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Old 08-25-2012, 08:09 AM
 
Location: Texas
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Poll shows Akin's slide in Missouri Senate race : Stltoday

This poll seems more trustworthy than the recent PPP and Rasmussen polls in MO.
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Old 08-25-2012, 08:14 AM
Status: "Biden won." (set 24 days ago)
 
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McCaskill winning is more important than Obama winning Missouri. Akin's blunder might force Romney to spend more to defend Missouri.
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Old 08-25-2012, 08:28 AM
 
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It pretty much backs up what I said on another thread--he's losing the suburban and urban areas by a large margin, but down only slightly in out state Missouri--they don't think he said anything wrong. I don't think Akin can win, but as long as Akin stays in the race, I don't think a write in can either unless it's another well known evangelical who's never said anything out loud about rape, and even then it would be really tough for the write in to get enough votes to beat McCaskill because of the split vote. I don't have any idea who that candidate would be either.
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Old 08-25-2012, 08:33 AM
Status: "Biden won." (set 24 days ago)
 
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The conservative activist base is doing a good job of keeping the Senate Democratic.
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Old 08-25-2012, 08:34 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winter_Sucks View Post
McCaskill winning is more important than Obama winning Missouri. Akin's blunder might force Romney to spend more to defend Missouri.
That's exactly right. The democrats never planned to win MO in the presidential race to begin with. This race is about control of the Senate. It doesn't look like the fallout has harmed Romney so far though.
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Old 08-25-2012, 08:37 AM
Status: "Biden won." (set 24 days ago)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mb1547 View Post
That's exactly right. The democrats never planned to win MO in the presidential race to begin with. This race is about control of the Senate. It doesn't look like the fallout has harmed Romney so far though.
It probably won't although he could get dragged into the debate. I think the thing that could hurt Romney is that it might hurt GOP enthusiasm and increase Democrat enthusiasm. Romney might have to spend more in Missouri than the campaign planned on. He still probably has the state in his column, but this adds some unwanted uncertainties.
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Old 08-25-2012, 08:40 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winter_Sucks View Post
It probably won't although he could get dragged into the debate. I think the thing that could hurt Romney is that it might hurt GOP enthusiasm and increase Democrat enthusiasm. Romney might have to spend more in Missouri than the campaign planned on. He still probably has the state in his column, but this adds some unwanted uncertainties.
I think you are absolutely right that it hurts the republican BRAND, and it could impact voter enthusiasm.
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Old 08-25-2012, 08:43 AM
 
Location: Texas
14,969 posts, read 15,339,840 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winter_Sucks View Post
McCaskill winning is more important than Obama winning Missouri. Akin's blunder might force Romney to spend more to defend Missouri.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winter_Sucks View Post
It probably won't although he could get dragged into the debate. I think the thing that could hurt Romney is that it might hurt GOP enthusiasm and increase Democrat enthusiasm. Romney might have to spend more in Missouri than the campaign planned on. He still probably has the state in his column, but this adds some unwanted uncertainties.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mb1547 View Post
I think you are absolutely right that it hurts the republican BRAND, and it could impact voter enthusiasm.
Romney's going to have much more of an ability after the convention to force Obama to defend states than Obama will to force Romney to defend states. He's going to have a lot more money to spend than Obama will after the convention. Romney has enough of a cushion in MO that voter enthusiasm/turnout won't seriously threaten his chances there. Not to mention Obama's approval is simply wayyyy too low for him to have any chance in MO regardless of what horse race polls say. McCaskill's approval would ordinarily be way too low for her to have any chance to win also, but she might pull it out because she is running against this Akin character.
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Old 08-25-2012, 08:46 AM
Status: "Biden won." (set 24 days ago)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok View Post
Romney's going to have much more of an ability after the convention to force Obama to defend states than Obama will to force Romney to defend states. He's going to have a lot more money to spend than Obama will after the convention. Romney has enough of a cushion in MO that voter enthusiasm/turnout won't seriously threaten his chances there.
It probably won't, but the whole Akin thing won't help. If Romney gets dragged into the debate and is seen as tied to Akin it could hurt his chances with independent and moderate voters.
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Old 08-25-2012, 09:46 AM
 
10,092 posts, read 7,628,860 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok View Post
Romney's going to have much more of an ability after the convention to force Obama to defend states than Obama will to force Romney to defend states. He's going to have a lot more money to spend than Obama will after the convention. Romney has enough of a cushion in MO that voter enthusiasm/turnout won't seriously threaten his chances there. Not to mention Obama's approval is simply wayyyy too low for him to have any chance in MO regardless of what horse race polls say. McCaskill's approval would ordinarily be way too low for her to have any chance to win also, but she might pull it out because she is running against this Akin character.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winter_Sucks View Post
It probably won't, but the whole Akin thing won't help. If Romney gets dragged into the debate and is seen as tied to Akin it could hurt his chances with independent and moderate voters.

Because of Ryan's stand with Akin on personhood/no abortion under any circumstances, it does pull Romney and the national GOP platform into the Akin mess. I think they'd rather talk about just about anything except for that right now, but it forces the issue. Like I said, it's a R brand issue. I don't think it will make that much of a difference for the Romney race in missouri (you're right--maybe spend a little more, but they have a lot of money), but it may shine a light on other races around the country where the candidate has similar views to Akin and Ryan. Those candidates may be forced to defend that position when they'd rather be talking about pretty much anything else.

Last edited by mb1547; 08-25-2012 at 10:50 AM..
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