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Old 06-26-2012, 10:24 PM
 
Location: Texas
14,969 posts, read 14,976,909 times
Reputation: 4574

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When you look at PPP state polling this election cycle, you see that they are frequently an outlier. When you look at the internals, you see they oversample Democrats most of the time. And now Nate Silver has found that PPP polls this election cycle have a "house effect" that leans to Democrats by over 3 points.

By comparison, he found that Rasmussen polls have a "house effect" of only 1.3 points that leans to Republicans.

http://www.coloradopeakpolitics.com/...emocrats-badly

Even their polls in the days immediately before the two non-primary elections they polled this year that have already taken place (these are the only two I'm aware of) - the Arizona 8th congressional district special election and the Walker recall election - were significantly more favorable to Democrats than the election results.

Their last Walker recall election poll had Walker up by just 3, meaning it was about 4 points more favorable to Barrett than the actual result.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p...se_WI_6312.pdf

Their last AZ 8th congressional district special election poll had Barber (the Democrat) up by 12, meaning it was about 6 points more favorable to him than the actual result.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p...ase_AZ_611.pdf

And - like it or not - Rasmussen was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2008.

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academ...20election.pdf
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Old 06-27-2012, 12:35 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
35,976 posts, read 36,049,062 times
Reputation: 55647
In the Wisconsin recall election, President Obama apparently knew the 3 Democrat polls were BS and that's why he didn't show up to support a losing cause.

Let us recall that in Wisconsin, 3 Democrat polling outfits said that the recall election was statistically tied right up until the day of election. But when Marquette University (not a Democrat polling outfit) came out with a 7 point spread in favor of Walker the month before election day in Wisconsin, the Democrats called their poll ridiculous and anything else you could think of. As it turned out, Marquette had the spread right on the money.

This is from May 30, 2012:

"Wisconsin Democrats are firing back at the latest Marquette University Law School poll of the state recall election, which put Republican Gov. Scott Walker ahead of Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by a 7-point margin — in an effort to tamp down negative public perception as they head into the election’s final week. “Clearly this poll is out of step with everything else that is out there, and clearly with the political reality,” state Democratic Party Chairman Mike Tate said Wednesday on a conference call with reporters. “There have been three polls out in the last few days that have shown a dead heat, clearly a competitive race.” Tate was referring to three internal polls that have been released in the last few days from the 1) Barrett campaign, 2) the Democratic Governors Association and 3) the liberal Greater Wisconsin Committee, which have ranged from a tie to a Walker lead of 3 points... They raised suspicions about who might be paying for the [Marquette] poll, and whether the state’s conservative think tanks were involved. They also sharply criticized professor Charles Franklin, who led the (Marquette) poll."

Wisconsin Dems Dispute Marquette Poll | TPM2012

See they demonized the pollster (Marquette) who as it turned out got it right and pointed to three Democrat pollsters instead as the big truth telling prognosticators. But apparently, President Obama knew what was really going on and that's why he was a no show in Wisconsin. Originally, everyone (including me) thought it was Obama's fault that Barrett didn't win because he didn't show up there for a close race but the reality was a month before it was already known it was not going to be close but a Democrat loss and the 3 Democrat polling outfits were biased in favor of Barrett and Marquette was more likely accurate.

So, if some Democrat polling outfit starts saying some of these Romney/Obama or Senate races in some states are close, I wouldn't believe them for a second. They didn't just taint the 3 biased pollsters' reputations in Wisconsin but they tainted all Democrat pollsters when they lied and the State Democrat Chairman doubled down and swore by it.

And Real Clear Politics with its poll averaging is a bunch of hooey, too.
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Old 06-27-2012, 12:38 AM
 
11,531 posts, read 9,344,355 times
Reputation: 3580
Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok View Post
Why do people who laugh at Rasmussen polls take PPP polls seriously?

When you look at PPP state polling this election cycle, you see that they are frequently an outlier.
You tell us, you created a thread based on PPP polls. How quickly we forget

//www.city-data.com/forum/elect...-tie-ohio.html
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Old 06-27-2012, 01:20 AM
 
8,755 posts, read 9,259,809 times
Reputation: 1429
Because those polls (Democratic leaning) say what they want them to say and therefore prop up their candidate...that is why they believe and tout them. When those polls don't say what they want them to say they just ignore them, but that rarely happens, especially with PPP.
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Old 06-27-2012, 06:53 AM
 
Location: Tampa Florida
22,232 posts, read 16,277,903 times
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If one wants an actual look at public opinion, best option is RCP which averages many. But most people only want to look a the poll that tells them what they want to see.
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Old 06-27-2012, 07:31 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
35,976 posts, read 36,049,062 times
Reputation: 55647
Quote:
Originally Posted by florida.bob View Post
If one wants an actual look at public opinion, best option is RCP which averages many. But most people only want to look a the poll that tells them what they want to see.
RCP is a bunch of hooey. You don't average polls with different polling methodologies who don't even poll the same groups of people (example: registered voters, likely voters, all adults).
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