them into the electoral college. As these polls stand today, Obama will win by a significant margin (327 to 212). The 2012 election will be identical to the 2008 election, with the exception of Indiana turning red again. Obama will win.
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Old 03-10-2012, 05:59 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,325 posts, read 44,956,928 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnUnidentifiedMale View Post
"Shock poll". I could tell by that phrase alone that it came from Drudge Report.

What a joke Matt Drudge is.
Rasmussen...you know, the Left's new favorite pollster.....as long as he has good numbers for obama.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nicet4 View Post
I wonder how Obama will be doing in August when gasoline is $5.50/gallon?

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™





Well to consider too is the incumbent rule where most undecided voters go with the challenger. This rule isn't written in stone but oftentimes that is what happens.

RealClearPolitics - How to Understand the Incumbent Rule
Especially when the incumbent has a record like obama's.

You mean all that "bad" press coming from the GOP nomination process has resulted in obama basically slightly behind or tied with Romney/Santorum?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
Once we have a clear cut nominee, this will become even more pronounced.
Exactly. The main thrust is beating obama, republican voters have figured he's got the best shot.
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Old 03-10-2012, 06:06 PM
 
8,289 posts, read 13,568,938 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Rasmussen...you know, the Left's new favorite pollster.....as long as he has good numbers for obama.



Especially when the incumbent has a record like obama's.

You mean all that "bad" press coming from the GOP nomination process has resulted in obama basically slightly behind or tied with Romney/Santorum?



Exactly. The main thrust is beating obama, republican voters have figured he's got the best shot.


Not exactly the GOP's best shot since all they have shown is a absolute hell bent afront on beating President Obama. Other than that if Romney wins he will "Obama-Lite!
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Old 03-10-2012, 06:15 PM
 
1,013 posts, read 910,548 times
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yep they will elect obama again and hes just in mormon clothing.

lol at gop. sux to be them.

only way they can beat obama is if they re-elect him again its hilarious
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