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Please, Obama is going to take Michigan and most of the Midwest, aside from Indiana, no matter what a single poll result says. It's delusional to believe otherwise.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbcmh81
Just like those who believe Romney is going to "surge" in states like Michigan were never going to vote for Obama. Michigan is not a swing state, it's going to stay blue. The GOP should focus on real swing states instead of acting like Romney is such a fantastic candidate that he's going to sweep Obama in a Reagan-style landslide. Not going to happen, even if the economy continues to falter, the race will likely still end up being close. If Obama is mediocre, Romney is moreso for being incapable of really taking advantage.
I think it's very unlikely that Romney will win MI and that it's fairly unlikely he will win WI (look at the Walker recall election exit poll results when actually adjusted to reflect the actual outcome of the recall election, those had the Obama vs. Romney race in the state pretty much tied). That being said, it's highly delusional to believe that Ohio isn't in play (and Romney is actually ahead in two recent OH polls - the two most recent that I'm aware of). It was even in 2008. Obama won by about 4 points in a perfect year for Democrats. Bush won the state in 2000 and 2004. As far as Wisconsin - W came within 0.5% of winning the state both times.
Not to mention IA (a swing state) or MO (a state that will almost certainly go to Romney) or the Plains states, if you want to consider them a part of the Midwest (which will definitely go to Romney).
Incumbents basically have a ceiling of around their approval rating as a percentage of the vote they can receive. Obama is going to have a very, very tough time winning states where his approval is below 50% unless third party candidates are able to get a significant percentage of the vote. So, while I don't really think his approval is less than 50% in Michigan, if it is - Obama is not in good shape at all. Of course Obama's approval could come up between now and the election, but it is only likely to if there is significant improvement in the economy.
Romney does not need MI to win. Obama does. MI is to Obama what NC or even IN or MO are to Romney. Any poll which shows Obama's approval significantly below 50% in MI or shows him behind in MI is a bad sign for him.
Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 06-12-2012 at 02:29 PM..
More importantly, Clinton's approval rating was significantly over 50% in June 1996 and was close to 60% at the time of the 1996 election...but he still got slightly less than 50% of the popular vote.
I think it's very unlikely that Romney will win MI and that it's fairly unlikely he will win WI (look at the Walker recall election exit poll results when actually adjusted to reflect the actual outcome of the recall election, those had the Obama vs. Romney race in the state pretty much tied). That being said, it's highly delusional to believe that Ohio isn't in play (and Romney is actually ahead in two recent OH polls - the two most recent that I'm aware of). It was even in 2008. Obama won by about 4 points in a perfect year for Democrats. Bush won the state in 2000 and 2004. As far as Wisconsin - W came within 0.5% of winning the state both times.
Not to mention IA (a swing state) or MO (a state that will almost certainly go to Romney) or the Plains states, if you want to consider them a part of the Midwest (which will definitely go to Romney).
Incumbents basically have a ceiling of around their approval rating as a percentage of the vote they can receive. Obama is going to have a very, very tough time winning states where his approval is below 50% unless third party candidates are able to get a significant percentage of the vote. So, while I don't really think his approval is less than 50% in Michigan, if it is - Obama is not in good shape at all. Of course Obama's approval could come up between now and the election, but it is only likely to if there is significant improvement in the economy.
Romney does not need MI to win. Obama does. MI is to Obama what NC or even IN or MO are to Romney. Any poll which shows Obama's approval significantly below 50% in MI or shows him behind in MI is a bad sign for him.
Actually, per Gallup, Obama's approval rating in Michigan is 48.1% and moving slightly lower. Any Democrat guaranteeing a Michigan win for Obama is arrogant or a fool.
Additionally, Obama is doing some advertising here...why? He is worried about losing it.
With the fantastic record of Republican Governors like Scott Walker turning their states into surpluses from the democrats failures you will see more and more states firing Obama and his band of over spending idiots.
Obama is in deep trouble in almost every state except those looney bird states that have way too many *******s in them.
Well except not in trouble in my stupid ass State of Calif, the morons here will vote for him again, as they vote over and over again, for the clowns, screwing this State royally. Get a clue! Learn from the morons screwing this State.
Now screwing the Country over again for another 4 yrs, don't think so.
My birthstate of R.I. i know so many people there, a lot of people i know who live there are switching their vote this time around to Romeny. They want no part of Obama. While some still do.
My friends who live there, can't stand Obama, infact i hear from one almost every day, drving me nuts about what a freaking jerk we have as President. She keeps on saying, what the hell Hope, and where the hell is the Change.
California-jewel---As a six-decade resident of Los Angeles, I share your pain. Those blockheads in Suckramento have really shafted the middle class in this state thanks to rampant environmentalist fanatacism.
There is no reason for gasoline in this state to be $.70/gallon higher here than it is in my brother's hometown of Albuquerque.
Well except not in trouble in my stupid ass State of Calif, the morons here will vote for him again, as they vote over and over again, for the clowns, screwing this State royally. Get a clue! Learn from the morons screwing this State.
Now screwing the Country over again for another 4 yrs, don't think so.
My birthstate of R.I. i know so many people there, a lot of people i know who live there are switching their vote this time around to Romeny. They want no part of Obama. While some still do.
My friends who live there, can't stand Obama, infact i hear from one almost every day, drving me nuts about what a freaking jerk we have as President. She keeps on saying, what the hell Hope, and where the hell is the Change.
Funny about you Obama haters - when he took office, the economy was already in collapse, remember? Wall Street repubs crashed it in 2007 - forgot?
It means nothing to you that Obama has gained more private-sector jobs, and lost more public-sector jobs than Bush. So you hate the guy for doing exactly what you want! Speaks of either an ulterior motive, or mental illness.
It's repubs who tried to run this country into the ground, and now you all want to go back to 2007 and complete the job.
California-jewel---As a six-decade resident of Los Angeles, I share your pain. Those blockheads in Suckramento have really shafted the middle class in this state thanks to rampant environmentalist fanatacism.
There is no reason for gasoline in this state to be $.70/gallon higher here than it is in my brother's hometown of Albuquerque.
If Obama loses in Michigan, he's done.
Obama controls gas prices now?
Remember, Fox said the President has nothing to do with gas prices. You believe them don't you?
here is another dose of reality. democrats kept calling for walker to be ousted from Wisconsin right up until the recall happened because their polls kept saying that barrett would win. looks more like the polls really dont know jack when it comes to an actual election.
Obama controls gas prices now?
Remember, Fox said the President has nothing to do with gas prices. You believe them don't you?
That was only when a conservative was President.
Obama is a liberal, so it's different.
Fox News, Fair and Balanced indeed!
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Please, Obama is going to take Michigan and most of the Midwest, aside from Indiana, no matter what a single poll result says. It's delusional to believe otherwise.
