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Old 04-24-2012, 12:45 AM
 
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Quote:
In a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup, presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney earns 47% of the vote, while President Obama attracts support from 44%. Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™
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Old 04-24-2012, 01:53 AM
 
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The Rasmussen poll is an outlier.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama
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Old 04-24-2012, 04:50 AM
 
Location: Texas
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Has Rasmussen EVER shown a Republican being beat?
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Old 04-24-2012, 05:32 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stillkit View Post
Has Rasmussen EVER shown a Republican being beat?
Their final 2008 poll had Obama by 6. Their house tilt in 2010 over about 100 polls was ~ +4R. I think their internal methodology changed or something because they used to be one of the least error-prone major firms until a couple years ago.
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Old 04-24-2012, 05:34 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stillkit View Post
Has Rasmussen EVER shown a Republican being beat?
Of course not. Hell they had santorum beating Obama
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Old 04-24-2012, 06:00 AM
 
Location: Old Bellevue, WA
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I've often noticed that Rasmussen seems to be a step ahead of others. On Dec 1 they had a poll showing Gingrich at 38% which was at the time a major outlier. IIRC at the time everyone else had him in the low to mid 20s, as he had just started his turn as 'not Romney.' Within 13 days Gingrich hit his peak of 35% in the RCP average, as can be seen on the RCP interactive graph:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

That said, I don't think a Romney-Obama poll means much right now. It shows that Obama is a weak incumbent, with a bad economy and a bunch of scandals in his wake. But we already knew that. We also know that he is a strong campaigner and will have plenty of campaign cash from corporate and other special interests.

Fast and Furious alone shows his capacity to pilot his way thru stormy weather. Here's a scandal where people got killed. We still don't know who issued the orders or signed off on the program, yet it hasn't seemed to affect Obama's popularity in the least.
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Old 04-24-2012, 06:05 AM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
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Funny how that RCP average doesn't include any of the previous Gallup and Rasmussen polls that had Romney leading, yet it has other polls that pre-dated those ones that just happen to show Obama leading
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Old 04-24-2012, 06:08 AM
 
Location: Golden, CO
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Never trumpet the results of a Rasmussen poll. Their methodology is flawed.

Flaws in Rasmussen Methodology

Rasmussen's Polling Methods are Flawed

Quote:
Scott Rasmussen’s method of interviewing by robo calls is suspect. While the phone number is for a “likely voter,” the person who answers the phone could be a 16-year-old, an unregistered voter, a senile grandmother or someone in a playful mood.
The robo calls do not include cell-phone numbers, missing a growing number of younger voters who don’t have landline phones. This is said to have understated Obama’s support in the presidential general election by 3 to 5 percent.
Not surprisingly, Rasmussen is the favorite pollster of Fox News, perhaps because he consistently shows President Obama’s popularity and issue stands to be worse than most other pollsters show.
Rasmussen's sample appears to be only the most partisan electorate, and as such they occasionally get the results of the primaries right, because typically, only the most partisan voters vote in primaries. But, during a general election, quite a number of non-extreme partisans vote, which Rasmussen does not sample as well.

Last edited by Hueffenhardt; 04-24-2012 at 06:29 AM..
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Old 04-24-2012, 06:22 AM
 
Location: USA - midwest
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Default Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: Romney leading Obama nationally by 3 Points

Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post

Maybe you can the election moved up to today...
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Old 04-24-2012, 09:26 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
This is good news for sure. No sitting Pres should be behind at this stage of the game, but remember it is Rasmussen, it is within the margin of error and it is still 6 months before the election. We don't even know who Romney's running mate will be.
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