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If it simply stays close, Obama LOSES. Incumbents who do not poll with significant leads (beyond minor margin of error) lose almost every time. Last minute deicders always go anti incumbent when times are bad.
The polls won't stay this close. After the Republican convention, they will all take a bounce in Romney's favor, and things will get crazy in October, just as they always do. By late October, one or the other will break away, and that's when the consistency of the polls begins to be a predictor.
This has been shown many times. This far out, given the current state of the nation, any prediction either way is just good for lining the bottom of the bird cage.
If Mittens comes up with a jobs plan that could be taken seriously he could very well win.Getting rid of the EPA is not a jobs plan and neither is tax cuts for the wealthy.
Ending Obamacare and other draconian regulations, building the Keystone Pipeline and letting the oil, gas and coal industries grow IS a jobs plan.
actually that depends on what polls you are referring to: most of Aug 2008 Obama was leading McCain, the exception might have been the last few days of the months when McCain announced his running mate. That usually gives a candidate a boost. In July 2008 Obama was ahaed of McCain by about 6 points according to the the NY Times poll. Not, that any of this makes a big difference and we have to remember, in 2008 we did not have a sitting Pres...I just wanted to set the record straight, your information isn't 100% correct.
Nita
Please point out anywhere in my statement that I was not correct.
Quote:
McCain was polling ahead of Obama in August 2008. All the experts were forecasting a tight race then, too.
The polls won't stay this close. After the Republican convention, they will all take a bounce in Romney's favor, and things will get crazy in October, just as they always do. By late October, one or the other will break away, and that's when the consistency of the polls begins to be a predictor.
This has been shown many times. This far out, given the current state of the nation, any prediction either way is just good for lining the bottom of the bird cage.
Obama is toast. Unemployment up and the stock market down does not bode well for re-election.
Obama is going to lose, it is now only a matter of the margin. I would see him winning, at most, 232 electoral votes. However, I think that 160 is more realistic.
It's a Rasmussen poll...every REAL poll has Obama ahead. People vote against where they believe the blame lies. Most people know Bush tanked the economy. It's like how Hoover tanked the economy and America was still in Depression after 4 yrs of FDR, but you didn't hear anyone but nutjobs yelling "FDR hasnt fixed the economy, take him out!"
This is the daily tracking poll for Sat. June 2. Presumably it somewhat reflects the May jobs report, but Rasmussen says that it should take about a week before that is fully reflected in polling. So in other words, it could well get even worse for Pres. Obama by this time next week. Other major pollsters listed on RCP all have Obama with a lead.
Anyway, I thought it could be an interesting little test of my observation that the other major pollsters tend to lag, but end up in agreement w/ Rasmussen's 'outliers.'
At the same time it is a test of the claim from the left that Rasmussen is Republican-biased. Let's see how things look a week from now. On Sat, June 9 we should have a good idea of whether this 4 pt lead turns out to be outlier or harbinger.
Of course it won't constitute proof, nor end the argument either way, but perhaps a telltale indicator.
National Presidential polls are a waste of time and newsprint. The only polls that matter are those in a handful of close swing states such as Ohio, Florida, Nevada and Iowa.
Ras. has been pretty consistently swinging from Obama +3 to Romney +3 and back again for the last few weeks. Today it's Romney +3, and I'd bet $100 that in a week, their poll will show Obama +3.
Gallup has been far more consistent than Ras. this cycle.
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