Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Yes, there are. Obama's approval remains below 50% in the vast majority of polling - both nationally and in states like Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and even Pennsylvania.
Incumbents basically have a ceiling of their approval rating - or actually generally a few points below their approval rating - when looking at the percentage of the vote they receive. And that's among those who actually vote. Republicans/Republican-leaning independents are more likely to vote. (Even in 2004, with a strong anti-war sentiment and relatively high turnout among Democrats/Democratic-leaning independents, Bush's approval was only about 51% in most polling around the time of the election but 53% according to exit polls of voters. He got only about 51% of the vote...he underperformed his approval as most incumbents do.)
So Obama is the one with more of a ceiling. His approval is stuck at 47%-48% - likely closer to 45%-46% among those who will actually vote. Can it come up? Sure. Is it likely to come up significantly before the election? Probably not. It's just as likely to go down. It all depends on how the economy does and on the campaign. And before you start with the demographic bullsh*t...his approval is basically around what you would expect his percentage of the vote to be among blacks and Hispanics (and people who identify as "liberal"). As far as the campaign, the Romney campaign + the Super PAC's supporting him will likely have significantly more money than the Obama campaign + the Super PAC's supporting him. If this is the case, which is very, very likely, it will be the first time an incumbent president has actually had a disadvantage as far as campaign funding.
Back to demographics - maybe you should read the graphs you post. Romney leads even among 18-29 year old whites. And, given that he leads by 10 or more in every age group of whites 30 or older, I'm sure that he leads with white women in each one of these groups as well. So, while Romney may have a problem with minorities, he certainly does not have a problem with young and middle-aged white men or with white women. Obama has problems with these groups.
More to counteract the idea that "no one" likes Romney his favorability per Gallup is 50% with his unfavorability at 41%. That means his net favorability is +9%. Obama's favorability is 52%, while his unfavorability is 46%, making his net favorability +6%. So Romney's net favorability is higher than Obama's.
In 2008, a lot of Hillary suppoters weren't happy with Obama as the nominee. This means nothing...in May. Furthermore, even if they're not happy with him, they will turn out to vote Obama out in large numbers. The same Republicans who dislike Romney the most HATE Obama.
All those independents that you are counting on just might not be there.
Republicans, invariably a pessimistic bunch about their chances to defeat President Obama in the fall, have been experiencing some green shoots of optimism of late as polls show their nominee, Mitt Romney, already nipping at Obama’s heels.
And with the president’s job approval rating hovering in the high 40s, Republicans should be optimistic. The nation is in a lousy mood, the economy is poor and a strong anti-incumbent sentiment still pervades. That is not a good climate for Obama.
But, the latest FOX News poll shows the path to victory for Obama: an enthusiastic Democratic base, a handful of holdout Republicans and grossed-out independents.
The poll shows Obama with his largest lead over Romney, 7 points, since last June. Last month, the poll showed the two men in a dead heat.
Obama can credit his good showing the in the poll mostly to the flight of independent voters.
The president’s support among Democrats ticked up 1 point to 88 percent while Romney’s support among Republicans fell by 4 points. That wouldn’t be such a big deal on its own. But factor in the 14 percent spike in independent voters who are undecided, and you have the makings of an Obama victory.
Quote:
But there are considerably more Democrats than Republicans in the country, so the only way the GOP can win elections is by winning the independent vote. As younger voters become increasingly unwilling to form the lifelong party affiliations of their parents’ generation, the task becomes increasingly important.
Quote:
If the electorate in November looks like the sample in the latest FOX News poll, Romney would lose in a rout.
Sorry but your entitled to your opinion but there simply aren't enough people that agree with you.
Mitt Romney has a ceiling and that ceiling is outside of older White males he's not really that popular. The more he panders to that group the more he alienates everybody else.
You and the other Obama lovers have the most pathetic sense of entitlement. A majority of Americans do not approve of the job Obama is doing and a majority of Americans do not feel he deserves to be re-elected. I know that's hard for you all to grasp. Sure, he may manage to get re-elected but it's certainly not for certain. No president with approval ratings as low as his has ever been re-elected.
You are one to talk. I have never seen such cheerleading before when your team is losing. Thats the only thing you got right is the bold.
You know absolutely nothing about me. Sorry bust your bubble but I joined the Army out of high school worked my way through college and invested my money and then continued my education.
Good for you. I wasn't trying to be offensive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JazzyTallGuy
Save you 'entitlement' B.S. for somebody else.
You do have a sense of entitlement for Obama to be re-elected. I never said you had a sense of entitlement in general.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JazzyTallGuy
These are George W. Bush job approval ratings for each year he held office.
Currently President Obama is around 49% in his fourth year. He's really not that far from where George W. Bush was when he got re-elected.
In his 13th quarter (January 20-April 19 of this year), Obama's average approval per Gallup was 45.3%. In Bush's 13th quarter, his average approval per Gallup was 51%.
Bush's approval per Gallup went down over the late spring and early summer and then rebounded to 50.2% in his 15th quarter (which would have been from July 20-October 19 of 2004):
The Fox News poll was an outlier. It had Obama up by 7, while some other polls around the same time had Romney up. Most polls showed them basically tied.
Also, independents have been breaking more towards Romney than they were in the vast majority of polls a few months ago so this poll would be an outlier if correct. Romney is leading among independents in most polls.
Furthermore, the commentary is wrong when you consider the incumbent rule. Obama being at 46% even with a skewed sample (that poll had an 8-point party ID advantage for Democrats; in 2008, a perfect year for Democrats, Democrats only had a 7-point party ID advantage) is not a good sign for him, even if he was way ahead.
You are one to talk. I have never seen such cheerleading before when your team is losing. Thats the only thing you got right is the bold.
Our team is winning right now when you consider Obama's approval rating and that undecideds break for the challenger. Some posters on this forum say the incumbent rule doesn't usually apply in presidential elections but it has every time except 2004. And, in 2004, it likely didn't because Bush's approval was higher among Republicans/Republican-leaning independents (the people who are actually more likely to vote) and because his approval was rebounding right around the time of the election.
Look, Obama may very well be re-elected. But Romney may very well be elected as well.
It could be because Barack Obama absolutely sucks and is hands down the worst POTUS of all time.
someone is trolling...........obama is a very average potus. He doesn't even crack the top 10 for bad presidents. people are to quick to foget about ronald reagan who is highly reguarded as the worst potus of all time. almost every problem we face right now is because of Reagan. Most right wingers will even admit that
I'm not so sure of these results. Paul has received more donations from vets than all the candidates combined. Willard was coming in last. They do not like Willard and the far right's warmongering, nor does anyone with any sanity.
Ron Paul received more donations from active duty military.
That started to shift to the president in March, although Mr. Paul still led overall.
It is not clear to me whether we are talking about all vets, active duty, retired... when talking about Mr. Romney having a huge lead.
And, as has been noted, it may simply be a function of the gender gap, since so many older vets are white men who pretty much always vote republican.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I have never seen such cheerleading before when your team is losing. Thats the only thing you got right is the bold.
