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Obama will fall on Intrade today. Gallup will be back and Rasmussen will be releasing a boat load of polls. Both firms are tapping into a more conservative LV model and will go for Romney. This will lead to a drop in averages for Obama and a drop in Intrade.
I think that even they are running out of spin. Especially Rasmussen. They're even out of line with more right-leaning polling firms.
3) Intrade: 68.3% (Obama) vs 32.1% (Romney) Intrade - Home
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It is time to face the music Republicans! Prepare for an Obama victory, so come election day you guys don't riot. Obama has held the lead most of the year and is now shooting up the past couple of days.
Yipeeeeeeeeeee!
You can be happy about Obama for five more days. Hooray!
Back in the real world, Romney is leading in the polls, the economy is terrible, and Obama has a disaster to explain in Libya.
Let's vote.
Your "intrade" bit is ridiculous. I set up an account to skin a few liberals and found that the number of shares "traded" is so ridiculously low that it was not worth it. Small sample sizes (and a sample not representative of the country as a whole) can be very misleading. If there were several thousand shares that could have been purchased, I certainly would have bought shares for Romney. Also, keep in mind that there is not a "one share- one vote" mechanism there.
Gee- I guess if you knew anything about statistics and sampling errors, you would have known this. Carry on
It doesn't matter which polling model you use. 1980, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2010, all of the models still show an Obama win. Even on the really good 2010 Republican turn out, it doesn't give Romney the win.
Ugh - the City Data site...is sooooo ????? Every statement has to be said just correctly and besure to quote or you will be misinterpreted......I said Black and of course...someone else will say No it is really dark dark gray.....excuse me while I pull out my blonde hairs.......or are they strawberry blonde????? aaaaahhhhhhh!!!!!!
This thread has gone into full-blown Obama triumphalism, and all the rest of the Romney posters seem to be in hiding.
My question is, does this somehow get even more over-the-top from here, building every day until 6 PM on Nov 6th?
Meanwhile, we have yet to hear from the voters.
2008 featured a vortex of factors in Obama's favor. A totally inept campaign by McCain and the worst financial panic in memory kept Republicans away from the polls. An unprecedented turnout by hopeful youth and aspiring minority voters, seeking the chance to make history, flooded the polls.
I sincerely believe that if you are not even considering the possibility that both of these 2008 trends will unwind, much to Obama's detriment, you are making a mistake. Where was the 2008 electorate in 2010, when the Dems lost a historic 64 seats (and a supposedly "permanent" majority)? Why would it come back in 2012? After four years of the Great Obama Stagnation, won't the youth vote be just a tad more apathetic? Unemployment has toasted young people and minority groups much harder than anyone else. Hope and Change are casualties of four years of actual governance.
The numbers on early voting and number of absentee ballots returned etc. seem to point out a distinct falloff from the 2008 Dem edge, even in battleground states like Ohio and Florida. And the hypothetical Republican disenchantment with Romney seems to have blown away. Indications are strong that Republicans are more motivated and more likely to vote than Democrats.
My point is, Gallup just might be right. In which case, the triumphalism of Obama supporters in the days ahead of Nov 6th may end up looking very, very silly in the cold light of dawn on November 7th.
As a market kind of guy, Intrade (a market) is very troubling to me. Obama looks like the favorite. But it isn't in the bag.
Agreed. There could be some surprises waiting. Sandy has definitely been a tailwind for Obama though. Hard to compare to a competent executive in a crisis, especially when you more or less said you would do away with the FEMA, federal assistance model. After the Denver debacle, Obama has been quite competent on the home stretch.
But voter turnout could well be a major deciding factor.
Well they are Dems like that here for sure, but I'm not one of them. I voted for Jill Stein, and I would have voted for her had I lived in a swing state. So I don't have any hopes Obama will do anything worthwhile. First thing he will do is make a deal with the GOP to cut Social Security benefits, and lead us into perpetual war in the Middle East.
Do I love that Romney lost? Sure. Right wing ideology is vile, racist and so harmful to middle class interests.
You really fell for the hackneyed social security cuts scare? Really? That old chestnut gets rolled out every 4 years.
No one will OVERTLY cut SS. No one.
What they would do is just print more money and then push down the reality of inflation. Then you blame everybody else, especially "evil businesses" for raising prices. That's how you stick it too old people because most people in the US lack the education to understand that making $100 only buy $90 worth of stuff is just as much of a cut as reducing the benefit to $90.
Increasing taxes, cutting benefits are tough sells....so you have to sneak in the back door.
P.S. Not sure what day you think it is today but Romney hasn't lost yet. Do I think Obama will probably win? Yes...but not by much and it all teeters on a couple swing states so Romney may win after all.
Agreed. There could be some surprises waiting. Sandy has definitely been a tailwind for Obama though. Hard to compare to a competent executive in a crisis, especially when you more or less said you would do away with the FEMA, federal assistance model. After the Denver debacle, Obama has been quite competent on the home stretch.
But voter turnout could well be a major deciding factor.
Obama's gotv teeam is doing a great job on voter turnout....
But voter turnout could well be a major deciding factor.
You nailed it right there.
Obama in pretty much every poll has a bigger gap in his numbers between registered voters and likely voters than Romney does.
That's why this thread is brain dead....claiming the election is in the bag when you have seirous voter apathy is about the best thing you can do....if you are a Romney supporter.
538 this morning has Obama over 300 on projected electoral vote and at 79% chance of winning the election, the highest it has been in some time. Gallup will be back today and more Rasmussen surveys will be coming in that favor Romney, so we will see how things shape up later.
The sad part about this election is Dem's know when they are losing or winning and will acknowledge as much, for example during the 1st debate when Obama was soundly beaten. Now GOP'ers, on the other hand, cannot and will not admit they are losing this election and that is truly sad. I mean in 2008 supporters were actually saying Palin was ready to step into the Oval Office if needed. The lunacy ceases to amaze me. Anyone with half a brain knew that was sheer foolishness. I keep hearing my I'm gonna lose my employer based healthcare and my taxes are gonna go up. Miraculously, my healthcare is still intact and my wait to see my doctor was shorter than usual -- no extreme waiting that the fear mongers had promised. Additionally, just received my property tax statement and my taxes are nice and low (lower than I thought). What the GOP is pushing simply flies in the face of reality. Obama has been a very good President -- my personal economic status couldn't be better and for these reasons Obama deserves my vote.
Virginia early vote low, Obama making only one stop there. Florida Early vote advantage down to 60K from 250K in 2008, remember Obama only won FL by 2 back then. Let's see Colorado EV gap closed. Pew and Gallup say Romney actually has EV advantage a sharp reversal from '08.
Oh and it looks like the evangicals are popping up ready to elect Romney and defeat same sex marriage across the land.
Obama spending all of his time in the Midwest furiously trying to maintain his firewall yet libs desperately cling to polls with dubious records. I hope there are sufficient mental health professionals on hand Tuesday night to treat all the shocked liberals across the land. Things could get ugly.
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