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Old 08-11-2012, 06:55 AM
 
Location: Maryland
18,633 posts, read 18,669,468 times
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So this past week three national polls of registered voters by major news organizations showed Obama with a substantial lead. The media ran with them as more proof Obama's hit jobs are working. These polls were of about 1000 people.

Yet ignored by the media and liberal posters here is that Gallup Tracking polls have consistently showed a tie. Gallup polls 3000 people. Seems to me their polling is just as accurate and worthy of press attention.

More 2008 Obama Voters Than McCain Voters Switching Sides
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Old 08-11-2012, 07:09 AM
 
Location: On the "Left Coast", somewhere in "the Land of Fruits & Nuts"
8,864 posts, read 9,936,786 times
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Nate Silver over at 538 uses a lot of interesting statistical tools and models, and though not due to Gallup, he seems to share your skepticism or at least reserve re: many of the current polls.

Aug. 9: National Polls Shouldn't Panic Romney - NYTimes.com
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Old 08-11-2012, 08:27 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
37,136 posts, read 38,798,143 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EdwardA View Post
So this past week three national polls of registered voters by major news organizations showed Obama with a substantial lead. The media ran with them as more proof Obama's hit jobs are working. These polls were of about 1000 people.

Yet ignored by the media and liberal posters here is that Gallup Tracking polls have consistently showed a tie. Gallup polls 3000 people. Seems to me their polling is just as accurate and worthy of press attention.

More 2008 Obama Voters Than McCain Voters Switching Sides
I have ignored Gallup in the past because many of their poll sample was simply adults rather than registered voters or likely voters. Who cares what all adults think if it doesn't translate to Election Day? You know, for all we know for example, 80% of the people they poll could be ineligible to vote or not even registered so who cares what Gallup says about Obama's approval rating, for example, if if that's who they survey and those people don't vote? I don't even think Obama would care, high or low score of a poll simply of adults. I just got out of the habit of looking at their poll results because of that. Now, they may survey likely voters or registered voters but they lost me a long time ago unless someone here calls their poll to my attention.

Marquette University impresses me. They did a good job with the Walker recall coming the closest to the actual outcome vote difference and taking all kinds of public scorn from the Democrats prior to that election. In the 2008 presidential election Rasmussen and Pew came the closest to predicting the actual outcome of the presidential race. I stick with the pollsters based on best performance.
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Old 08-11-2012, 08:36 AM
NCN
 
Location: NC/SC Border Patrol
21,195 posts, read 24,469,267 times
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I just want to let those of you that depend on polls know that some of us do not answer questions on the telephone. I go into a booth to vote so my vote can be private. Why would I tell someone I have never met on the telephone how I choose to vote? It is none of their business how I am planning to vote, but I am planning to vote. Sometimes I can change my mind as I step into the booth, so a poll is worth just about as much as the common person pays to hear it. Election day votes are the ones that count. I love it when the polls get it wrong.
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Old 08-11-2012, 09:22 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
37,136 posts, read 38,798,143 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NCN View Post
I just want to let those of you that depend on polls know that some of us do not answer questions on the telephone. I go into a booth to vote so my vote can be private. Why would I tell someone I have never met on the telephone how I choose to vote? It is none of their business how I am planning to vote, but I am planning to vote. Sometimes I can change my mind as I step into the booth, so a poll is worth just about as much as the common person pays to hear it. Election day votes are the ones that count. I love it when the polls get it wrong.
That's what I love about exit polling.
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Old 08-11-2012, 09:25 AM
 
28,589 posts, read 16,894,647 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EdwardA View Post
So this past week three national polls of registered voters by major news organizations showed Obama with a substantial lead. The media ran with them as more proof Obama's hit jobs are working. These polls were of about 1000 people.

Yet ignored by the media and liberal posters here is that Gallup Tracking polls have consistently showed a tie. Gallup polls 3000 people. Seems to me their polling is just as accurate and worthy of press attention.

More 2008 Obama Voters Than McCain Voters Switching Sides
The liberal media only shows liberal propaganda. They have effectively ceased to be involved with "news" and only distribute propaganda.

Witness the outrage that liberals have for Fox news, which is the only conservative leaning television station. The libs have ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, and CNN, yet cannot stand ONE DISSENTING OPINION. Why? Libs are totalitarians and cannot stand free speech.
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Old 08-11-2012, 11:35 AM
 
Location: On the "Left Coast", somewhere in "the Land of Fruits & Nuts"
8,864 posts, read 9,936,786 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
The liberal media only shows liberal propaganda. They have effectively ceased to be involved with "news" and only distribute propaganda.

Witness the outrage that liberals have for Fox news, which is the only conservative leaning television station. The libs have ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, and CNN, yet cannot stand ONE DISSENTING OPINION. Why? Libs are totalitarians and cannot stand free speech.
Dang!! Then what's the world coming to when you can't even trust FOX anymore?!

Fox News poll: Obama's lead grows as Romney's support slips
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Old 08-11-2012, 01:14 PM
 
54,138 posts, read 23,257,558 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EdwardA View Post
So this past week three national polls of registered voters by major news organizations showed Obama with a substantial lead. The media ran with them as more proof Obama's hit jobs are working. These polls were of about 1000 people.

Yet ignored by the media and liberal posters here is that Gallup Tracking polls have consistently showed a tie. Gallup polls 3000 people. Seems to me their polling is just as accurate and worthy of press attention.

More 2008 Obama Voters Than McCain Voters Switching Sides
Most polls talk to more dems then repubs, therefore skewing the results.
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Old 08-11-2012, 05:59 PM
 
5,787 posts, read 4,529,814 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LauraC View Post
That's what I love about exit polling.
People lie all the time in exit polls
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Old 08-11-2012, 06:04 PM
 
5,787 posts, read 4,529,814 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mateo45 View Post
Dang!! Then what's the world coming to when you can't even trust FOX anymore?!

Fox News poll: Obama's lead grows as Romney's support slips


Despite what Liberals lamely say about FOX News, their polls consistently are skewed in favor of Democrats with around a +9 point sampling skew.

The poll above is exactly skewed +9 in favor of Dems....you can follow the link right in the article and see that for yourself.

Gallop does poll REGISTERED voters and it doesn't skew the sampling. They are the oldest and now the gold standard in polling. They've learned in all that time how to do polls correctly.

The other most accurate poll (statistically tied with Gallop) is Rassmussen.
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