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NH looks like a looooooooooooong shot for Romney. Aint gonna happen in my opinion.
Latest Iowa Poll: (only one in the last few months)
Obama 51, Romney 41 ( Obama + 10)
The Main stream media will tell you this election will be a nail bitter but if things don't change for Romney in the next few months, the election will be called for Obama real early.
You cherry picked the polls in those states that are most favorable to Obama.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TempesT68
Very true. Everything is leaning very strongly in Obama's favor at the moment and Willard would have to pull off a monumental comeback to even be somewhat in the race.
What the hell? You do realize that Obama is polling below 50% in the most of the swing states in most polls (and is slightly ahead in NC and FL at this point according to the poll averages)? An incumbent being below 50% is not a good sign for the incumbent, unless of course third parties are predicted to get a large share of the vote. What's even more important is that an incumbent's approval rating is basically his/her "ceiling" in so far as a percentage of the vote and Obama's remains around 47% nationally - and under 50% in states like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, and even Pennsylvania.
I don't see Romney winning: MI, VA, IA, NH, OH, CO.
Romney has chances in FL, NC, MO, AZ
That would put the best case scenario in my opinion for Romney at 253 to Obama's 303.
But things are far out. Things can change. After McCain chose his VP. states like Montana, That one district in Nebraska, Indiana and other states that went heavily for Bush moved towards Obama.
So Romneys actions over the next couple of months can gain him ground or put more states in Obama's territory.
Anyway. I don't think Romney is going to win Ohio and VA, and I don't see any path to victory for him without these.
IF Romney is not winning VA and OH, he is not winning MI, WI etc
The polls in Virginia are tightening, I think he wins. I think a Colorado win is also doable for Romney. Ohio is going to be difficult but if he works the Cincinnati area and the Southern area there are reliable white Dems that can be flipped. If I was Romney I'd also spend a lot of time in Pennsylvania in particular the suburbs around Philly.
Obama has more paths to victory as most Dems do because they have the big states lean far to the Left. Also I wouldn't sleep on New Jersey.
The polls in Virginia are tightening, I think he wins. I think a Colorado win is also doable for Romney. Ohio is going to be difficult but if he works the Cincinnati area and the Southern area there are reliable white Dems that can be flipped. If I was Romney I'd also spend a lot of time in Pennsylvania in particular the suburbs around Philly.
Obama has more paths to victory as most Dems do because they have the big states lean far to the Left. Also I wouldn't sleep on New Jersey.
Sure let them elect a vulture capitalist romney to make things better for them
If they do so, they are only voting against their best interests.
A very detailed article by Ronald Brownstein a few weeks ago sums up the GOPs problem. I say the problem has been, and will continue to be, demographics. Hispanic Americans exhibit similar voting patterns to African Americans. The GOP is becoming 'the white man's party.'
The Democrats have 242 votes as their floor, in the last 5 presidential elections. These comprise the 18 'blue wall' states. In the next 10-20 years, the entire desert southwest (including Texas) will be gone, I believe, for Democrats. New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado are solid blue, and Arizona and Texas are aqua blue.
The only way the GOP can remain relevant on a national level would be to put a freeze on immigration.
A very detailed article by Ronald Brownstein a few weeks ago sums up the GOPs problem. I say the problem has been, and will continue to be, demographics. Hispanic Americans exhibit similar voting patterns to African Americans. The GOP is becoming 'the white man's party.'
The Democrats have 242 votes as their floor, in the last 5 presidential elections. These comprise the 18 'blue wall' states. In the next 10-20 years, the entire desert southwest (including Texas) will be gone, I believe, for Democrats. New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado are solid blue, and Arizona and Texas are aqua blue.
The only way the GOP can remain relevant on a national level would be to put a freeze on immigration.
Even if they put a freeze on immigration it won't help. The fact is that American born Hispanic and Black Americans have higher birth rates than White Americans. The median age for White Americans is about 10 years higher than the other two groups. White Americans also have considerably higher death rates than other groups when you combine that with the fact that about 80% of Americans over the age of 65 are non-Hispanic Whites that handwritten is on the wall in big letters. Simply put we are in the end game of non-Hispanic White Americans being a demographic majority in the United States of America.
The Republican Party as it is presently constituted simply is not ready to deal with that reality. The GOP is like a super nova. As the demographic change more and more it will go farther and farther to the right until the party either changes or implodes upon itself.
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