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Give Florida to Romney, it doesn't matter. He's not close.
As I told my staunch democratic father in law back in 2004, this might be an election that in hindsight both parties wished they'd lost.
I think 2012 is the same way.
If Obama wins, that's 8 years, no excuses....and he will have to weather the storm of voter rage in the 2014 midterms when the many clueless suddenly realize....hey, I have to pay insurance premiums. (This coming from someone that actually supports Obamacare, I just realize how stupid the average voter is)
I predict an Obama win, a 2014 midterm that goes heavily republican and a lame duck Obama giving the republicans everything they want in his last 2 years....while the reps still whine about him being a socialist blah blah blah and the dems rationalize the wave of republican legislations as good because Obama signed it.
Funny stuff. Reminds me of the faux anti-war types around here and their statements after Obama won about how different it would be and....then the rationalizing started....then acceptance. Heckuva job guys!
You guys have already lost and you don't know it. You are going to get Obama (R) but pat yourselves on the back for not electing Romney (R).
As I told my staunch democratic father in law back in 2004, this might be an election that in hindsight both parties wished they'd lost.
I think 2012 is the same way.
If Obama wins, that's 8 years, no excuses....and he will have to weather the storm of voter rage in the 2014 midterms when the many clueless suddenly realize....hey, I have to pay insurance premiums. (This coming from someone that actually supports Obamacare, I just realize how stupid the average voter is)
I predict an Obama win, a 2014 midterm that goes heavily republican and a lame duck Obama giving the republicans everything they want in his last 2 years....while the reps still whine about him being a socialist blah blah blah and the dems rationalize the wave of republican legislations as good because Obama signed it.
Funny stuff. Reminds me of the faux anti-war types around here and their statements after Obama won about how different it would be and....then the rationalizing started....then acceptance. Heckuva job guys!
You guys have already lost and you don't know it. You are going to get Obama (R) but pat yourselves on the back for not electing Romney (R).
Well they are Dems like that here for sure, but I'm not one of them. I voted for Jill Stein, and I would have voted for her had I lived in a swing state. So I don't have any hopes Obama will do anything worthwhile. First thing he will do is make a deal with the GOP to cut Social Security benefits, and lead us into perpetual war in the Middle East.
Do I love that Romney lost? Sure. Right wing ideology is vile, racist and so harmful to middle class interests.
Well they are Dems like that here for sure, but I'm not one of them. I voted for Jill Stein, and I would have voted for her had I lived in a swing state. So I don't have any hopes Obama will do anything worthwhile. First thing he will do is make a deal with the GOP to cut Social Security benefits, and lead us into perpetual war.
I don't think he'll cut social security benefits for most people, I think the deal to be made, by either candidate, is to enact means testing.
I don't think he'll cut social security benefits for most people, I think the deal to be made, by either candidate, is to enact means testing.
He's a huge backstabber.
Al that needs to be done with SS is to lift the tax cap on higher incomes, and ever so slightly raise the contribution level for all workers.
And I haven't heard means testing put out for this round of bargaining. More likely tie it a different economic indicator which will cut future benefits for our kids by 10% I'd imagine.
Shameful.
In this wealthy nation I couldn't look my kids in the face if I agreed to cut their SS so that the rich would not have to endure a small increase in their tax rate.
Obama will fall on Intrade today. Gallup will be back and Rasmussen will be releasing a boat load of polls. Both firms are tapping into a more conservative LV model and will go for Romney. This will lead to a drop in averages for Obama and a drop in Intrade.
This thread has gone into full-blown Obama triumphalism, and all the rest of the Romney posters seem to be in hiding.
My question is, does this somehow get even more over-the-top from here, building every day until 6 PM on Nov 6th?
Meanwhile, we have yet to hear from the voters.
2008 featured a vortex of factors in Obama's favor. A totally inept campaign by McCain and the worst financial panic in memory kept Republicans away from the polls. An unprecedented turnout by hopeful youth and aspiring minority voters, seeking the chance to make history, flooded the polls.
I sincerely believe that if you are not even considering the possibility that both of these 2008 trends will unwind, much to Obama's detriment, you are making a mistake. Where was the 2008 electorate in 2010, when the Dems lost a historic 64 seats (and a supposedly "permanent" majority)? Why would it come back in 2012? After four years of the Great Obama Stagnation, won't the youth vote be just a tad more apathetic? Unemployment has toasted young people and minority groups much harder than anyone else. Hope and Change are casualties of four years of actual governance.
The numbers on early voting and number of absentee ballots returned etc. seem to point out a distinct falloff from the 2008 Dem edge, even in battleground states like Ohio and Florida. And the hypothetical Republican disenchantment with Romney seems to have blown away. Indications are strong that Republicans are more motivated and more likely to vote than Democrats.
My point is, Gallup just might be right. In which case, the triumphalism of Obama supporters in the days ahead of Nov 6th may end up looking very, very silly in the cold light of dawn on November 7th.
As a market kind of guy, Intrade (a market) is very troubling to me. Obama looks like the favorite. But it isn't in the bag.
Romney will win many of the states that went to Bush in 2004, such as Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina. The prediction assumes that Obama maintains the Democratic win streak in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. I am somewhat confident about those states, as an Obama supporter. However, the prediction also depends on Colorado and New Hampshire going O's way. Those I'm less confident about, especially Colorado, which has swung back and forth over the years.
I know the Romney campaign would find it hard to divert attention away from Ohio, because he needs that state to have a chance. But I'd also double-up on Colorado and NH in the last few days as well. Those are the typically mildly-left leaning strongholds he could burglarize for votes. If Romney wins either of those two states, I think he could pull off the election.
Polls were very much in favor of Carter....we know how that ended
Keep dreaming and enjoying! 5 more days!
No, they weren't. Reagan led the poll aggregate from June to Election Day. The only one dreaming is you, who is completely clueless as to what happened in 1980.
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Is the triumphalism peaking, or will it build?
